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Hi befair
I actually started compiling some data on juvenile longevity. How many seasons they last, which trainers get more years out of them, which source trainers are the most durable etc. Unfortunately, as it was a while ago, I have forgotten what all the charts and sheets are supposed to represent! That and I did not have a lot of store horse/older flat horse data to compare it to… Unless someone at the BHA (or Animal Aid if the price is right) wants to fund this endeavour, the research may have to wait until next summer!
I imagine the answer to your question may be similar to all horses who compete in the sport. Panorama did a show about it recently and the racing community responded unanimously that action needed to be taken… That said, juvenile hurdlers may well be in the fortuitous position of having time on their side and an established flat career to fall back on. Les Arcs is a notable example who won the Golden Jubilee and July Cup two years after finishing tailed off in a Cartmel juvenile.
Anyways, better late than never, the review of Friday’s race at Down Royal. The preview for tomorrow’s contest at Worcester should hopefully be done before bedtime…
Preview review
No preview was written on this contest due to the fact that with temporary accommodation comes temporary sleep. The spreadsheets had been made and the introduction partially written, but further progress was curtailed by absolute fatigue. As such, I can only look at this race in hindsight while applying what may have been my processes going into a more lucid preview. While Albert Camus was an interesting newcomer with a decent pedigree, those coming from John Gosden rarely match their flat exploits in juvenile hurdles. As experience is useful at Down Royal, Whyzzat would likely have been given the strong prospects, although his massive drift in the market would have been a concern. The winner would not have been readily dismissed although the trainer hitherto being without a winner in the sphere would have been a drawback, although her sample size was small and both her prize money per race and improvement figures were respectable. The runner-up, who represented a trainer without a winner in the sphere, and a sire with a very modest record, was the subject of a heavy gamble. There probably would have been plenty to assess had the preview been written, but without same, much would be speculative at this point.Race review
Northern Ireland, or the North of Ireland, hosted its first juvenile hurdle of the season at Down Royal last Friday. One of three held at the venue each term, Friday’s corresponding contest tends not to be as strong as the one held during the Champion Chase meeting; which has been taken in the past decade by Triumph placed Guitar Pete, Coeur Sublime, Mega Fortune, and last season’s winner Quilixios. Indeed, nothing coming out of previous renewals have subsequently landed any major juvenile prizes, although Tocororo, second in 2015, and Tudor City, unplaced the same year, did go on to become useful sorts. Friday’s contest looked a fairly standard affair overall with the hurdling form being little better than average and the newcomers having patchy profiles. That the previous winner and the highly rated newcomer were both heavy drifters in the market detracted from the race’s apparent strength in depth and the field being in a bunch turning for home further denigrates the form. Despite all fifteen runners completing the course, the quality of jumping was fair at best. The winner travelled nicely and won comfortably, but the stability of the form in behind is far from assured.Realist was formerly trained by Michael Bell, whose former inmates had a healthy winner to runner rate of 29.87% going into this contest. He won one of his eight starts on the flat, a Chelmsford handicap off 65 back in April, and his official rating of 74 was the third highest brought into the race. Shaping like a stayer on the flat, this nephew of Oaks runner-up Flight Of Fancy, herself the dam of two winning hurdlers, gave sire Camelot his first winner of the season, and his trainer her first winner in the sphere on her twenty-sixth attempt. Opening at 8/1, Realist drifted out to 14/1 at the off and while he was calm in the preliminaries, he was one of several who got quite warm at the start. Setting off just behind the leaders, Realist had only a few behind him going along the back – although with Bryan Cooper showing little urgency, this was likely more by design than Realist’s racing lazily. Though he still only had one behind jumping three out, Realist needed only to be shoved along to make smooth headway and was within half-a-dozen lengths of the lead at the penultimate flight. He was rather steep going over the last, but he appeared to get more momentum from picking himself up than any impetus commanded by his rider and he crossed the line two very comfortable lengths ahead of the pack. The steep jump at the last was not the only error made during this round of jumping as he was slightly skewed at the first, went marginally to his right at the second, was slow when clipping the fourth, got in tight at the sixth and made his only serious error at three out where he did not get too high and stumbled for a stride on landing. Nevertheless, it would be harsh to decry his hurdling too much, particularly as he was still clever when atoning for his errors. With several of his rivals seemingly underperforming, and the winning time being no better than fair, this performance would not be worth a great deal at face value. Notwithstanding, Realist probably matched his flat mark and with plenty of scope for further improvement, he could be a reasonable recruit to the sphere. 109
Bell Ex One had already faced the starter on sixteen occasions prior to his hurdling debut, but this dual winner had been running consistently since the spring and ran to a new career best last time when landing a fourteen furlong handicap at Galway at the start of the month. Trainer Ray Cody has yet to have a winning juvenile from four and sire Excelebration had a lamentable record of one win from fifty-three starts in the sphere. There were positives on the damline as uncle Loch Long finished third in Punchestown’s Champion 4YO Hurdle, the third dam produced Long Walk third Top Spin, and the fourth dam had the good handicap hurdler Roark. Furthermore, Ray Cody earmarked a hurdling career for Bell Ex One after his Galway win and his enthusiasm was reflected in the market as he was back into 13/8 favouritism having been available at 8/1 during the day. Despite having a good size about him, Bell Ex One made several mistakes during his journey as he was close and untidy at the first and fourth, slow when ridden into the fifth and was very steady when close at the next. He was slow again at three out and his trailing his hind legs through the last cost him further momentum. Bell Ex One did travel nicely enough in midfield, although he did not quite have the pace to make any serious inroads prior to the race’s conclusion. This was not a bad introduction however, and he should be up to winning a race of this nature given a more demanding test of stamina. 104
Television finished nearer last than first on her three flat outings since her debut in late May, but her rating of 60 did not make her a forlorn prospect for hurdling and she was able to surpass that standard on her third try over hurdles. While she attracted some support through the day, this had been completely negated in the ring as she drifted from 10/1 to double that price at the off. Held up in touch, as she had been on her previous outing at Ballinrobe, Television was close and untidy at the first, and skewed over the second, but jumped without mishap from there. She did not settle particularly well during the contest, but still had Mike O’Connor hard at work from three out. Television was able to gain four places on the run-in, and put up her best performance to date in the process. While she would have to find a weak contest to get off the mark, she can remain competitive in this sphere. Furthermore, although her pedigree suggests otherwise, she shapes as though a sterner test would suit. 96
Albert Camus, after fetching 115,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale, finished his spell at John Gosden’s with a rating of 89. This mark, fully deserved during a campaign which saw him win three times in handicaps from ten to twelve furlongs, was much the highest in this line-up and puts him the 97th percentile of all flat recruits in the division. There was also plenty to like about his profile coming into the contest as his new handler had a 27.27% winner to runner rate in the sphere, sire Teofilo had a rate of 34.15% and his cousins include the talented Lord Jim and the winning juvenile Sebastian Beach. Juveniles formerly trained by John Gosden who maintain their flat form over hurdles are in a minority, but this would not justify Albert Camus drifting out to 15/2 having been 2/1 in the morning. Racing fairly keenly in midfield on the outer, he was somewhat novicey over the first few flights and got in tight when slow to get away from the sixth. Still travelling well within himself, he made an almighty blunder at three out where he barely got off the ground, forcing Simon Torrens to sit extremely tight in order to maintain the partnership. Though slightly ponderous at the penultimate flight, he was able to touch down in a marginal lead which he just about maintained after another unassured jump at the last. However, that would spell the end of his race and he was passed by three rivals before reaching the finish line. Albert Camus ran a good couple of stones below his flat best and while he has the credentials to leave this form well behind, this season’s better races look beyond his compass at this juncture. 103
Gamigin ran with credit in his first two outings on the flat at Leopardstown and Naas back in April. However, he failed to build on that promise and while he was able to get off the mark on his final start in that sphere, that win came in a modest ten furlong Sligo claimer after which he was bought for €10,000. New trainer James McAuley has had a winner in the sphere from four, and while Dark Angel is no better than fair overall, Gamigin is a nephew of two winning hurdlers and the cousin of another. Unfancied in the market, Gamigin was never far away from the front and took a share of the lead at the distance. However, that would be the extent of his effort and he faded to finish just over five lengths behind in fifth. His cause was not helped by his wandering into the last three hurdles, particularly not at two out where he barely took off. His earlier jumping was not much better either and this would be an area where he would have to improve. Gamigin was not disgraced on his hurdling debut, but given his poor hurdling and inconsistency on the flat, it remains to be seen if he can build on this effort. 100
Virtual Hug was twice placed on the flat, although he never ran beyond a mile in that sphere and had a tendency to pull in his races. Withdrawn from his intended hurdling debut at Ballinrobe due to the ground being on the soft side of good, he was largely unconsidered in the market here. Running in a first time tongue tie, he went straight into the lead where he raced freely, but jumped adequately for much of the contest. His first error came at three out where he was steady and stumbled on landing. From here, he found himself challenged for the lead and while he would still be pitching at the last, his untidy jumping told that he was running on empty and he would fade to an eight length sixth by the line. This was not a bad introduction, but his stamina is rather suspect at this juncture and while this can improve with maturity, he may require sharper tests to be seen to good effect in the near future. 98
Whyzzat won Roscommon’s seasonal curtain raiser at the start of the month and although it was not tremendous form, it was solid enough to give him a live chance here. However, his trainer has been going through a lean patch and there was little confidence in the market as he drifted from 9/2 in the morning to 11/1 at the off. He had jumped well on his hurdling debut and there was no cause for complaint in his round here either as he took each flight without mishap. Nor was there anything wrong with the way he travelled as he settled well just behind the leaders and was always close enough if good enough. While improvement between first and second outings would generally be a given, it would be an exaggeration to describe this as a flop as he was only a few pounds below his Roscommon performance. Trainer form might be the most plausible explanation although it could also be that he was feeling the effects of this being his thirteenth race of the year. 103
Lunar Power, representing a Noel Meade yard coming off a fine season in the division, was his trainer’s highest rated recruit of the new campaign to the tune of over a stone. His mark of 72 was the result of win at Dundalk in April followed by a succession of second placings in handicaps at Leopardstown and Galway over distances between thirteen and fifteen furlongs. Sire Power had a strong winner to runner rate in the sphere of 33.33%, and a remarkable improvement rate of 85.71%. Half-brother Mariners Moon was only a modest winning chaser, but he is a cousin of useful winner Red Force One along with Zoffany who is a good sire in the division. Such a profile saw Lunar Power backed into second favouritism, but his performance can only be regarded as disappointing. Held up in the rear, he was slow when hopping over the first and very steady at the second. Although his hurdling tidied up over the next few, his progress through the field was leisurely and his being big and skewed over three out only added to his task. Plugging on in the closing stages to get within nine lengths of the winner, Lunar Power shaved very much like he would be suited by a more demanding test of stamina. However, since his decent flat form came on good ground, it is yet to be established whether he can get by on soft ground, or will need distances unavailable to him prior to the new year. 97
Alice Kitty was well fancied ahead of her hurdling debut at Roscommon where she was making her first appearance since being claimed out of Jessica Harrington’s yard for €5,000. However, she took a real clattering when falling at the first and would make it no further at the second time of asking when (softly) unseating at Killarney. These experiences saw her sent off at 22/1 here and racing in the rear, she was steady at the first. Slow jumping would repeat itself on numerous occasions and while she passed a few beaten horses in the straight, she never threatened to make an impression. Unless she is able to gain confidence over hurdles, Alice Kitty may be better served by a return to the flat. 84
Grey Angel was another representative of Noel Meade, but had little flat form as a two-year-old and jumped poorly on her first appearance of 2021 at Roscommon where she was well beaten. Starting at 150/1, she raced towards the rear of midfield. While she was big and slightly skewed at the first and wandered into the fourth, her jumping was better this time around. She was also baulked at the second and fifth before making minor headway in the closing stages. This was an improvement on her debut outing, but the performance merely matches her modest two-year-old form and she still has plenty to find going forward. 83
Supposedtobe failed to win on the flat, but went into his hurdling debut at Killarney with decent credentials and was not disgraced in finishing third to Feigh. Though he drifted through the day’s exchanges, he was subject to some support in the ring being clipped from 10/1 to 7/1. Settled well enough in mid division, he was steady and tight over the first and got close to the second, but otherwise hurdled reasonably well. He was still in the leading bunch turning for home but completely downed tools under pressure and weakened to a seventeen length eleventh crossing the line. Supposedtobe has the ability to be competitive in the sphere, but his attitude thus far has been far from encouraging. 88
Erikson is a cousin of capable hurdlers Wajaaha and Taaresh, but he fetched only 3,500 guineas at the Gainsborough dispersal at the Tattersalls February sale and showed next to nothing on his sole flat outing earlier in the month. Sent off at 125/1, he was held up towards the rear and jumped slowly throughout before finishing tired. 73
Burren Shore was making his racecourse debut here and while trainer Stuart Crawford has yet to have a winner in the sphere, his charge was not completely unfancied at 20/1. Sire Moohaajim’s sole previous juvenile hurdler was the winning Recent Revelations, granddam Dochas won a maiden hurdle as a four-year-old before producing the fair Crystal Earth, while 2002 Triumph winner Scolardy appears at 5/3 on the damline. However, none of these genetic credentials would make an appearance here. Sent off into a prominent position, Burren Shore raced freely, wandered and stumbled at the first, was untidy over the second and fourth, got in close to the next two and his jumping completely fell apart over the last couple of flights. His position had been lost with half a mile left to run and he was ultimately beaten thirty-seven lengths. Burren Shore may develop with time, but there is no immediate promise on this evidence. 69
War Thunder began his career with Richard Hannon and if his Sligo third back in May is to be believed, he would not be a forlorn hope in the sphere. However, there is little pointing towards hurdling success in his pedigree and after losing his rider at the first at Killarney, he made another mistake at the next without a rider. Initially held up in midfield here, he managed to get baulked over the first three while also jumping big by his own volition. Dropping to the rear, his hurdling did not gain fluency for a clearer path and he was labouring a long way out before beating just one rival home. 64
Guest was tailed off on his sole start as a two-year-old, and since left Ken Condon to join a yard that has yet to have a winner in the sphere from two. Unfancied on his hurdling debut at Roscommon, he was detached after getting badly hampered at the first and pulled up before halfway. Sent off the rank outsider here, he raced prominently and though he was fresh, there was little wrong with his hurdling. However, he was losing his position four furlongs from home and after getting hampered at three out, came home in his own time. Guest is probably better than this, but he has not shown enough to be competitive any time soon. 45
The preview for tomorrow’s contest now with bonus tl;dr supplement! If that isn’t worth a like/re-tweet/whatever then I don’t know what is!
https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/status/1432738916323450884
Thank you :)
Having missed out last term due to the happenings, Lake Worcester is set to host its sole juvenile hurdle of the season tomorrow. Though the race is generally contested by ordinary sorts, Cliffs Of Dover and Chief Justice, winners in 2016 and 2018 respectively, went on to make an impact in graded company. This year’s renewal is essentially a maiden contest although the field is headed by a pair who had shown respectable form on their sole outings. A flat, left handed circuit with a long home straight, winning DIs at Worcester are quite inconsistent due to a relatively low sample size. Nevertheless, given the pace that often prevails at the venue, there would appear to be an inclination towards stamina. Furthermore, with the clear round rate of 94.12% being the third lowest in Britain, Worcester can catch out inexperienced sorts. The going is currently described as good and with no rain forecast between now and racing, the ground is being watered to maintain.
Boulette bg Nigel Hawke f6-0-1 (71) 72
Epaulette (Tiznow){5-f}(1.00) 0.5 Pari Passu 10th 2m Maiden Hurdle, Kilbeggan 2019
Nigel Hawke’s record in the sphere is a solid one overall with his winner runner rate of 19.30% essentially matching the standard. However, when sourcing his juveniles from Jim Bolger, that record increases to five winners from eight including all three scoring last term – spearheaded by the useful Historic Heart. Boulette is set to be the first such juvenile making said switch to appear this term and his flat form is the strongest available in this line-up. Last of six on his sole outing last year, Boulette failed to win in five starts this season, although he has ran consistently and the company he kept justifies a mark that exceeds his BHA rating of 71. He sees his races out well and should have no difficulty getting the trip, although he has been difficult to settle in his latest outings which is never a positive in this sphere. Epaulette has already had a winner and a placed horse in the division this season, but that is the extent of promise in the pedigree as half-brother Pari Passu, his only relative to try hurdling, achieved nothing over jumps. Boulette is still an interesting recruit to the game given his connections and overall flat form, although as his trainer has a first time rate of just 3.57%, and he will want to settle better than he has done recently, he may well come on for the experience.Business Flight bg Gary Brown f9-0-1 (48) 66
Fed Biz (Birdstone){9-f}(2.08) 4/3 Up Jumps A Monster 1st Ky Alta Handicap, Northlands Park 2012
Starting his career with Robert Cowell, whose former inmates have won none of their eleven races in the sphere, Business Flight put up his best performance when third off 62 in a seven furlong handicap at Newcastle in March. Since then, he finished well beaten at Kempton and Chelmsford, with his form taking a nosedive after changing hands for 9,000 guineas at Tattersalls. Gary Brown has had a couple of winners in the division, but none for nine years and his improvement rate stands at just 20%. The American bred Business Flight has nothing in his pedigree to suggest he might take to jumping and although he has a 4/3 relative called Up Jumps A Monster, that horse never actually raced over hurdles.Corporal Jones bc Donald McCain j1-0-1 (-) 87 91
War Command (Montjeu){3-h}(0.85) 1/0 Bessie Lou 1st 2m1f Mares Maiden Hurdle, Bellewstown 2011
Costing £23,000 purchase at last year’s Tattersalls Ireland Breeze Up, Corporal Jones went to Market Rasen at the start of August without any previous racecourse experience. His profile was not without substance however as War Command has a couple of winners in the sphere, dam Bessie Lou was a winning hurdler, half-brother Cheeky Rascal won a juvenile hurdle and useful sorts Four Sox (3/1), Joke Dancer (3/1), Singapore Belle (4/1) and Asterion Forlonge (5/4) also appear on the damline. His trainer had already sent Sacre Pierre to make a winning racecourse debut and while not a plunge exactly , Corporal Jones was backed from a morning 7/2 to a steady in-ring 11/4. Understandably for a debutant, Corporal Jones showed signs of greenness, although it was more conspicuous than alarming. He raced keenly while tracking the leaders in the early stages, but had managed to settle better along the back stretch. His jumping was novicey and he made errors of one minor fashion or another at most flights. He was able to follow the winner when he made his move at the distance, but did not have enough to make any real inroads until the final fifty yards where the race was already put to bed. All told, it was a respectable debut effort and though the performance merely places him in the top third of juveniles seen thus far, the expected improvement would make him a threat in ordinary company for his in-form trainer.Gavin bg Joe Ponting f6-0-1 (50) 56 j1-0-0 (-) 39 33
Bated Breath (Montjeu){16-c}(0.71) 2/1 Keys 2nd 2m1f Maiden Hurdle, Aintree 2011
Prior to his hurdles bow at Stratford last week, Gavin had shown only moderate form on the flat for Rod Millman, although the damline does feature numerous winning jumpers. Completely unfancied in the market, starting at 125/1, he was initially held up in the rear. However, after getting baulked on landing at the second, he became lit up and pulled himself into a clear lead. He stumbled on the path approaching the third, but was able to recover in time to get over the flight safely enough and his jumping was reasonable from there. However, his exertions had taken their toll by the penultimate flight and he weakened rapidly before being the last to finish. There were some positives to be drawn from his speed and generally safe and sage jumping, although he could not be approached with optimism going forward on the basis of that performance or his overall profile.Keepyourdreamsbig bg Olly Murphy j1-0-1 (-) 86 97
Vision d’Etat (Enrique){4-r}(0.78) 1/0 Take This Waltz 1st Prix D’Essai Des Pouliches, Enghien 2011
Very similar to Corporal Jones, Keepyourdreamsbig made his first racecourse appearance in a juvenile hurdle this term, is out of a winning jumper, and ran a promising second on his introduction. A representative of Vision d’Etat’s final crop, a sire with a very good record in the sphere, he is also a nephew of Prix Aguado fifth Great Shudder along with three other winners. Passing the Tattersalls Ireland ring for €25,000 as a yearling, Keepyourdreamsbig was the first unraced newcomer to represent Olly Murphy – a trainer with a fair 16.67% winner to runner rate in the sphere. Despite taking on two previous winners, he was not without support at Uttoxeter five weeks ago, starting at 6/1 having opened at 10/1. Held up in touch, he made his move on the turn for home and appeared to be travelling the strongest at the distance – trading at 1.2 in-running. However, while he loomed alongside Burristo, it took him most of the run-in to finally get his measure by which time subsequent Cartmel winner Sacre Pierre had already flown. Though his jumping was safe, it did lack the winner’s neatness as he was prone to giving his flights more air than necessary. Nevertheless, this is an issue which ought to resolve itself with experience and having shown enough tenacity to win the battle for second, a race of this nature should be well within his scope. However, while his form was already the strongest before receiving its recent boost, Olly Murphy’s charges were in good nick at the time. With the yard currently going through a lean spell, his prospects are a little less clear cut.Nazwa bg Oliver Sherwood f1-0-0 (-) 60 j1-0-0 (-) 71 68
Sepoy (Authorized){9-e}(0.63) 2/1 Nisaal 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (80), Sedgefield 2012
Oliver Sherwood is not renowned for his juvenile hurdlers, although he is perfectly capable of training them as his 39.39% winner to runner rate attests. Nazwa, who shaped with promise on his sole flat outing for David Simcock back in February, was easy to back ahead of his hurdles bow at Stratford in late July. He raced mostly in the rear and made only minor headway on the approach to the home turn. Several novicey errors were posted during his round and while he is entitled to come on for the experience, more will be needed in the short term.Vunipola bg Emma Lavelle f2-0-0 (-) 68
Vadamos (Marju){1-n}(0.50) 2/1 Vorashann 1st 2m1½f Handicap Hurdle (116), Fontwell 2020
Another trainer more noted for her exploits outside of the division, Emma Lavelle has gotten her fair share of winners and she enjoyed particular success in the 2000s with Bouggler and Crack Away Jack. However, juvenile hurdling has taken a backseat at Bonita Racing Stables and the last time one of hers found the winner’s enclosure was in April 2017. Her first runner this term is set to be Vunipola who ran twice for Brian Meehan at the backend of last year. Having already had a wind operation prior to his debut, Vunipola ran with credit in finishing just over three lengths fifth at Kempton over a mile, but would not build on that effort at Lingfield on New Year’s Eve and been absent ever since. Former inmates of Brian Meehan’s win their fair share in the sphere, and there is some encouragement in the pedigree. Sire Vadamos is already off the mark with his first crop and while classy flat stayer Vazirabad is the most famous relative, winning hurdlers Vorashann (2/1) and Visibility (3/1) are also close on the damline. Vunipola’s overall profile makes him a fairly interesting recruit, although it is not the most substantial and he has quite a bit to prove in this company after an eight month break.Dark Motive bf Jamie Snowden f6-0-1 (58) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 72 69
Motivator (Zamindar){16-c}(1.07) 3/1 Prospect Wells 1st National Spirit Hurdle (G2), Fontwell 2013
Following a six race flat career without a win, Dark Motive made the switch to a jumps yard without changing ownership, despite a falling handicap mark. Previously with Ralph Beckett, former residents of Kimpton Down Stables have a respectable winners to runners rate of 28%, although neither of the pair who ended up with Jamie Snowden managed to win as juveniles. A daughter of Motivator, whose juveniles count twelve winners from thirty-six, her third dam produced three useful sorts in Prospect Wells, Brooklyn’s Gold and Old Way. However, the trainer’s record in the sphere is less compelling as only three of his twenty juveniles have been winners, with none of them scoring prior to January. Steady in the market ahead of her jumps bow at Stratford, she raced in midfield, made numerous errors during the contest and did not have the pace to get involved. Ultimately beaten twenty-seven lengths, if Dark Motive is to become competitive in the sphere, it is more likely to be further down the road than any time soon.Free Degrees rof Sarah-Jayne Davies f3-0-0 (37) 39 j2-0-0 (-) 61 67
Free Eagle (Verglas){5-g}(0.65) 4/1 Englishtown 1st 2m5½f Handicap Hurdle (120), Southwell 2009
Showing little on the flat during three outings prior to this February, Free Degrees has fared no better during two attempts over hurdles. Racing keenly and prominently at both Uttoxeter and Stratford, she made errors and faded some way out on each occasion.Sentilly bf Alexandra Dunn f2-0-0 (-) 6 j2-0-0 (-) 49 46
Air Chief Marshal (Elusive City){16-g}(1.40) 1/1 Saint Contest 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2016
Twice beaten by over thirty lengths on the flat during the winter, Sentilly’s hurdles campaign has started no better. Her jumping was novicey at both Newton Abbot and Stratford and while she improved between outings, she still finished tired last time when beaten by fifty-one lengths.TL;DR
Boulette – Horses who join Nigel Hawke from Jim Bolger’s have a strong record, and his flat form is the strongest in the contest. However, patchy pedigree, an inability to settle and trainer’s first-time strike rate are not encouraging.
Business Flight – Regressive on flat and American pedigree offers no respite.
Corporal Jones – Green on racecourse debut at Market Rasen but put up respectable performance in the context of this race. About half-a-stone to find with Keepyourdreamsbig but yard is in better form.
Gavin – Moderate on flat but not unfeasibly bred for the sphere. While he jumped smartly on his hurdles debut, he was ultimately well beaten and has lots to find on form.
Keepyourdreamsbig – Out of a good juvenile hurdler in France and made promising racecourse debut at Uttoxeter behind Sacre Pierre. That form has since been boosted but the yard could be in better form.
Nazwa – Lightly raced having had just one start under either code. Shown promise on each outing but still a bit to find with the leading contenders.
Vunipola – Promise on debut at Kempton last November and pedigree is not without merit. Joins a yard capable of performing in the division but has not won in the sphere for over four years.
Dark Motive – Regressive on flat and trainer yet to train a winning juvenile before January. Made numerous errors when well beaten on hurdles debut.
Free Degrees – No worthwhile form on flat or hurdles.
Sentilly – Even less in the way of worthwhile form.Strong prospects
1. Corporal Jones
Reasonable prospects
2. Keepyourdreamsbig
Feasible prospects
3. Boulette
4. Nazwa
5. Vunipola
Moderate prospects
6. Dark Motive
Negligible prospects
7. Gavin
8. Free Degrees
9. Business Flight
10. SentillySensational stuff as always.
My take on it is that the two runners up on debut have obvious prospects – I slightly prefer Keepsyourdreamsbig actually as I think his race was run at a slightly stronger pace for the ground conditions and the winner went in again at Cartmel – but at the odds the one that interests me each-way is Boulette, who has opened at 6/1 overnight.
He stayed 1m5f in Ireland, I think he’s a moral certainty tomorrow to get the trip – plenty don’t in these races – and he’s going to have to hate every second of his new career and clout every brush flight not to finish in the first three.
That’s him booked for a tired fourth, then!
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Keepyourdreamsbig did indeed run with a stronger pace and he also jumped better than his market rival which is handy around Worcester. All things being equal, I would have leaned in his favour. However, the differences in form between the yards is such that the balance was tipped the other way. If Olly Murphy’s end up running blinders at Uttoxeter this afternoon then the Worcester race takes a different complexion. But I don’t bet on these races in any case so it’s neither here nor there really…
Everything about Boulette suggests that he is more than capable of running into a place, but the yard’s first time out record with juveniles is a concern. Having only two winners from fifty-six is weak enough… (incidentally, his strike rate per outing is 3.57%, 6.98%, 17.86%, 22.22%). But of those fifty-six, six either fell or unseated first time. From the thirty-eight trainers with fifty or more first-time hurdlers to their names, Nigel Hawke ranks thirty-fifth.
Now watch him jump like a champion hurdler and absolutely dot up…
“I slightly prefer Keepsyourdreamsbig actually as I think his race was run at a slightly stronger pace for the ground conditions and the winner went in again at Cartmel – but at the odds the one that interests me each-way is Boulette”
Game winning performance by Keepsyourdreamsbig, but am I talking through my pocket by suggesting my each-way bet Boulette was given a bit too much to do?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Only watched the race on my phone but Boulette seemed close enough if good enough and given that he was bound to come on for the outing, he probably ran as well as could be expected. Particularly as he was a bit weak in the market before the off.
Will know for sure after getting the replay though. Nice shouts either way!
I look forward to reading your full analysis in due course.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Cheers for that Sam and thank you for reading.
Hi Ian. Actually got some sleep last night so here you go. Thought Boulette did have too much to do, although this was more his own doing than any tactical misjudgement…
Preview review
Corporal Jones was initially given the strong prospects. However, the split between himself and Keepyourdreamsbig was due to the relative form of their trainers and those who were able to catch my updates will have seen that Olly Murphy’s earlier winner probably tipped the balance in the favour of the latter. While it initially appeared that the noted greenness of Corporal Jones manifested during the closing stages, allowing Boulette to take second, it emerged that he returned lame on his near-fore which would explain his leaning during the closing stages. Boulette was the next best prospect due to the Bolger/Hawke connection and if one takes Vunipola out of the equation, the rest of the field finished according to the prospects list. Taking this race in isolation, I can only be pleased that the processes that went into the preview worked out rather well. Nevertheless, this does not change the immutable fact that I am not a tipster…Race review
Though this was effectively a maiden contest, decent potential was brought into the race by the two experienced market leaders while a couple of newcomers brought flat form sufficient to win a race of this nature. The field travelled well enough for the most part and while the quality of jumping was not exceptional, it was respectable for the kind of contest. Unusually for Worcester, the pace was quite sedate. The winning time was quicker than that of the novice hurdle on the card, although that race began at a crawl and its sectionals were marginally faster throughout. The field was still bunched up entering the straight, but they were spread out well enough by the line and the positions were filled by those entitled to be there. However, while the form looks acceptable for what it is, that the runner-up will have been suited by a stronger pace and looks sure to improve, and the third finished the race lame, it can not be said with confidence that these placings would be replicated in a rerun a few months down the line. Notwithstanding, juvenile hurdlers who come out of contests at Worcester go on to have a strike rate of 16.47% during the remainder of the season which places the course behind only Aintree and Ascot, and just ahead of Cheltenham. The winners’ subsequent strike rate of 42.31% is the highest in Britain and Ireland. It is prudent to account for a comparatively small sample size that is skewed heavily by prolific winners Cliffs Of Dover and Chief Justice. Nevertheless, excluding that pair, the subsequent strike rate of 12.18% is still above average so it would be no surprise to see this race throw up a few winners over the coming months.Keepyourdreamsbig, bred very much to be a juvenile hurdler, came into this contest on the back of a promising second to recent Cartmel winner Sacre Pierre at Uttoxeter. That performance already set the clear form standard prior to Sacre Pierre’s subsequent success. Trainer Olly Murphy had been going through a lean spell in the interim, but with the yard scoring at Uttoxeter earlier in the day, there was more confidence in his charge here who displaced Corporal Jones at the top of the market. Taking the lead early, albeit at a sedate tempo, he jumped more neatly than on his debut with the only criticisms being that he was somewhat big and skewed over the third and slightly tight at the fourth, two out and the last where he was bumped on the approach. Injecting more pace turning for home, he was challenged up the straight by Corporal Jones until his rival went slightly lame; and after leaving him behind on the run-in, had built up enough of a lead to fend off the fast finishing Boulette by half a length. With more assured hurdling than first time, this marks an improvement of roughly half a dozen pounds and there should be further to come with experience. While still some way off pattern class and far from guaranteed to confirm placings with his two rivals in the future, there is enough about Keepyourdreamsbig’s attitude, ability and aptitude to suggest that he is is capable of defying a penalty. 103
Boulette is the latest in a series of juvenile hurdlers to have joined Nigel Hawke from Jim Bolger; a group which has produced five winners from eight prior to this contest. A six race maiden in Ireland, his performances exceeded his official mark of 71 and he shaped as though stamina would be no concern in this sphere. His new trainer’s first time out strike rate is modest and with his yard’s charges generally improving with experience, Boulette was slightly uneasy in the market. Sweating up beforehand, Boulette had a habit of pulling on the flat and he raced keenly off the modest pace here. Initially in midfield, he jumped the path crossing the stands, but was soon tracking the pacesetters and was within a couple of lengths of the lead jumping three out. He hurdled well enough save for skewing at the first and slightly reaching at the fourth, although the shift in gears rather caught him off guard as he got close to three out, and while he jumped the last two fine, he was not so quick in getting away from his hurdles. This cost him valuable momentum which exacerbated his lack of pace. He was about six lengths behind at the furlong marker and though able to rally after reorganising himself, he gave himself too much to do and was unable to bridge the gap in time. Given that he shaped like a horse who should come on plenty for the experience, Boulette probably emerges as the one to take out of this race and if he finds suitable conditions, he would be of interest over his next few outings. 102
Corporal Jones, like the winner, came here on the back of a sole outing which saw him finish a promising second in a juvenile hurdle. Initially installed as clear favourite, he drifted out to 9/4 in the ring before being clipped back into 15/8 at the off. Conspicuously green at Market Rasen first time, he also made numerous errors on his debut. However, while he was still a bit fresh in the early stages, he had settled before too long and despite getting checked on landing at the first, put in a tidy round of jumping. Tucked in just behind the lead throughout, he was the only one to match the winner’s turn of foot entering the straight and jumped the penultimate flight with a marginal lead. However, he stumbled on landing which is where he probably picked up his reported lameness on his near-fore. Drifting to his left on the approach to the last, he bumped into his rival and was skewed going over the flight. While he bravely renewed his challenge on the run-in, his being steered to a straight line ended his momentum and he finished the race a couple of lengths behind the winner. Had Corporal Jones not stumbled on landing at two out, where he was trading at 1.27, it is quite likely he would have won the race. He is certainly capable of winning a race of this nature if this experience does not leave a mark. It is hoped that the injury is none too serious and he is able to make a full recovery before too long. 101
Nazwa, whose previous experience counted one run under either code, had shown some promise without troubling the leaders when finishing fifth on each of his outings. He raced in the rear when last seen at Stratford and did the same here. Nevertheless, apart from getting close to the sixth, his hurdling was much better on this occasion. Nazwa brought up the rear of remaining pack turning for home and rather than making up any real ground, he merely improved his position by virtue of his rivals dropping away. A couple of lengths was made on the run-in, but he never looked a threat before finishing just under four lengths behind in fourth. Notwithstanding, this marks a new career best in Nazwa’s short career and another respectable effort in similar company would not be beyond him. 99
Dark Motive had been regressive on the flat and although she is bred to hold her own in this sphere, her debut effort at Stratford was rather tepid. Subject to support during the day, starting at 7/1 having been 14/1 earlier, she raced more prominently than she had first time. There were less errors this time around although she was still very untidy at the first and got in close when ridden into the fourth before jumping left at two out. Though still travelling well rounding the bend, she found herself outpaced at the top of the home straight and was labouring from thereon. It was reported that she had lost her right-fore shoe, although it is difficult to guess how badly this affected her performance. Dark Motive ran to a better level of form than first time, but she is still some way off her flat best and she may need a fair handicap mark if she is to be competitive over hurdles. 84
Gavin was only moderate on the flat for Rod Millman, but there are numerous winning jumpers in the pedigree. He became lit up on his hurdles debut at Stratford and ran out of steam before weakening rapidly. Though James Davies managed to keep him restrained in midfield, he still pulled hard and his jumping was not so tidy this time. He was still amongst the leaders turning for home, but had little left to give and was ultimately beaten by twenty lengths. Gavin is not a completely forlorn hope if he learns to settle, but he will more likely ply his trade in low-grade handicaps whatever happens. 82
Free Degrees showed little on the flat and the descriptions for her two hurdles outings to date read as “raced keenly and prominently, made errors, faded”. With first time cheekpieces applied, it was not too dissimilar on this occasion although she raced closer to midfield here. The mistakes were still there and she lost touch at the turn for home before finishing thirty lengths behind the winner. 66
Business Flight dropped from a mark of 63 to 48 since the end of March and had nothing in his pedigree to suggest he might be adept in this sphere. Sent off at 200/1 and racing in the rear, he did not jump badly apart from being steady at the fourth and big at the fifth, and more of his impediments came from outside interference. Notwithstanding, he was off the bridle and getting detached before reaching the last in the back and eventually finished tailed off. 50
Vunipola had not been seen since New Year’s Eve but there was some promise on the first of his two outings. His pedigree is not unfeasible either and while he went out to 12/1 from an opening morning show of 6/1, he was steady in the ring and sent off at 17/2. However, he was very fresh on his first outing in eight months and along with making errors at the third, fifth and sixth, would never leave the rear of the field. Vunipola has the potential to do much better on paper, but there is little encouragement to be drawn from this evidence. 40
Sentilly is a sibling of two who have shown reasonable form in the sphere, but has yet to show anything on either the flat or from two jumps outings. Sent off at 200/1, she started the race prominently, was steep over the first, blundered at the second, lost her position from there, jumped left along the back and was pulled up before reaching the straight. 0
This is what I’d been waiting for.
Many thanks as always.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"My pleasure, Ian
Since the long 2021/22 prospects list is already starting to get quite aged, I will be updating it soon. Here’s a list of who’s already on, who’s due an update and who might be added. If there are any horses you would like to see added, or any updates you feel would be useful, please let me know. Thank you :)
Preview for tomorrow’s juvenile at Fontwell. The one for Perth should be up before breakfast. Enjoy :)
After the cancellation of its mid August meeting, Fontwell hosts its first juvenile hurdle of the season on Sunday. A contest which has been held each year without interruption since 2005, its winners’ average seasonal RPR of 111.25 is lower than those generally held at the course (114.71) which itself, is a few pounds lower than the average in the sphere. It has been won by a couple of respectable types in the past decade such as last season’s dual listed winner Talking About You, and the eventually smart Vosne Romanee. This year’s renewal does not threaten to be anything out of the ordinary, although it does feature the first appearance of a recruit with French jumping experience. Oneonechop heads those with British hurdles form while Tara Iti makes a bid for redemption for a yard that has won this contest on three occasions. Fontwell’s clear round rate of 94.88% is in the bottom ten of the country with the figure for newcomers falling to 90.46%. The winning DIs at Fontwell of 1.15 median, 1.41 mean are on the lower side of average with the figures for this contest dropping to 1.06 and 1.36. The going is currently good, good to firm in places, and with no rain expected in the meantime, the course is being watered.
Kinghenrytheninth bg Ben Clarke f6-0-0 (47) 48
Heeraat (Whipper){7-f}(1.40) 1/0 Annaluna 1st 2m5½f Handicap Hurdle (97), Exeter 2012
Ben Clarke has been training pointers for a few seasons and has earned a strike rate of 33% in hunter chases. Granted his NH licence last month, he is set to have his first runner over hurdles in the shape of Kinghenrytheninth. A maiden after six outings for Roger Teal, former inmates of whom are without a winner in the sphere from three, Kinghenrytheninth showed only moderate form on the flat at up to a mile. He was last seen beaten over nine lengths by Sir Taweel in a Windsor handicap off 50 in late April. Sire Heeraat is without a winner from four, although dam Annaluna did win a handicap over twenty-one furlongs as a three-year-old and the likes of Devilment (3/4), Atlaal (4/2) Annie Power (4/3) and Eddiemaurice (4/4) appear on the damline. Notwithstanding, Kinghenrytheninth’s form leaves him with a lot to find on his rivals and his tendency to pull and inexperience beyond a mile makes his task a difficult one first time.Oneonechop bc David Pipe f19-6-5 (75) 79 j4-0-1 (104) 88 95
Kheleyf (Captain Chop){16-c}(3.00) 2/1 Kheliana Chope 1st 3550m 4YO Conditions Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2020
A six time winner in France, Oneonechop’s equivalent rating of 79 placed him well above the typical recruit for the time of year. He had faded tamely on his British/hurdling debut at Stratford but finished with much more purpose and was arguably worried out of a better position when third at Newton Abbot on his second outing. Found out by the trip back at Stratford, he ran no kind of race on his return to the flat at Ffos Las, but confirmed himself to be well suited by Newton Abbot when finishing second off 104 in a handicap there a fortnight ago. Slightly keen in the early stages, he fluctuated in racing between mid division and just behind the leaders. He was boxed in on the turn for home, but while unable to make any impression on the easy winner, he outbattled his older opponents in the straight to finish a clear second. His hurdling was very neat for the most part and that performance very much sets the standard here on domestic form. Furthermore, David Pipe’s juveniles have a strike rate of 21.43% at this venue and he saddled Talimos to win this contest in 2009. However, for all of the positives in the profile of Oneonechop, the extended trip around a course like Fontwell is unlikely to play to his strengths.Risky Business chg Martin Smith f5-0-0 (40) 47 j1-0-0 (-) 10 9
Mastercraftsman (Dream Ahead){4-g}(2.33) 3/1 Laurel Seeker 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (100), Hereford 1998
Though a son of the prolific Mastercraftsman, Risky Business had little else going for him going into his jumps bow at Stratford eight weeks ago. Representing a trainer without a winner in this sphere, his best effort on the flat was a five length fifth off 46 in a Yarmouth handicap. Though he briefly showed in a prominent position in the early stages, Risky Business soon lost his place after a series of cautious jumps and was struggling from the fourth. He completed in his own time and it was reported that he lost a shoe.Sir Taweel bg Neil King f8-1-0 (60) 64 j1-0-0 (-) 53 53
Sir Prancealot (Duke Of Marmalade){8-f}(0.85) 3/1 Big Occasion 2nd Scottish Grand National (132), Ayr 2013
The first representative of the season for Neil King, Sir Taweel won a mile handicap on the flat off 56 for Mohamed Moubarak in April and while he failed to progress from there, his trainer and pedigree suggests he can find his level in this sphere. The yard has a solid winner to runner rate of 31.91% with juvenile hurdlers and has won three from twelve at this venue. Sir Prancealot has had just the one winner from ten thus far, but the damline includes good jumpers such as Big Occasion (3/1), Forgotten Voice (3/1) and Aigle Royal (4/2). However, he did not make the most compelling of hurdling debuts at Stratford a fortnight ago as he did not leave the rear of the field until passing tailed off rivals after the race had finished as a contest. His cause was hindered by the hurdles he encountered early on and while he can not be blamed for getting badly baulked on landing at the first, his being very steady and close at the second, and big and ungainly at the third, were his own doing. The yard’s charges typically improve with experience and while Sir Taweel accomplished very little first time, he would not be a forlorn hope just yet. Nevertheless, although he can be expected to at least improve from his debut, the yard is not in a good vein of form at the moment and any improvement would have to be quite dramatic in order to challenge the principals here.Tara Iti chg Gary Moore f6-1-0 (62) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Sixties Icon (Sir Percy){9-c}(0.78) 3/1 Prince Of India 1st 2m½f Maiden Hurdle, Taunton 1998
Despite fetching just 17,500 guineas at the Tattersalls online sale back in May, Tara Iti has a profile which arguably exceeds the price tag. His sire, Sixties Icon, has a solid winners to runners rate of 19.05%, with 55.56% of his juveniles improving for the switch in codes, and his progeny has a healthy strike rate of 16.44% between June and December. Gary Moore also has a compelling record in the sphere with a winner/runner rate of 33.82%, an above-average improvement rate of 47.11%, and a strike rate at Fontwell of 27.91% with three scoring in this particular contest. One from six for Ed Dunlop on the flat, Tara Iti’s sole win came in a heavy ground mile nursery at Leicester off a mark of 60. He had not quite built on that performance on his first two outings this term and while he was supported ahead of his hurdling debut at Newton Abbot in early July, he was most disappointing on that occasion. Usually awkward on the flat, he was already agitated prior to the off and his being held up from the start further compounded his fate. Refusing to settle and further lit up in the early stages, Tara Iti was badly baulked at the first and almost unseated at the second. From there, he was never travelling with any ease or jumping with any fluency. Getting detached after the first in the back, he was pulled up before the straight. It later emerged that he burst a blood vessel, although Tara Iti looked destined for a poor performance from the outset. Tara Iti was last seen at Brighton a month ago where, stepping up to ten furlongs, he spent most of the contest trying to detach his riders arms from their sockets. He would finish last of six, but was beaten by less than three lengths which at least indicated a return to form. Gary Moore has a habit of winning juvenile hurdles at Fontwell and his charges can often exceed market expectations. Tara Iti is certainly capable of running a big race although his debut performance and general temperament would still be matters of concern.Ramure bf Stuart Edmunds j3-0-0 (57.0 – 125.4) 90 96
Maresca Sorrento (Blue Bresil){9-c}(0.33) 2/1 Ocean’s Wind 1st 3900m 4yo hurdle, Saint Malo 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/ramure
The first of this season’s juvenile hurdlers imported from France is the thrice raced maiden Ramure. She made her racecourse bow on the first of June in Compiegne’s Prix du Grand Maitre – a debutant contest won in the past by the likes of Analifet, Triana du Berlais and Cicalina. Sent off the outsider of the field, Ramure jumped reasonably well, but was firmly beaten when getting brought down at the penultimate flight. Nine days later, she reappeared at Dieppe where she jumped well enough in a prominent position, but weakened tamely on leaving the back stretch and ultimately finished tailed off. Taking a step up in class on her return to Compiegne, she put up another mostly sound round of hurdling and was still in a fighting position entering the straight before losing touch on the approach to the last, finishing just over eighteen lengths behind the winner. Patrice Lenogue has been responsible for three juveniles in the UK thus far with a winner coming in the form of David Pipe’s €140,000 Hexham hero Great Tempo. Sire Maresca Sorrento has yet to have a winner from six juveniles outside of France, but he has gotten his fair share of winning juveniles in his native country. The dam failed to win over jumps but is a sibling of a Saint Malo winner, and top class sorts in Tamarindo (3/1), Sun Storm (3/1) and Djakadam (3/2) descend from the third dam. The most intriguing part of Ramure’s profile is her joining Stuart Edmunds, whose winner to runner rate of 50% in the division is bettered only by Henderson, Mullins and Nicholls. Ramure’s performances currently warrant a mark not exceeding the high 90s which is a far cry from the 125 suggested by her valeur. All the same, she will be her underrated trainer’s first recruit from the French jumping circuit and as he has already had a runner-up in the sphere this term, it will be interesting to see what he can achieve with this mostly fluent hurdler.The Yellow Mini bf Michael Wigham f14-0-1 (45) 53
Cannock Chase (Primo Valentino){22-d}(1.00) 2/2 Arakhan 1st 2m4f Novices’ Hurdle, Aintree 2019
Canadian International winner Cannock Chase has yet to have a runner over jumps. His sire, Lemon Drop Kid, has a decent winner to runner rate of 38.46% in the sphere and with a DI of 0.82 and a height of 16.1hh, Cannock Chase has reasonable credentials for the sphere. His first juvenile hurdler is set to be The Yellow Mini who has had fourteen starts on the flat without a win to her name. Racing under the care of Polly Gundry until late July, The Yellow Mini ran her best race four outings ago when finishing three quarters of a length second in a Bath handicap off 45. She was 80/1 that day and no effort either side has matched that performance. The damline has plenty who have tried hurdling, although only Arakhan (2/2) and Empire Park (3/1) were able to score in the discipline. Michael Wigham has had two winning juveniles from fourteen, but has not participated in the sphere since November 2016 and is without any jumps winner since May 2018.tl;dr
Kinghenrytheninth – First hurdles runner for new trainer. Damline has hints of promise but poor flat form and tendency to pull set a difficult task.Oneonechop – Flat winner in France who jumps well and has good form at Newton Abbot. However, has been found out by the trip at Stratford and is uncertain to fully see out this contest.
Risky Business – His being by Mastercraftsman is the only positive in his profile. His flat form is poor and he jumped too cautiously when well beaten on his hurdles bow.
Sir Taweel – Fair winner on flat. Trainer does well in sphere and there are good jumpers on the damline. Accomplished little on his hurdling debut and while he can improve, yard is not in good form.
Tara Iti – Good profile for the sphere and flat form is respectable in this company. Trainer does well at the venue but Tara Iti disappointed on hurdling debut and temperament remains a large concern.
Ramure – Unplaced in three outings over hurdles in France. Mostly a fluent jumper, form is still credible in the context of this race and trainer has a good record in the sphere.
The Yellow Mini – Fourteen race maiden on the flat with rating of 45. Feasible prospects on breeding and trainer has been capable in past, although not to the to offset the negatives in the profile.
Strong prospects
1. Ramure
Reasonable prospects
2. Oneonechop
3. Tara Iti
Feasible prospects
4. Sir Taweel
Moderate prospects
5. Kinghenrytheninth
Negligible prospects
6. The Yellow Mini
7. Risky BusinessSuperb read – thank you.
I’m of the view that Fontwell Park presents a bit more of a stamina test for juvenile hurdlers than some tracks.
It’s the better part of two and a quarter miles for a start and they have a tendency to overwater outside the winter months.
I think it will be plenty far enough for Onechopchop and stoutly-bred Ramure, with that handy 7lb gender allowance, might outstay him.
Up at Perth, New Reality catches the eye with his Flat OR of 81, but though a 1m4f Maiden winner and sure to stay IMO, he wasn’t competitive off 83 in his sole handicap and he has to overcome his lack of experience.
I thought Aliomanna ran ok at Stratford and I have her ahead of Moneykenny on my numbers.
I will be really interested to read your in-depth preview of the race.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Cheers Ian for your words and your thoughts. Agree entirely that Fontwell is more testing than the norm for young hurdlers and Oneonechop could very well be outstayed. New Reality is a fascinating recruit but am not sure if he will be suited by Perth. Far be it from me to assume a role of backseat placing, but I really think that Oneonechop and New Reality have their entries mixed up!
Anyways, Perth :)
Scotland’s first juvenile hurdle of the season takes place tomorrow and is the resurrection of a contest that was held at Perth three times between 2014 and 2016. The field sizes for those editions were three, three and five; although while only five are set to face the starter here, there are only two races on the card with a larger number of runners. Juvenile hurdles overlooked by Scone Palace are generally modest affairs with their average winners’ seasonal RPR of 110.77 being the eleventh lowest in the country. The Wallace Line, who won this race in 2014, was the best graduate from this contest – going on to finish third in the Finale. Ski Sunday and Orsippus are other decent juveniles to have ran here before the winter. This year’s renewal looks fairly ordinary but it should be competitive as the placed hurdles form is of a respectable standard and the newcomers have flat ratings sufficient to be capable at this level. A flat, right handed circuit, Perth’s easy configuration and generally firmer ground contribute to higher DIs than average of 1.50 median, and 1.58 mean. The clear round rate of 98.12% is the fifth highest in Britain and is also one of the kinder tracks for hurdling newcomers. The going is currently good with only slim prospects of rainfall during the morning.
Boundsy Boy bg Oliver Greenall f3-0-0 (60) 62 j3-0-2 (100) 85 91
Awtaad (Diktat){21-a}(1.25) 2/1 Majestic Sun 6th 2m Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (97), Plumpton 2015
Fetching just 1,500 guineas when leaving Richard Fahey for Oliver Greenall last Autumn, Boundsy Boy ran with credit when an eleven length second to Koi Dodville at Aintree after a break of 309 days. His jumping had been acceptable and though the form is moderate, he was entitled to improve for his first outing after a long absence and surgeries to his wind and tackle. This is just what he did a month later at Stratford. Sent straight into the lead from flagfall, Boundsy Boy got in quite close to the first, but though he was by no means slick, he was competent enough from there until the penultimate flight where he was low and untidy. Joined at the top of the straight, he was unable to regain the lead despite having the rail to help. Nevertheless, he did not capitulate without a fight. His official mark of 103 looked harsh ahead of his handicap debut at Bangor twelve days ago and surrounded by more mature horses, his jumping also suffered as he was less nimble and made a couple of careless errors. Racing in the rear, he made some headway along the back, but made no impression from three out and would finish thirty-one lengths behind the winner. Boundsy Boy should appreciate this return to juvenile company and with his Stratford form being just about the strongest on offer over hurdles, he can give a good account of himself.Don’t Look Back grg Lucinda Russell f7-0-1 (64) 69
Oasis Dream (Kirkwall){14-c}(1.91) 2/1 Sleepy Hollow 5th Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 2010
Local-ish trainer Lucinda Russell does get winning juveniles and although her overall record is just below average, half of her winners did so first time out. Her first runner in the sphere for this campaign is Don’t Look Back who left Richard Hughes for 11,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. Though he failed to score in seven outings, Don’t Look Back has run consistently and his rating of 64 is a fair reflection of his ability. However, he has been awkward under pressure and of Richard Hughes’s nine former inmates in the sphere, none have won or even improved on their flat exploits. Oasis Dream has one of the poorest records in the division with a winner runner rate of 6.67%, and an improvement rate of just 5.26%. The damline is more promising however as uncle Sleepy Hollow was a good novice hurdler and cousin Fiveandtwenty was a useful juvenile hurdler last term. Furthermore, Don’t Look Back is a full brother to Gale Force Ten whose record as a sire in this sphere is three winners from eight with an improvement rate of 80%. The overall profile of Don’t Look Back is something quite akin to the curate’s egg as although there is enough merit to make him an interesting recruit, there are a couple of elements which destabilise his case in this company.Moneykenny grg Olly Murphy f5-1-1 (65) 70 j2-0-1 (-) 87 90
Kendargent (Kheleyf){14-c}(1.22) 2/1 Blinka Me 92 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (82), Sedgefield 2012
After leaving Andrew Balding for 26,000 guineas at the Tattersalls May sale, Moneykenny looked to have solid prospects ahead of his hurdling debut at Newton Abbot in early July. A 65 rated winner on the flat, his breeding and training connections suggested he should at least match his flat ability in time. However, he was very keen in the early stages and jumped the first with little fluency – wandering on the approach and jumping big and markedly to his right. Though his jumping would settle down over the next couple, he was still more than a handful for Aidan Coleman, keeping a keen grip passing the stands. Nevertheless, he still had enough energy to move into the lead turning for home and traded as low as 1.1 in-running. However, he landed steeply at the penultimate flight and got in very tight at the last before relinquishing the lead near the finish. Returning to the venue a fortnight later, he was weighted to come out on top. However, despite opening in the ring at 11/10, he drifted out to 5/2 and ran accordingly. Racing in touch on the inside, he was cautious over the first two and never really settled into a solid rhythm. While he was slightly baulked on landing at the penultimate flight, his race was already run by that stage. There was no explanation offered for this performance. He makes his return after a seven week absence but with his yard landing a double earlier in the week, his ability gives him some chance. Although given that he is prone to inconsistency, it remains to be seen if he is able to run to his potential.New Reality bg Nigel Hawke f6-1-0 (81) 86
New Approach (Teofilo){5-f}(0.60) 2/1 Novis Adventus 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (119), Worcester 2018
The passage between the yards of Jim Bolger and Nigel Hawke was covered earlier in the week when Boulette ran at Worcester. While Nigel Hawke’s record in the sphere is respectable in and of itself, it becomes quite impressive when taking former Bolger horses in isolation. Five from eight such horses had been winners prior to Wednesday and Boulette came very close to making it six from nine when let down by a lack of experience. The latest animal cut from this cloth is New Reality who, with a flat mark of 81, is also the highest rated of this particular class. After failing to breach the front nine in a couple of outings last November, New Reality finished a respectable sixth on his return at Cork in first time tongue tie. He broke his duck next time when winning a Tipperary maiden over an extended twelve furlongs on yielding ground. Tracking the leader from the outset, he was getting shoved along with three furlongs left to race. Nevertheless, despite looking green under pressure, he stuck to his task well and managed to get his head in front in the shadow of the post. Four subsequent winners have since come out of that contest and the form took a large boost when the runner-up had six future winners behind when winning a Navan maiden by eleven lengths. New Reality stepped down in trip by a couple of furlongs at Naas next time and though not disgraced in finishing a five length fourth to Benaud, he did find himself rather flat footed. He was last seen in the Ulster Derby back in June where he ran no kind of race on the good ground and finished detached. Sire New Approach has a strong record in the division with a winner to runner rate of 38.10%, and cousin Novis Adventus (also by New Approach) was a useful handicap hurdler. New Reality has much the strongest form from the flat and while the yard’s runners typically improve with experience, this did not prevent Boulette from running a fine race the other day and Nigel Hawke’s record with juveniles at Perth stands at two winners from three. However, even if his performance in the Ulster Derby is ignored, New Reality will almost certainly need a much sterner test than is offered tomorrow before reaching his potential in this sphere.Aliomaana chf Milton Harris f5-0-2 (74) 75 j1-0-1 (-) 87 86
Raven’s Pass (Sea The Stars){8-f}(1.29) 2/1 Celestial Force 1st 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (120), Newton Abbot 2021
Though winless after five outings for John Gosden, Aliomaana’s rating of 74 is in the eightieth percentile for flat recruits in the division. She twice managed to grab second in a pair of all-weather maidens over ten furlongs at Wolverhampton and Chelmsford. At the former, she was no match for subsequent Oaks fourth Save A Forest, but did grab her second from a subsequent winner and was behind another subsequent winner in Percy’s Pride at Chelmsford. That would be her last start for John Gosden before getting knocked down for 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale. While former residents of Clarehaven Stables seldom maintain their flat form between codes, Milton Harris was able to get Pyramid Place to win three times last season and Aliomaana looked another promising recruit when third at Stratford last week. Available at 33/1 in the morning, she was eventually backed down to 12/1 by the off and was the only horse to seriously pursue the winner from the outset. Though fairly keen in the early stages, she settled better going on the second circuit. The gap between herself and the leader fluctuated and while she still held second turning into the straight, she had little left and ultimately had to settle for a thirteen length third. Aliomaana did make a few minor errors – namely hopping through some of the earlier jumps, slightly skewing over the fifth and, when probably tired, steadying at the last where she went to her left. Notwithstanding, it was a pleasing debut for the most part and while her tiring late on meant she ran below her flat form, there was enough to build on to suggest she can be more competitive in this discipline – particularly with her sex allowance here.tl;dr
Boundsy Boy – Cheap purchase but ran creditably on his first two starts over hurdles. Failed to run to form in Bangor handicap last time but should appreciate the return to novice company.Don’t Look Back – Consistent maiden on the flat but has raced awkwardly. Sire has poor record although there are a couple of good novice hurdlers on the damline. Patchy profile overall.
Moneykenny – Winner on the flat and not without promise on hurdling debut. Disappointed when last seen seven weeks ago, lacks consistency and has a suspect temperament.
New Reality – Much the strongest flat form and represents interesting connections. However, will almost certainly need a much sterner test in order to be seen to best effect.
Aliomaana – Placed on flat for John Gosden and ran with promise on hurdles debut at Stratford last week. Tired late on but likely to improve and comes out well at the weights.
Strong prospects
1. Aliomaana
Reasonable prospects
2. New Reality
3. Boundsy Boy
Feasible/Moderate prospects
4. Don’t Look Back
5. MoneykennyHello Batchelors, given the trainer’s strike rate and the run of Boulette the other day, I think the newcomer has a very good chance on debut.
Will be an interesting race for sure.
Thank you for the write up.Outstanding previews.
Looking forward to both races.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"While awaiting BH’s definitive analysis, I would just say I thought Aliomanna was in with a chance of holding the winner when she departed at Perth, while I think the Fontwell Park race might turn out to be decent form.
The time wasn’t bad and the two fillies pulled well clear of the rest.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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