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Fascinating race. Does Postponed have the speed to win a group one over a sharp ten furlongs? Does Hawkbill? US Army Ranger would be an interesting runner here. Despite his pedigree he’s shown a good turn of foot at Chester and at Epsom only to appear to flatten out in the final furlong or so.
Postponed though is certainly among the best horses in the world right now. Surely he’ll beat this lot?? I have 5/2. I think that’s a good price.
Any other views?
Time Test’s run in the Eclipse on going unsuited puts him bang there will Hawkbill if the going comes up good to firm he’ll have no where to hide. Postponed looks a monster at 12f, is he as good at 10f..? US Army Ranger is interesting but like Postponed got pulled from an intending run. Time Test got crabbed when winning last time but Charlton didn’t have him spot on apparently, I’m prepared to follow him off the cliff one more time but will have to wait a bit nearer the day as he’s going dependant but am tempted to play early at 5’s
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I can’t even consider Time Test he’s a group 3 horse to me. Always excuses. One standout performance at Ascot but it was a dire race where (unless I’m mistaken) not one horse behind has won since.
If he wins I’ll hold up my hands and say I was wrong, but at this stage I don’t fear him at all.
The horse in second didn’t run again after.
The 9th that day Bocca Baciata has run 10 times since winning 3 times and was 4 1/2 length 2nd to Minding in the Pretty Polly.
Time Test himself has done little wrong since to be fair. The Breeders Cup race aside he was beaten 4th in the International last year not far behind Golden Horn and 3rd behind Hawkbill and The Gurkha only a couple of lengths both races with soft in the description. A horse further back that day won the Prince Of Wales and I think with Time Test running okay but not at his best on soft could have gone close if Charlton had not wet his pants at the thought of the Japanese superstar who turned out to be a damp squid. His 3 wins since the Ascot race last year didn’t have any soft and I think it’s a case of him being a horse that needs his ideal conditions to be seen at his best. It’s just a shame that when the big races have come about the going turned against him.
There can be no excuses if the going is good or better at York this year.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Varian having fewer runners than normal.
I wouldn’t be backing Postponed ante-post.Value Is EverythingI broadly agree GT but the uncertainty about Postponed has seen him drift towards a backable price. Another 3/4 of a point and I’ll be very tempted. It’s one of those situations where it’ll be a big positive if the horse even takes part.
Take Postponed out and you’ve got a diabolical race. I’m a Time Test doubter, vibes are awful for US Army Ranger and others are full of holes. I don’t think Hawkbill is a monster but it could be his race to lose quite soon.
Why are the vibes awful for US Army ranger?? Have you heard anything specific or are just guessing?
The going was on the soft side in the Derby, previous to that at Chester on good ground Us Army Ranger needed every centimeter at a speed track not showing a great deal of speed and on debut he won at 10f but that was on heavy. He’s only had the three runs so it’s only an assumption by myself but perhaps 10f on quick going may not suit. O’Brien had also said that the Royal Whip at the Curragh could be his comeback race admittedly a 10f race. I think he’s a proper stayer and had there been a decent miler in the yard then The Gurkha would probably be running in the top 10f races.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I am with Hawkbill here. The Gurkha did the form no harm and winners have come from all six of his winning streak races.
The first time he ran this season I decided I would go with him until he was beaten. He seems a horse worth going with on his roll and Postponed sets a good, rather than formidable standard at the head of the market. It seemed prudent to take Hawkbill at 9/1 for the Champion Stakes as well, as you would feel sure he will shorten for that race if he wins.
US Army Ranger hasn’t shown me that dropping in trip at York is going to suit him and I think he’ll be done for speed on what evidence we have thus far. He also has an unscheduled pit stop in his build up to the race.
Time Test is one I have never warmed to, maybe I am wrong but I feel he’s just a bit short of genuine top class. I’ll keep opposing him at the top level and stick with my pal Hawkbill here, he’s a very likeable sort who has made good strides this year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Would fast ground worry you about Hawkbill Steve? He has done all his winning with cut.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Would fast ground worry you about Hawkbill Steve? He has done all his winning with cut.
A bit of cut would help but he’s more likely to have the speed to win this than Postponed or US Army Ranger. I wouldn’t fancy either of those two to serve it up to The Gurkha in a contest over 10F.
US Army Ranger’s 10F win came on ground that looked like the Somme and it was an egg and spoon race in terms of strength of form.
I think Hawkbill is worth chancing. He may just have been improving anyway and could have reached a similar level had the ground been different. He’s been very progressive.
If we compare him to Air Force Blue it shows a sharp contrast, because O’Brien’s colt reached a high rating quickly and was rated 120 plus at two. At around that time Hawkbill was rated 89 I think. Now Hawkbill is rated 122 and even if Air Force Blue had improved this season, he could never have improved to the extent of Hawkbill, as his starting point was so high that he would have ended up rated 155 if he did.
I think that’s a good and overlooked way of assessing potential improvement and Golden Horn showed that it is possible to find three stones improvement from 90 at 2yo, to 130 plus at three. Hopefully Hawkbill can match that by improving again slightly but the limitations of how high a horse’s ultimate rating can be historically mean that those horses who hit 120 at two are probably limited to about 10-14 lbs improvement at three, unless they are called Frankel.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Why are the vibes awful for US Army ranger?? Have you heard anything specific or are just guessing?
A big ask for USAR in this race as mentioned above. Would be a great comeback if he placed IMO. Personally i think he will stay in Ireland and go the same route as Found last year.
Hawksbill has certainly come a long way this year Steve and is probably the most improved horse in training. You may well be right and he may even improve for better ground. His action suggests to me that he may not want it TOO quick though.
In contrast to you I have always been a fan of Time Test. I saw him win at Newbury a couple of seasons back and thought he was really impressive. To be fair he has had excuses in his three Group 1 races as two of them were on soft and the other was at Keeneland at the end of the season where he didn’t run his race. Having said that he was only workmanlike last time out and I would have liked to have seen him win that race more easily. He is what I would call a Group 2/1 horse – he could win a Group 1 but it might have to be a weak one.
For me this race is all about Postponed. He is a PROPER Group 1 horse. He has won three of them and has developed into a real monster this year. There are two question marks as I see it. One is that he was pulled out of the King George – has he recovered from that? I normally don’t like after-thoughts. Second – will he be as effective over the shorter trip? Well I was watching the Coronation Stakes last night and he hit the front well over 2f out. He would have won just as easily over 10f that day and the fact that he will get a pacemaker plus the long York straight would make me think he won’t get done for a lack of toe. It is also a 10 and a HALF furlong race remember! For me he has the proven class and is a backable price BUT I would wait and see if he gets declared and if his virus-affected stable are confident he is ok.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
USAR might be talented but has the unfortunate quirk of needing cover…just as they hit the winning post
I think that although there was previous mention of the Royal Whip, Aidan has since committed USAR to the Juddmonte. I get the feeling that Aidan has always rated this horse higher than The Gurkha. A lot of people think that he doesn’t properly stay 12f, and this trip might suit him best. He has only raced 3 times, and the first time was a non event on terrible ground at the Curragh (slow motion as Aidan described it), so there could be considerable improvement in him.
I think USAR will stay 12F ok. Judging quotes from the trainer such as ” babyish, immature & learning ” you feel that the Derby came too early for him and the best is yet to come.
At the end of the day the obvious stable gamble from being unraced (33-1 down to 4-1) at one point nearly came off. Only the last minute inclusion of Harzand stopped him.
It looks like the Juddmonte is going to be some race this year, maybe the best up to now if everyone turns up.
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