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Early days to be discussing this as the argument will run till next April I’m sure.
However, while I’m in the popular camp that believes certain tracks suit the two horses differently, I do feel that the odds on Denman vs 7/1 against Kauto Star for the Gold Cup is an incorrect reflection of their chances.
They’re more closely matched than that IMO although I couldn’t have Kauto above Denman if I did have to rate them.
Lee
I think Kauto Star is a 7-10lb better horse going right handed. I think I’m right in thinking he hasn’t been beaten going this way since joining Nicholls. Going right handed however is a different kettle of fish. He got beat last season three out of four times going this way and the other was an unimpressive win against an overrated Exotic Dancer(IMHO). So with that in mind I couldn’t see him reversing the form with Denman in the Gold Cup next year. Denman has raced all left handed since his first two runs at Wincanton. What would be interesting would be if the two of them met at somewhere like Sandown but I guess thats never going to happen.
I think it’s a bit of a shame that along with these two Mr Nicholls has Neptune Collonges breathing down their necks and even Big Bucks one of the better novices last season as the likelihood of them meeting before the Gold Cup is small. As mentioned previously I think Exotic Dancer is overrated, Our Vic is not far off KS going right handed, Battlecry might improve a bit, the Irish at the moment are pretty average so I guess the excitement will have to wait until March 2009 although Denman in the Henessy again would be something to look forward to.
He was beaten that day at Exeter when he fell and was remounted to finish a fast-finishing close second, wasn’t he?
Colin
Any rating that they are given is almost immaterial I think if the only place they meet is the Gold Cup. Denman will run to a higher figure in that race 9 times out of 10, at Kempton you’d probably say the same about Kauto Star.
Looking at the horses they have beat and the way that they have beaten them, there’s clearly not much between them at all, but surely it’s far better to take a view rather than sit on the fence and rate them all the same.
The weaknesses of jump racing is it’s almost certain Denman and KS will only meet each other once this season (Gold Cup), if at all (perhaps KS will go for the Ryanair).
Compare this with the readiness of flat horses to take each other on on a regular basis.
Not exactly a sport if the protagonists avoid each other until
– they have their ideal conditions
– have no choice as they want to run at Cheltenham and there is not an alternative race equally as prestigous (although with the way Cheltenham is going, I’m sure in 4/5 years the top horses will be able to go through an entire season with facing their rivals at all
)Just to expand, if you were the owner of Denman, what would you rather win? The King George or the Lexus? Perhaps he would be beaten, perhaps not … why not run in less than optimum conditions?
Again, in comparison with the flat, look at Henrythenavigator running last Sunday .. every chance he may lose, far from optimum conditions but connections let him take his chance.
Agree Salselon. I thought tide had turned a bit under Nichols but the determination to keep them apart is not pleasing. In slight mitigation, it is clear that they both prefer differing conditions
The jumps season can sometimes seem like one long drawn out procession of rehersals followed by a great festival followed up alittle too hastily with two others
A sharp, right-handed track wouldn’t suit a horse like Denman – I expect that’s why they choose to take in the Lexus, rather than anything to do with avoiding stable-mates.
I think Aintree has the necessary quality to be enjoyed alongside Cheltenham, but I feel Punchestown is poor relative to the other 2 in that it winning seems to involve horses who lose their form last, and remains an afterthought for most horses these days.
He was beaten that day at Exeter when he fell and was remounted to finish a fast-finishing close second, wasn’t he?
Colin
He was beaten there in the Haldon Gold Cup as well.
I think Kempton rather than going right handed suits Kauto as he is such an athletic jumper. Its not coincedence that Denman runs almost exclusively on galloping tracks.
Sal – i must have imagined DoM pulling out of the race at the w.e. due to non-ideal conditions. But please lets not get into this again. Flat horse are much more limited with regard to distances they can run over – hence why you see all the 1m4 horses running against each other and the 5f "horses" running against each other.
If you had Masterminded would you run him against VPU in a 2m4??I think that Denman truly does stay the 3m2f trip and unlike previous RSA winners he DID win the Hennessy even under top weight destroying a top class field in the process.
Kauto will be at Haydock i hope in November to get his 3rd Betfair Lancashire Chase then King George,Ascot Chase,Gold Cup
Denman will do Hennessy,Lexus,AON,Gold Cup.
Neptune may well turn up at Wetherby although with Gungadu and Big Bucks to get races for it will be one hell of a problem.
I just hope that Paul Nicholls goes all out and tries to emulate Michael Dickinson and get the first 6 or 7 home in the Gold Cup, He wont have a better chance than this and it will be a huge feat if he can do it
I hope they go for the national with Denman…
Findlay is the kind of guy who would be willing to let his horse attempt an arklesque performance..
i think neptune collonges is a handy e/w bet if it runs in the gold cup with denman and kauto star. it wasnt that far behind kauto last time and its still young. i think the horse is going to have a good season.
Arkle never won the national did he?
For me we’ve seen the best of Kauto Star, he’s past his prime. Still good, still probably second best, but on the wane. Couldn’t have him behind KS and interested to see how Timeform justify that on the evidence of the Gold Cup.
i dont think the rating has just come from the gold cup as they have stated "The most sensible conclusion seems to be that Kauto Star simply had an off-day [at Cheltenham], of which his jumping was a symptom. He has form that is in advance of that shown by Denman," i do think they must be on about tingle creek form and the king george form as kauto’s best ratings have been off them races, obviously denman beat kauto in the gold cup but kautos ratings from both gold cups have been below his king george runnings.
It will take a monumental effort from Kauto to reverse Gold Cup form with Denman in next years renewal.
However, Denman will find it very difficult to equal what Kauto Star has achieved in his illustrious career.
Kauto Star is a horse in a lifetime and his record proves it. To win two Tingle Creeks, two Betfair Chases, two King George’s and a Gold Cup (and he’s not done yet) is an incredible feat of versatility.
Regardless of how many Gold Cups Denman may win, he’ll never compile a more impressive resume than Kauto.
The problem with Denman is that he has far too many limitations. His connections won’t allow him to compete in top class races on right-handed or sharp tracks, so that obviously rules out the King George, which is the premier event for three mile chasers. There’s also the glaring limitation regarding fast ground.
When The Tank has been retired and the dust settles on his glittering career, we”ll reflect on what a great horse he was, but when such a talented stayer fails to collect the King George, which has been won by the elite of the three mile division throughout history, it will leave a massive hole in his record.
The King George has been won by the best because it places emphasis on speed and stamina. If you don’t have the speed you don’t stand a chance.
If my name was attached to Denman, I’d want to win the King George. The horse doesn’t hang left, so a right-handed track shouldn’t bother him and how do we know he doesn’t possess the speed to win on a sharp track?
His connections are creating these limitations, not the horse.
That’s the difference between Denman and Kauto. Kauto has the class to overcome his limitations. He hangs left, no question, but that hasn’t prevented him from winning two Tingle Creek’s over two miles and two King George’s over three, both on right-handed tracks.
The best performance by a staying chaser last season was Kauto Star’s King George romp. A wonderful display that incredibly eclipsed his previous win in the race. Who will ever forget that final fence leap?
We can only presume that Kauto Star is on the decline based on his breeding. People who judge him on his last two efforts of 2008 are not being logical.
How can a horse, who put up his greatest ever performance to win in December, be past his best only three months later?!
Despite a hard race at Cheltenham, he was ready to confirm King George form with the Ryanair winner, Our Vic, at Aintree before a serious blunder knocked the stuffing out of him.
Sadly, we’ll never see Kauto meet Denman over three miles. Connections, especially Denman’s, won’t allow it. They should meet in the King George, but Findlay would rather win a five-runner Lexus Chase than challenge for the most prestigious three mile chase in National Hunt racing.
Kauto Star Vs Denman? Denman will never achieve what Kauto has. It will be a very long time before we see another Kauto Star.
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