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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Kauto Star's RPR

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 26 total)
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  • #620
    Sailing Shoes
    Member
    • Total Posts 368

    True TDK,

    The horse made mistakes – I would have the rating slightly the other way around – surely those mistakes didn’t cost him as much ground as they could have. Jumping is part and parcel of the game and should be taken into account.

    If the King George was run again and KS made the same mistakes – he might have lost more lengths.

    #34575
    Sailing Shoes
    Member
    • Total Posts 368

    Totally agree TDK and it is where any rating system will fall down – personal opinion. All people want from a rating system is an accurate and consistent approach.

    How far do you take the personal opinion?

    "I’m rating this horse much higher because if the race was on soft ground instead of firm he would have run better?"

    "I’m rating this horse lower because the jockey clearly gave the ride of the day?" etc…….

    #34576
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Couldnt agree more….

    Whilst any rating system will have an element of personal opinion, ignoring or excusing a fundamental element of the race is simply crazy

    #34577
    johnjdonoghue
    Member
    • Total Posts 994

    Totally agree with TDK.

    So in a flat race will Mason adjust his figures for horses that don’t break quickly out of the gates….

    JohnJ.

    #34578
    Salselon
    Member
    • Total Posts 883

    It’s amazing how they’ve used the fact Exotic Dancer [/i]must have improved 10 pounds or so to justify keeping KS at a very high rating.

    #34579
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Hasnt he improved 10lbs using Racing Demon as a yardstick? Far more relevant too than this complete crap with people getting worked up about the fact that ED was "only beaten eight lengths"

    #34580
    Sailing Shoes
    Member
    • Total Posts 368

    True Salselon,

    There is nothing wrong with just saying – it wasn’t his best performance  – A couple of rank bad mistakes, ridden a bit closer to the pace than normal.

    I don’t use ratings or compile them – but if I did I’d say it was probably quite few pounds below what he has previously achieved. Having said that, there is reason to believe he could have won the race by a lot further.

    #34581
    Bosra Shambles
    Member
    • Total Posts 14

    Doesn’t it all depend on what you want from ratings? Are ratings to be compiled only for historical purposes, therefore being worked out only on what actually happened in a race and not taking into account factors such as ease of victory, jumping errors, trouble in running etc, or are they to predict what the horse will be capable of producing in the future, in which case all these things need to be taken into account.

    #34582
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Anyone that doesn’t understand why ratings compilers add on what they think a horse is value extra for should view the nursery in which Mastership won at Wolverhampton last Saturday. The horse won a neck, literally without coming off the bridle, on bare form arguably not needing to improve at all. Will the BHB assessor only raise his mark 2 lb? Not a chance. Therefore I think it is necessary to make an estimation in some cases for what a horse had in hand. Otherwise such horses will come out with very little chance on adjusted ratings and the rating will not reflect their chance.

    #34583
    empty walletempty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    DJ

    <br>I think the BHB handicappers has to take ease of victory into account (shame they don’t do the same with not off’s) commercial rating compilers don’t

    #34584
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8781

    A thread on which we all agree – we must surely be wrong in that case!

    I echo TDK’s sentiments in the opening post. Spot on.

    #34585
    empty walletempty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    It’s all guessing TDK

    <br>Ballpark figures, yes, accurate, no

    #34586
    Racing Daily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1364

    I don’t see it as simple as accounting for ‘ease of victory’.  That is a gimme, but the horse made mistakes and that shouldn’t be used to bump up his rating.  In fact, it should detract from it.<br>Should we rate BoS as a 175 horse, based only on his Irish runs?  If BoS is a 175 horse in Ire, and a 155 horse over here, is it not logical to rate the horse 165?<br>KS put in a 170 performance, jumping errors taken into account.  Is not jumping the name of the game?  I can see no logical reason to ignore the jumping errors to artificially boost KS’s rating.

    #34587
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    Presumably anyone pricing Mastership up for his next race won’t be offering 10/1 "because that is all his bare form entitles him to".

    I imagine that an odds-compiler is more likely to "guess" (i.e. use his expertise) how much more was in the locker and put the beast in at, say, 6/4 instead.

    The same sorts of imperatives apply to a commercial  handicapper, who will be using the same sorts of expert skills to make his numbers useful.

    Rating horses simply on the result, with no allowance for the circumstances, would be commercial suicide and went out of fashion about 20 years ago.

    #34588
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    FWIW, I would not be happy in giving Kauto Star extra on account of his mistakes the other day, however.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 26 total)
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