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Made my day Kev
Come on Limato.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I like Brando at the prices
Likes Newmarket both courses and has put in good efforts in behind Harry Angel including this race last year
He’s had a similar break of days since running as last year and had a stinker at York last year so should be in better spirits this time around after getting beat just under 3 lengths at the Curragh to none other than Merchant Navy.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I’ll pull my hair out if Dreamfield wins. Gutted even now about that Royal Ascot race.
Limato is a cracking bet in my opinion at the prices
Limato @ 12/1
Given what happened to him at Ascot am glad Harry Angel does not defend his crown.
Value Is EverythingAccording to the Racing Post Coolmore are to run an “armada” in the July Cup. That was always going to happen; they probably know other owners are pxxxxd off with their team tactics. Suspect large owners will put spoilers in, in order to ruin US Navy Flag’s chance – just as those imo cheats at Ballydoyle do when one that needs to lead/race prominently runs against them.
With an “armada” at least Coolmore will have held up outsiders to pick up the pieces after an overly strong pace.
Value Is EverythingAgreed Ginge, such a shame though because however much I love Limato I really wanted Harry to defend his crown and see him again, but not under these circumstances, they were right to give him more time.
Godolphin are well represented by Blue Point but to me this race isn’t for him and I think he might struggle with the stiff 6 furlongs and the uphill finish, he’s an Ascot specialist and doesn’t seem to run so well at Newmarket.
The Nunthorpe at York seems tailor made for him
Great race in prospect and Limato would be a popular winner at the track..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Limato would certainly be a popular winner, Jac; but why has he raced at a mile this season? Something that’s imo met with a lot of unjust criticism. When these choices are made there’s usually good (or rather bad) reason. Unless it was the owner’s decision – the only logical reason I can see of the (usually wise) trainer wanting to run at a mile is if Limato wasn’t showing the same speed at home and that seemed to be born out by the way he raced. Is age catching up with this gelding? If on the downgrade it’s not as if he’ll be swiftly retired and off to stud and is a six year old after all. Even racing at a mile was going backwards by the 6f marker, so it wasn’t stamina that beat him at Newbury or Ascot. Needs to do a hell of a lot better than so far this season. On the face of it no real encouragement this season. On current form 12/1 is imo poor value…
…However, four things very definitely in his favour: In previous seasons hasn’t shown his best form until this time of year or later, proven on firm ground, clearly goes really well at Newmarket/good record in this race and may have it set up for him (plenty of pace in the race). So can see why Limato is a popular choice. If he is still capable of last year’s form then 12/1 is imo very good value.
Strangely enough – being a value backer – Limato could yet be one of those rare occasions where I am more likely to take a shorter price than a bigger price. ie If there is a lot of money (shortens up) then that may in itself signify he’s showing the old sparkle at home (back to form). Where as if remaining at around 12/1 or lengthening that could signify those close to him believe he’s not the horse he was. Hope that makes sense, Jac.
Value Is Everythingmaybe GT,Mr Candy thought the older miler brigade are a weak bunch and thought lets give it a go?
Fair point nwalton, that might have been the reason for trying. However, those thinking he didn’t perform due to stamina issues better think again. Fact remains if Limato was in top form in either Lockinge or Queen Anne he should’ve travelled further before weakening – should’ve done better. In both races beaten before stamina should’ve become an issue. There must have been another reason why Limato ran so poorly. Possibility he’s just better at this time of year – we’ll see.
Value Is EverythingGinge…I think Henry Candy has conceeded that Limato just wants to sprint and doubt we will see him over a mile again.
He wasted a lot of energy in his last race at Royal Ascot pulling hard, I think a line can be drawn under that run.There is no real reason behind the fact but Limato loves the July Course at Newmarket and runs to the very best of his ability when he is there. If he can regain his crown and win the July Cup on Saturday there will be no more popular winner at the whole Meeting.
I’d like to see a few of the Ballydoyle horses on the sideines though. Can only be one reason why Smith,Tabor,Magnier have multiple entries and as it stands with 10 out of the 19 runners they could each cover one each of the remaining horses and make a path for USNF. Just one thing though half of those horses won’t be up to it and will fade before the uphill finish….
I know Limato needs cover just hope he doesn’t find himself blocked as he quickens in the final 2 furlongs.Staying positive that Harry Bentley will give him every chance.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Having a good look at this one and i keep coming back to Limato myself. Mainly down to his price.
Blue Point holds the most recent best form, however, excuses can be made for Battash that day and effectively, BP had the perfect run of the race. At his price, no thanks.
Brando’s Newmarket form puts him in with a chance of finishing in the money, but i would be surprised if he can run to a level good enough to win this.
Dreamfield, master trainer who clearly thinks he’s fairly decent to pitch him in here off the back of the Wockingham where he ran brilliant. Still at 9s- the same price as a more proven Limato, i wouldn’t think he’s worth backing.
Eqtidaar, i was surprised he was good enough to win at Ascot. The front two in the market that day didn’t fire, but he still beat Sands of Mali who is a good one. Personally, couldn’t back him at 7s.
Invincible Army, didnt run as well as expected at Ascot, but some of his form entitles him to be closer price-wise, he’d be one i’ll probably be having a small bit on.
Sands of Mali- solid and consistent, i’d probably expect him to run very well here and probably finish in the first 5- but i will leave him at the price.
Sioux Nation- thought he was in with a major chance at Ascot, but for some reason blew out. He’s 20s now and in theory i should give him another chance, but it won’t be tomorrow.
USNF- Clearly not finishing well enough over a mile, is another with a very good chance perhaps, but at 13/2 given he will be there to be shot at late on, i will swerve him.
Limato + Invicible Army the two at the prices
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Redkirk Warrior is plenty short at 12/1, I don’t think he wants fast ground or 6 furlongs in an ideal world. Hopefully Brando and Sir Dancealot stay above him in price and I’ll be looking to take him on uno v uno as they both relish the July course.
The race as a whole is tricky, I can’t put my finger on any one in particular with great confidence so I’ll stay out of the win market.
Sioux Nation 20/1 e/w 4 places (second bet).
Had him down as a 5F hoss for some reason until I went back through his form tonight and he has won nicely I’ve 6F especially his run beating Beckford.
Last run everything went wrong and at the price I’m happy to take the chance on him, especially with getting a good toe in via USNF (drawn next to each other).Blue Point looks the standout sprinter at the moment and I’m not sure I’ve seen enough quality from the 3 year olds to be honest. I think he’ll win so kept it simple. Blue Point 11/4.
BLUE POINT is flattered by beating Battaash last time – latter went too fast early. However, BP’s position in the Kings Stand in relation to the rest probably means he’s the best horse here. Whether the improvement shown at Ascot was anything to do with it being 5f remains to be seen. But he won there due to superior stamina (if that makes sense in a 5f race). So imo should be equally effective at 6.. And with Appleby in excellent form 3/1 worth a saver at the very least.
I’ve got to be against US Navy Flag. Admittedly he’s better than the St James’s Palace and 6f will suit more than a mile, but it’ll have to. Two year old Group 1 winners need to improve to win up to scratch Group 1’s as three year olds. USNF probably needs a personal best to win here and although a three year old has had more racing than some five or six year olds. So form is more exposed. Also seems best when able to dominate and there looks quite a bit of pace in the race – including drawn near him. Poor value imo.
ESTIQDAAR is currently not as good as any of the previous Commonwealth Cup winners. But hasn’t had much racing and an improving lightly raced three year old. Plenty seem to think Sands Of Mali unlucky in finishing fast, but imo Estiqdaar made his move too soon and as a consequence running on fumes late on, a length or two better than winning distance suggests. Fahy horse has also had a lot more racing at this level, far more exposed than the Stoute’s. Personally can’t understand why latter is now shorter. 9/1 Estiqdaar is massive!
Dreamfield is interesting, beaten at a short price in the Wolingham handicap and although it was under a big weight others around him were off similar. However, is obviously very well thought of by Britain’s premier trainer and is a progressive lightly raced four year old (only had 4 races compared to US Navy Flag’s 15). Wouldn’t be a surprise to see him make the necessary improvement in to a Group 1 winner. If there weren’t so many pace horses I’d be with him here. Will he take on the Coolmore first string in order to help the owner-companion/favourite?
If the real Limato turns up has a good chance. I haven’t seen much encouragement this season in two races at a mile – wouldn’t have won them at 6f. Possible age is catching up with him. However, ground is ideal and has come to form at this time of year in previous seasons. Good record in this particular race… And a positive recent market move could be taken as pointing to a return to form.
I’d be against Redkirk Warrior. Australian sprinters haven’t been so dominent since their steroid rules were tightened up and although RW is one of their best at the moment he’s not a standout. Disappointing at Ascot and generally Australian’s have done far less well at Newmarket – where they’ve been over here for longer.
BRANDO disappointed last time out, but that did come in Ireland in May; has a good record fresh. In last year’s July Cup was a good third behind Harry Angel, and could’ve done better. Simon Rowlands pointed out he produced excellent speed fractions after being held up in a slowly run race and better than the result. Proved correct when winning Maurice De Gheest next time. If – as seems likely – today’s race is run more evenly, could cause an upset at a big price.
Another outsider with a bit of a sqeak with David Elsworth in good form is SIR DANCEALOT, taken 39/1. One of the best looking horses in the field and at least as good as ever last time (7f) despite taking a strong hold. Truly run 6f will probably suit ideally, so could yet improve. One that could pick up the pieces if they go too fast early.
O’Brien’s outsiders there probably just in case US Navy Flag is forced in to setting an overly fast gallop. Sioux Nation was favourite in the Commonwealth Cup, but ran as though something amiss in 16th – soon beaten. Why? Had won at the meeting in 2017. If there was a valid reason then 25/1 might prove value (trouble is that’s a big “IF”). Market move either way will probably tell quite a bit about his chance but if shortening will be too late to get on. LOL. Spirit Of Valor and Fleet Review in truth don’t seem up to this. Intelligence Cross flattered by proximity in 2017, jockey misjudging it by setting a slow pace – no doubt to connections disgust. Doubt whether he’ll get in the way of his stable companion today, but is drawn the other side anyway. Might do his duty by setting a moderate pace that side.
Estiqdaar, Sir Dancealot and Brando main bets, saver Blue Point.
Value Is Everything
Made my day Kev 
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