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I’d do it myself but I’m a little tired – I worked last night (21.00-05.00) and went to Cheltenham without any sleep!
I think it would be great if someone (one of the mods, perhaps) could open a new thread with a poll for the Gold Cup – a closing argument thread if you like.
No, it is not.
Zafonic was flat. I remember the fat lump was very strong on it (I think he was fairly new to C4 at the time). He went overboard, just like Matt and himself in London the other day.
Flat is a different game, much more reliable… ie no fences, shorter distances
The sight of Big Mac kissing the feet of the owner was embarassing, but I guess he made a lot of money on it.
“Tell him he better know how to dance”
“He don’t dance,” Thomas managed to say as if to warn: My man has heavier things to do.
“He don’t what?” asked Kauto.
‘He don’t dance,’ said Thomas.
“Denman’s man,” cried Kauto, “says Denman can’t dance. Denman can’t come to the da-ance!”
“Five Minutes,” somebody yelled out, and Nicholls handed the horse a drink of water. Kauto took a swig of it, half a bucket worth, and stared with amusement at Thomas. “Tell him to hit me in the belly,” he said.
Wow, todays the day!! Sooooooooo excited really am. For me this is what horse racing is all about! I’m hoping and praying Kauto shines again today he’s such a fantastic horse and deserves to win. GOOD LUCK KAUTO STAR!! You can do it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go for it
Whilst I would like to see nothing more than Kauto win today I hope all the contenders have a clear run and get home safe. Good luck to everyone regardless of who you are backing/tipping…. even the Den-maniacs!
Kauto Star when he is 100% has never been taken of the bridle by any horse.
Rubbish Fist, he didn’t cruise home at Cheltenham last year – unless you’re saying he won the GC without being 100%.
Well the big day is upon us. I’ve actually backed Denman in a win double with Franchoek only because my figures allow it and its a small, speculative bet that won’t do any damage.
I’ve always been a Kauto man but the closer we get to this race the more I fear Denman suppose its just anticipation.
I’d love to see Kauto hammer Denman and show the world just what a machine racing has, on the other hand I wouldn’t mind them pulling twenty lengths clear and Denman winning.
Can’t wait now.
Do NOT forget Exotic Dancer though, at his best this horse in his own right is very, very good.
I’ve always been a Kauto Star man and I’m not about to change my mind. I’ll be honest, the ‘Denman factor’ was swaying me slightly, but I wasn’t converted.
I’ve stated enough times why I think KS will win (without forcing information to fit my hypothesis!!). I’ll take him to beat Exotic Dancer and Denman.
If Kauto Star wins it will complete a wonderful Cheltenham, personally. If Denman wins, I would have seen something special, which it what it will take to beat KS. If neither of them win, let’s all salute the unpredictability of National Hunt racing and find solace in the fact that we know nothing!!
It’s been fun…
Corm, have you been out drinking with gamble?
I’d personally would love to see a dead heat between the two – that would be fantastic.
what price a dead heat?
Jim, Hills are seriously going 66s about the dead heat! A complete joke bet obviously, but it helps do a bit more for the hype.
I’m a speed figure fan when it comes to betting, combined with the form i.e. when horses do a good speed figure, are they upheld by the runners in that race when they subsequently run.
So my points to note:
Last years Gold Cup was not fast run. kauto and exotic played cat and mouse and kept out of trouble. Unsurprisingly, ruby walsh made a decision to make room and press kauto’s button a bit before the last. he quickened and won well but put in one of his lower speed figures of 144.
He can do 170 speed figures over two miles and the way the race was run played into his hands.
Exotic Dancer got closer at haydock in a faster run race over 3 miles. the speed figure was massive – 176, but i understand that this could be an over-estimate because of a slight change to the course?? Nonetheless – a faster run race, and exotic got closer. Softish ground and back at Exotic’s beloved Cheltenham, given a fast run championship race, you must hope exotic will get close/closer/beat kauto at his best.
Now to Denman – all impressive wins.
Highest speed figure 157 at cheltenham beating Snowy Morning last year. Hennessey win (impressive first run under big weight), 153 speed figure beating Dream Alliance.
Goes on to win nicely in Ireland beating Mossbank and the Listener, in slow race (41 speed figure) and most recently has a spin round Newbury and posts a cosy 145.
All i can say, at the price, he has not posted top-drawer speed figures and the list of horses he has beaten are unimpressive. None have really gone on to do anything. This is enough for me to look elsewhere for value. If he wins like Masterminded did yesterday, so be it, great for racing and i’ll hail a champion, but simply no value.
I’m therefore hoping for a strongly run championship race today and will hope exotic’s interupted preparation will prove to be a bonus and that he’ll be at his prime today.
I must also mention, Halcon Genelardais. He posted a 172 speed figure when second to Miko in Welsh National. He didn’t run well in last years Gold Cup with blinkers on. If that is behind the bad run he may be worth considering today.
Look at the form of Welsh national as well – Miko went on to win off 9lb higher mark and they pulled clear of Over the Creek which ran a blinder yesterday coming second in the 4mile race. Halcon gave it nearly 2 stone that day!
Okay, today might not be stamina zapping enough. But what if it is hell for leather pace and the bit of rain has got into the already deadish ground? Could it be powering on up the hill better than anything else. Perhaps he will make the pace from halfway to ensure the stamina test?
I’m small stakes exotic and halcon ew and a reverse forecsat for fun.
Final thought is that over the years, how often have clashes of titans resulted in neither of them being placed!
Good luck to all the runners and go fast!
Excellent post, Batt.
Not sure that I agree with your conclusions but a very well composed argument.
Colin
Thanks Colin.
I feel quite strongly about the "value" argument. Be interested in your idea of the winner
Don’t get me wrong, i agree with the bookmakers that kauto star is the most likely winner of the race, but think the market is somewhat distorted by the Nicholls/Walsh/owners/Denman stuff.
The Gold Cup has had some reasonable and big priced winners in the past. Its just one race on a particular day in March every year and there are so many factors at play that will on the whole even things out for the runners on any particular day, essentially the concept of luck/chance both good and bad.
One of the strongest patterns to todays race is exotic dancer’s love of cheltenham – it is undisputable, and for a horse that has been so close to kauto star, 14/1 is just too big.
good luck today, i had a ‘mare yesterday
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