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Kentucky Derby Analysis

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  • #1767
    Biovalhorse
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    • Total Posts 12

    After plotting all 20 entrants, I’ve determined that there are three worthy of my plays.<br> <br>Brother Derek, his win 04/08/06 in the Santa Anita Derby was awesome. The duration from that race to the Kentucky Derby is "one-full-cycle" which is the perfect scenario for the horse to be rested and fresh. His final workout on 05/01/06 is perfectly aligned, as are his prior workouts on 04/24 and 04/17. The one drawback to making Brother Derek my top selection is that from the Santa Anita Derby to his first serious public workout on 04/17, the horse was only rested 9 days. This might be OK, but he should have had a longer break.<br> <br>Bob and John, his win on 04/08/06 in the Wood Memorial was a powerful race on a wet and sloppy track. The duration from that race to the Kentucky Derby is ALSO "one-full-cycle", which is perfection as stated above. His workout pattern, with his final workout on 04/30/06 is right on target as are his prior workouts on 04/24, and 04/18. Bob and John also fails to become my top selection for the same reasoning, being rested only 10 days from his win in the Wood Memorial. This also might be OK but not to be my top selection.<br> <br>Private Vow, did not win his last race 04/15/06 in the Arkansas Derby, and was beaten by two horses that he will be facing in the Kentucky Derby, Lawyer Ron and Steppenwolfer. In fact Private Vow has been beaten by Lawyer Ron in his last two race appearances. However based on my analysis of all the entries in this year’s Kentucky Derby, Private Vow is coming into this race with the look of a horse sitting on the race of his life. His last two races were evenly spaced, 04/15 and 03/18. His workout on 05/01/06 is in perfect alignment to have him on his toes when the gates open on Saturday. The Kentucky Derby will only be his third race this year and Private Vow has the look of a horse that has been expressly pointed for this race. He was one of the higher rated horses last year as a two year old and will now move into the elite. Private Vow is my selection to win the Kentucky Derby.<br> <br>Do not discount the prior two horses, Brother Derek and Bob and John, which must be used in the exacta and trifecta wagers.<br>

    #61386
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    A good summary and I’m not overly familiar with the system which you use but the first horse I throw out is one who’s run a HUGE Beyer last time out, think this year it was Sinister Minister – more likely than not a non-stayer with Beyer’s like that.

    Second up are those who’ve had a tough campaign – Brother Derek, Barbaro (backed him ante-post earlier this year so can’t get out of this one) amongst others and I like to see a horse train up to the Derby as opposed to train into.  Steady improvement in each run as seen by Point Determined – will stay on too :)

    #61387
    Biovalhorse
    Member
    • Total Posts 12

    Irish, have you looked closely at my selection? The morning line is listed at 50-1. Take another look and let me know what you think. Visit my home page for the system. Milton.

    #61388
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    Looks a solid horse, two runs is more like the kind of thing I like to see going into the Derby.

    I can’t find a link to your website though could you post it please?

    #61389
    Biovalhorse
    Member
    • Total Posts 12
    #61390
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    Cheers :)

    #61391
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    It looks good, read the website and the analysis of the Kentucky Derby and it’s never something I’ve properly thought about.

    May well buy the book when I graduate, I’ve bought enough from the US for my course so one more won’t kill me.  Private Vow does look good based on what your website says, do you think a Biorhythm system would work in all racing, say Jump and flat?

    #61392
    Biovalhorse
    Member
    • Total Posts 12

    Irish, I’ve tried to use this angle on everyday races but there are too many variables. As a bettor, you really are in the dark as far as what are the intentions of the trainer. Is the horse ready for his best effort or are they just getting him ready for another race down the road? In regards to this upcoming Kentucky Derby, we all know that this is THE race that their horses are being prepared for, and by analyzing the race and workout patterns of all the entrants, I was able to find a few that in my opinion, have been primed perfectly for their optimun effort. What my book outlines are training patterns that should be followed to realize each horse’s true potential. I’ve said too much, can’t wait until Saturday. Thanks for listening, Milton.

    #61393
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3181

    Thanks Milton.  Strikes me as being a great system for US racing where the workouts are regular, timed, open etc but not so much for that of the UK with the number of private training establishments numbering well over those who allow the public to view their workouts.

    Good luck for the weekend, it’s unoriginal but I fancy Balance in the Oaks and Gorella in the Woodford Reserve.

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