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Er – Afsoun didn’t run in the fighting fifth and never has…
Oops, thanks for correcting my mistake(dunno what made me put Fitghting Fifth)
Change it to Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock
Here Mikky, from Boylesports thread
Katchit win and place lay – looked a promising hurdler, but i think LTO showed he’s not quite up to this standard
Sublimity win lay – i could be wrong, but my thinking is CH fell into his lap and i’mm willing to pay to find out
Katchit is being over – rated because of his wide margin wins as a Novice, but they are 3/4/5 lengths short of what is required here, just like they were short of what was required at Newcastle
I’m not sure Afsoun can win, but i’m fairly confident Katchit can’t and fairly confident he can’t place either, if Afsoun, Macs Joy, Straw Bear , Sublimity run their races
He should have improved from Aintree to Newcastle, he didn’t and thats why he was beaten by battle hardened Al Eile and Harchibald, horses who are probably in the same league as Afsoun, Macs Joy, Straw Bear etc
Cheers for that Charlie.
Would you say that he improved from Newcastle to Cheltenham (Boylesports) or do you think that Afsoun and Straw Bear just under-performed?
Like I’ve said before, I’m not a ratings or time person, but to me Katchit’s Boylesports run visually looked solid. He finished well ahead of some decent CH contenders, in fact he finished 10L ahead of them – that’s some distance at this level. Yes, some of them in behind had excuses, but I don’t think they all did. I think Osana got a soft lead and I’m very confident Katchit can reverse form with him – whether that’s good enough to win or place in this years CH remains to be seen.
Mike
Cheers for that Charlie.
Would you say that he improved from Newcastle to Cheltenham (Boylesports) or do you think that Afsoun and Straw Bear just under-performed?
Mike
The latter imo
I have been looking at the runners and unless Nicky Henderson thinks his horse nned a true test of stamina I have no idea what will make the running.
Blythe Knight wont want a slow pace round here unless he settles much better than he did at Newcastle where his jumping was more up than forward . If Katchit goes off in front at a decent clip he might fall right into BK’s hands……The ground must be coming right for BK with no overnight rain forecast……all in all the race looks weird to me…….not a betting race for me with Katchit foreast odd on.
IMO The issue with Katchit is that it is rare for a horse to win one of Championship races without having shown anything at all that season. Sometimes outsiders spring a surprise but this is because they are ignored by the main contenders and the race is set up for them. Examples of this are Sublimity in the Champion Hurdle last year and Lough Derg at Ascot this year.
Katchit is too short for what he has done this season – you can only judge a horse on potential up to a point. Also it’s easy to say the horse wasn’t right after he runs poorly but I don’t remember Alan King saying he wasn’t happy with any of the runs because the horse wasn’t fit or whatever.
I’m not saying he won’t win the Champion Hurdle but I just think he has it all to prove and at this stage, he just looks like another Triumph winner who is struggling against the bigger and older horses.
Regarding tomorrow, the horse is on a hiding to nothing – if he doesn’t win impressively then he will be written off and if he does then he will have done no more than is to be expected IF he has genuine Champion Hurdle pretensions.
Regarding tomorrow, the horse is on a hiding to nothing – if he doesn’t win impressively then he will be written off and if he does then he will have done no more than is to be expected IF he has genuine Champion Hurdle pretensions.
That’s exactly what we think – at least with Straw Bear in we might have been able to prove or disprove credentials to some extent
Also agree with your comments regarding Alan King – he hasn’t offered any excuses other than he’s running well against bigger stronger horses.
I might be clutching at straws with comment about not feeling he’s been as fit as he was last year and I’ve often wondered whether the slight lack of fluency over hurdles compared to last year is a result of being put under pressure by the bigger horses where that really didn’t happen last year – who knows?
I continue to feel it harsh though that he’s so easily written off as not being able to cope with the bigger horses when he’s beaten Sublimity, Afsoun, Straw Bear, Blythe Knight. It seems OK for them to have excuses but we’re not open to improvement nor will anyone accept that previous races weren’t quite to his best
- Total Posts 170
This thread has really wet the appetite for tomorrow’s race. Looking forward to it – and I hope that Katchit wins well.
Are there odds available yet?
Post website has an early forecast 11/10 Katchit, 0/30 Amaretto Rose + Blythe Knight.
But as this forecast has Lemon Silk as the outsider of the field at 25/1, clearly it’s the work of deranged mind!
AP
At the races has it as :-
Forecast: 4/5 Katchit, 7/2 Amaretto Rose, 5/1 Blythe Knight, 12/1 Alph, Lemon Silk, 50/1 Osako D’airy
but will be happy if you’d give me some of that 100-1 Charlie
Thats my "to back" price at mo naps, i’m afraid and no offense here, but if your horse wins this race, i’m taking up sports betting
Tell you what if Katchit got turned over and the race wasn’t a true run race I wouldn’t be that bothered. This is a real weird race as I said earlier and the way Nicky Hendersons are running his could steal the show. That would worry me more than Blythe Knight winning it with his turn of foot of a slow pace, Hopefully Katchit can kick for home about 4 out and anhialate them………..he really should but damned if I can work out who’s going to do what tomorrow.
I will be laying Katchit today at odds on. The horse has only ever won juvenile races against his own age group and his reputation is still living off his success at bossing juveniles. Im not saying he cant win but I am saying I think he will be beaten today, fair and square.
I really don’t buy this argument that Katchit is relying on his reputation formed against the juveniles. Fine he hasn’t won yet against the big boys, but his level of form has looked similar, with perhaps a slight improvement confirmed by a lifetime best LTO in the Bula. The marks that he has posted on a regular basis, only Amaretto Rose & Blythe Knight in this field could ever dream of matching on what we’ve seen so far, and things don’t look completely right for either of those two today. On past form Katchit is justifiably the short side of even money IMO.
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