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The way I see the Gold Cup is that Denman at his best is far better than the rest of the 3 mile chasing division and just makes the rest look silly. Kauto star at his best is a freak of nature and has always made his opposition look silly.
The two are facing each other for the first time and we can only really guess what is between them at their best. At the prices of each horse I couldnt really have a bet on either and to pick an e/w horse to take 3rd place makes no sense to me as a punter.
My gut feeling would be:
Kauto – Denman – Kicking King/Exotic Dancer
If anyone is a diehard fan of either horse and thinks their price looks value then by all means have a bet but this is just a spectating race to me.
Thanks for giving us permission to back either of the front two in the market, Bulwark…and here was me wandering if I would ever be allowed to play ante-post at 5/4.
As likeable as Exotic Dancer is – a Gold Cup winner in any other era – I just can’t see how he’ll cope with either Denman or my preferred winner, Kauto Star. The class the Nicholls runners exude is beyond belief, but I can only see the former setting it up for his stablemate however he runs (which will surely be to take it up over a mile out and stretch the field – he’ll be no good matching Kauto Star for a turn of foot).
Kicking King is probably good enough to challenge for fourth place, but to come back from the layoff he has had and shake up the likes of Kauto Star, Denman and Exotic Dancer just doesn’t look plausible. His victory over Take The Stand is hardly stunning form, and neither is a King George win over Kingscliff nor the head beating of Monkerhostin. He’s a place lay for me…the biggest of the Festival.
Did I mention I thought Kauto Star will win
ok First three
1. Kaotu Star
2. don’t care
3. care even less
Kauto Star
Turpin Green
DenmanI just cannot decide between Kauto Star or Denman.
On all known form Kauto Star is the better horse and should win by a couple of lengths, even with him being prone to throw in the odd heartstopping jump.
However, I am still not convinced we have seen the best of Denman and I think there is still some scope for improvement, the question being is there enough scope to beat his stablemate?
The one aspect of yesterdays race that pleased me was Ollie Magern didn’t allow Denman to dictate the race and have everything his own way.
Eqally I was pleased with the way Denman responded – there was always a nagging doubt he may have sulked when challenged, he showed he wouldn’t throw in the towel.
As the Gold Cup currently stands it is a race to watch and savour than one for a "serious" investment.
Having said that I must admit to having a modest each way bet on Exotic Dancer, I’m not confident he could win the race as it currently stands, however who knows if either of the big two will drop out and at the 12/1 I think he is overpeiced.
Chill out marb!
Even if KS loses, Fist has still got all those lady boys to ease his tension!
I do think that 12/1 (16s on betfair) or so about Exotic dancer is too big a race for such a talented horse. What this does tell us is that we are in for one helluva race if a quality horse like that is not in single figures
I would prefer to have ane ach way bet on him rather then take the same price on either of the big 2 to win (although i think i will saviour the race rather then taint it with a bet)
I would love for kicking king to be back to his best however the form of his return to the racetrack has not been upheld since. Both Newmill and nicname were dissapointing for me. You can even tie in Nicknames form with the poor runs of schindlers hunt and Mansony at cheltenham.
Time will tell in few weeks and providing they all get there safely it will be a joy to watch the tactics of the race as it unfolds. I think the buzz at cheltenham that day will be immense
although kauto’s jumping has improved this year, it’s hard to forget the blunders of last year. last years gold cup was run at a slow pace and his jumping was never really put to a true test. But with the extra injection of pace by denman, he may be suspectible to a race losing mistake
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Same old Kauto Star/Exotic Dancer forecast for me, must be the only result in racing where the price gets better every time they do it.
Same old Kauto Star/Exotic Dancer forecast for me, must be the only result in racing where the price gets better every time they do it.
Dylan Thomas/Youmzain
for those that that don’t remember the ali/foreman fight : http://www.mininova.org/tor/289177
however whilst that was also two greats, the fight was a bit of a bore, purist wise, although i suppose it was a clever job from one to one, so to speak – i hope the gold cup is more exciting though
i’m in three minds, do i wait till just before the off and add up all the votes on this thread and go with the most, back ’em both if they are both 6/4 or better for ‘free money’ or just wait and see what zoso lays …
… choices, choices, choices …
I can’t remember ever looking forward to a race as much as this one, the whole country should stop for it.
Its the big three Kauto, Exotic Dancer, Denman. People are seemingly forgetting ED a bit (though not one or two on here) but lets not forget this horse is outstanding in his own right and evidence suggests there’s not that much between he and Kauto on a left hand track. Lack of a run would be a concern especially as Jonjo is his trainer.
Kauto for me, Denman will gallop, then gallop and gallop some more but unless Kauto’s stamina runs out the living legend will do him for foot.
Can’t wait, bring it on!!
If ED gets there fit and well (by no means a foregone conclusion with Jonjo’s current form) he might be an each way bet to nothing.
For me it may well be a race to savour and not to bet in. Kauto undoubtedly has the best form but has yet to prove he stays a strongly run 3miles 2furlongs 110yards.
Denman has more improvement in him (needs to), but will the jockey be allowed to go all out to test his stable companion stamina? Alththough making a severe test will be Denmans best chance of winning it will also be Nicholls best chance of coming away without a win.Value Is EverythingI agree with what you are saying Ginge but don’t worry about Denman, this is not some flat race where they are sticking a pacemaker in to ensure there’s a good gallop.
Nothing will change the way Denman runs as he only has one way of running. Sam will hunt him let him do his own thing in the early part of the race. then steadily build up the pace until he’s in top gear. He’ll have a lot of them in trouble from a long way out and not many will be able to keep tabs on him. His style of running will test every horse in the race not just Kauto Star because that’s the way the horse is.
He certainly won’t go off at a suicidle pace and it would be crazy to ask him to do so.
Denman is what i call a" thinking" jumper, he can afford to screw one fence and get away with it because he is so big amd he has a lovely rythum between fences,Kauto’s jumping is a tiny bit suspect in comparision and under pressure could fold, as for exotic dancer —nowhere.
Jonjo will be delighted to hear that perhaps he shouldn’t bother. The horse is fine and all being well will run at Cheltenham. I wouldn’t be so sure it’s not going to be a repeat of last years 1-2 as Denman still has a lot to prove.
The Listner did give the form a bit of a boost yesterday I suppose, but there’s nothing in the form book that says he’s as good as Exotic Dancer never mind Kauto Star and we won’t know that until March.
I have been a Kauto Star fan since I saw him run for the first time last year, and he has got me out of trouble every time I have backed him. I have always had a disliking towards Denman for some reason, but I don’t feel he is the class of Kauto.
People still put Kauto down on the way he jumps but he seems a different horse going over an obstacle this year and hardly touched a twig at the best King George I have been to (Only been 5 times).
Ollie Magern was beaten 89L by Denman at the weekend, and that was after being taken off his feet and not being able to keep up, but people forget Kauto beat Ollie Magern by 86L in the betfair chase (although being pushed out to the line) and Ollie had a 15/20L headstart in that race.
I have only ever seen Kauto come second to a horse in the last 2 years and halfway through the race against Monet’s Garden he was in trouble, yet he only went down by 1 1/2L giving him a stone.
Also I never really thought about Exotic Dancer coming into the equation but if Jonjo finds a bit of form he could well do as Jonjo wasn’t firing when ED put in a below par performance in the King George.
Can never really see Kauto getting beat though in the Gold Cup, and it may be my heart ruling my head but I do think class will show through on the day. I just can’t wait for it though, my first ever day at Cheltenham with the best tickets I can buy to watch my favourite horse in what is billed to be one of the best races of the era, could be a mastercard advert!
Anyway, I suppose it will all boil down to the day and who comes out of their box in the morning feeling 100%.
My Bets are:
Kauto Star to win @ 5/4 (Couldn’t get my money on in time lol)
Knowhere E/W @ 66/1and I think the finishing positions will be:
1st Kauto Star
2nd Denman (1L)
3rd Knowhere (10L)
4th Exotic Dancer (1L)
5th Kicking King (1/2L)
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