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Can you summarise results to date Jose to see whether it’s highlighting anything?
Yes, that to date I’ve found the worlds best laying system if you had a bank of £2k to begin with and were willing to trade at £2 per lay.
I’ve found no winners so far and just a few placed horses. It’s not working from a P/L perspective currently, but many of the horses go off huge prices, which probably indicates not a lot of market support which is what I’ve been tracking.
Friday’s Qualifiers
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3rd, still beaten 41 lengths going off 5/1
1st, 16/1 SP. Was a NR earlier in the week.
Week Two
Winners 1 from 21
Placed 3 from 21P/L at SP – 5pts
P/L at Top Morning Odds – 1ptWednesday’s Qualifiers
Thanks to the total randomness at BHA towers, Wednesday’s qualifiers could have totalled half the horses running over jumps. The quality of racing is abysmal. Commonwealth Games here I come…..
LITTLE AL
THAT MAN FOX
PENRICI do think it is time I come up with some standardised margins of defeat for each distance to make some proper sense of this (and to make my time doing this simple) using Mr Smith’s lb to length margins. Just eliminating any judgement from myself makes it full-proof.
Thursday’s Qualifiers
Wujood
Exceedingly BoldTwo other horses of interest, but don’t quite qualify.
Welsh Dancer
I’ll round up week 3 tomorrow.
Sunday’s Qualifiers
RUM KING
SARAH PARK
PRINCE MASSINI – NRI could have finally had a good day with this today. Duplicity beaten a head at 20/1 and Sarah Park won at 16/1.
If anyone wants to try and explain how Sarah Park was handicapped, and therefore agrees with the BHA system, please have a go.
The way I read it is the run on the 6th July 2010 is probably worth around 72. 2nd went up-to 98, winner won by 3/4l so 100, Sarah Park was beaten 14l off level weights.
2 x 14 = 28
100 – 28 = 72
So a 2lb drop was obviously necessary.
17th July run. Winner is now on 101, also giving Sarah Park 8lb.
(2 X 19.5) + 8 = 47
101 – 47 = 54
And finally the 26th September run. I’m taking the 2nd, who is now rated 85, because I can’t be bothered to drag the wfa scale up as the winner is 3. I’ll be kind and use 1.5lb per length because the ground was stated as Good To Soft.
(1.5 X 19) – 1 = 27.25
85 – 27.25 = 57.75
I couldn’t quite work out why a 2lb, 5lb and 5lb drop came into it all.
Saturday’s Qualifiers
NORMINSTER
PEVENSEYJose
Norminster has been dire for over a year. The horse merely reflected the miserable time that Rayson Nixon has had of late. He had a rattling good 2008-09 but the wheels came off last winter and haven’t improved much this term.
Norminster is best on a testing track in the soft, but the way he’s gone downhill was shown by am isearable effort at Hexham.
One from Friday, Samizdat is plenty capable at a lowly level, but is a cussed character who just can’t be relied upon. Tends to be one I will happily oppose unless up against a group of equally shifty characters….. and it does happen occasionally!
Rob
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