Kim Muir 2024

[greenasgrass]

If Firm Footings goes here I will be raging.
There’s your thread.

[greenasgrass]

Ok then

Cool Survivor 14s win only
Love that staying novice hurdle form and he’s a plot a million miles away.
Next!

[FinalFurlong91]

With the Irish national so close will be tough to figure out what runs here

[Venture to Cognac]

Thanks for the thread Grass

A race where I like a decent long ranger, but Midnight Our Fred was my main hope, and he’s got zero chance of getting in, so I doubt he’ll even get an entry. Gars De Sceaux was another I liked at start of year, but he’s been unconvincing

Royal Thief and Western Zara both ran well in it last year, and I’d be interested in them, while Latitude remains of big interest

First race I’ll look at when the entries come out this week, and off current mark, I’d not be surprised to see Panda Boy in there too

[IanDavies]

For me, you cannot have a bet in this without knowing who is jocked up on what as the difference between the best and worst amateurs is far greater than the difference between the best and worst professionals.

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[Venture to Cognac]

Pleased that Midnight Our Fred got his entry, and I’d be mad keen on him, but he surely doesn’t get in. Same applies to Read To Return.

There’s no point putting up my shortlist, as there’s fourteen horses on it, twelve of them Irish, so sensible call is to wait until Final Decs, which I’ll more or less do, however there’s one I think that’s the wrong price.

Venetia always to be feared in this, and I’ve seen enough of Christopher Wood this year, to take an early chance, and I always like have to have an Antepost in this. I’ll probably add Midnight Our Fred with the NRNB angle anyway, and Christopher Wood is not even near the top of that shortlist, but I think the 66’s is decent

Christopher Wood 66’s EW 5Pls NRNB

[botchy1]

Would the FAV receive a handicap mark based on his Irish chase rating or seen as he has not run in the UK over fences would it be based off his UK hurdles rating ?

Thanks in advance, i have no idea how it works

[TheTinMan87]

I presume this is Good Time Jonny? Probably somewhere in between Botchy. I think there’s still a chance he won’t be below 145 here, he was actually assessed as having run to 149 on his last UK hurdles run at Aintree. What tends to happen over here is you run off your hurdles mark as a novice chaser if you want to run in novice handicaps, need 3 runs to be allowed to run in a decent handicap, whereas in Ireland they start from scratch and they’ve decided initially it was 135 and then they’ve since dropped that to 133. Obviously he’s been running in races over trips too short. Just as an example of one that has happened over here, Apple Away hasn’t run in a handicap yet but is entered in the Ultima and here at the festival, she would have had to run in novice handicaps off her hurdles mark of 141 if they’d gone that way and there were suitable races but she’s now been dropped down to 137 on what she’s done over fences which is lower than her hurdles mark. She’s actually quite interesting wherever she goes I think if its a handicap.

FWIW connections also have an entry in a pertemps qualifier at Naas and he’s also entered in the Pertemps final, obviously needs to qualify first (top 4 finish). My guess is they’ll get him qualified and see which handicap mark suits them best for the festival when the weights are out.

[botchy1]

Thank you Tinman, i really appreciate your help on that.

[Venture to Cognac]

Bit daft having three this far out, but one of my bigger betting races, so comfortable with three this far out.

Cooled on Christopher Wood slightly, but as it’s The Kim Muir, I’ll keep him for now.

Has to be a good chance none of these will get in. I’d definitely love to see Irish pair get in. Midnight Our Fred holds an entry Sunday at Leopardstown

Christopher Wood 66’s EW5Pls NRNB
Midnight Our Fred 33’s EW5Pls NRNB
Read To Return 20’s NRNB

[IanDavies]

Do you know who will be riding your interesting trio, Bobby?

I feel jockeyship is a big factor in this contest.

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[TakeYourTime]

Indigo Breeze and Read To Return are the two I’m thinking of backing. Both come with risks attached. Indigo Breeze hasn’t been seen for a year and has left Gordon for P2P trainer Eugene O’Sullivan. Read To Return seems unlikely to get in at this stage.

Read To Return 20s
Indigo Breeze 33s

[IanDavies]

If Indigo Breeze gets in, I’d expect the riding arrangements to be a positive.

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[Venture to Cognac]

Sorry Ian, I just clocked your post.

I used to try and work out the bookings way in advance. I’d always look to the obvious ones like Codd, Waley-Cohen, O’Connor, Mullins, and Walsh.

I don’t really bother as much now, and (just personally), I don’t think there’s anywhere near as big a gulf as there used to be, between the top amateurs and the rest. Not that I’d be too downbeat if I had one of the bigger names up top, and I’d be delighted to see Patrick Mullins up

I’d look at Billy Coonan for Read To Return, after the shenanigans in November, while I’d assume Dara McGill for Fred. I can take my pick for Christopher Wood from that yard. Probably immaterial for mine though, as they surely won’t get in

[IanDavies]

Thanks for the reply, Bobby.

Game of opinions and, while I’d say you tend to get the cream of the amateurs riding in the Kim Muir, some are still better than others and some are better value for their claims than others.

It’s not a race I’d have a bet in before seeing or knowing the riding arrangements, but if it works for you, it works for you.

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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[DBRDBR]

Where it all began won the Irish National Trial. Don’t know if he is heading here, but with NRNB that is not a problem. Don’t think the handicapper has been to harsh on him. He could stay on here a power up the hill.

Where it all began 20/1 EW

[stilvi]

I think it’s Irish National bound, but as you say nothing lost.

[Author]

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