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Kasparov,
1. Are you sure more top weights are winning – do you have recent stats to support that? Although the real question that should be asked is whether the horses that are being raised large amounts are still winning, whether they are top weight or bottom weight.
2. The handicapper doesn’t have to operate in the manner you describe, that’s what the current group have chosen to do. The alternative is to handicap a horse on it’s career profile, not alter the rating in a knee jerk fashion after every run. And to give young/novice horses the chance to develop and work up to the big tracks, rather than than force them to run at Cheltenham after winning one race.
Check out the career of a chaser called Docklands Express, who rose to the top of the tree, but did so in stages. Neither the handicapper nor the race program would permit that sort of steady development nowadays.
5. I agree that a few pounds here or there makes little difference to race results, which is why the fiddly 1 or 2 pound changes the handicapper makes to hundreds of ratings every week are so irritating. But a pound either way can make a big difference to where the trainer can run his horse. My own trainer has a chaser called Maktu, that rose from 132 to 136 for his seasonal debut, thus making it impossible to run him in any of the multitude of 0-135 races that would have suited him. When his trainer did find a 0-140 at Newbury, he finished second and got raised to 141, so now those races are barred to him as well.
It’s the same lower down the scale – a 2lb rise from 121 to 123 makes no difference at all. The same rise from 124 to 126 is a killer, because it forces the horse into a higher class of race, the majority of which are run on the big tracks with stiffer fences.
AP
Thanks Alan. The last time I looked on the Adrian Massey website the top weights were still ahead, but that site is down now. If the handicappers have now levelled the playing field this should be a big betting opportunity as I don’t think the market takes this view yet. As for horses hiked in the weights I don’t know. Worth doing some research, although I don’t know the best way to gather the data.
I think Docklands Express is an interesting example you raise. No doubt his owners were pleased with his hot streak in the early 90s when his handicap strike rate was about 50% but in my opinion this just shows he wasn’t penalised enough for winning.
Perhaps there is a philosophical issue here. Most owners with good horses want to see some form of underadjustment by the handicapper in order to allow for random fluctuations in form and perhaps to give a winner a
deservedly
better than average chance next time out. But the corollary to this is that horses that aren’t very good have to slog round for more races until they win. Maybe that would be a better system but as I understand it, it’s not the way the system is supposed to operate.
The class of the race is obviously very important and I can see that crossing a class boundary can cause problems. I was under the impression the handicappers tend to prefer round numbers in order to avoid this, but as your example shows sometimes they don’t.
A winner on this thread again. Miracles do happen………..
And just to finish off on my earlier point, when it comes to dropping horses, there must be a cut-off point as to what horse the handicappers think has to run to its mark. From that, dropping a horse more for being beat 20l in a sprint compared to one beaten 6l is pointless, unless they are going to drop the horse beaten 20l to the beaten 20l rating.
Delighted to see they were worried Ballabriggs was going to hack up over hurdles next NH season in a handicap. Considering how highly Phil Smith and co rate the best generation of chasers since the 1960’s, is 160 not tempting for something like the Hennessy Gold Cup? It’s a shame Denman’s no longer rated 180590392158 – or whatever he was really rated – because I would have had a small hope of an answer.
It’s also worth adding about the Grand National and the improvement in the quality of the race.
Some 5 year averages (Yeah, I know these are popular)
2000-2004 Average winning mark – 138.6
2007-2011 Average winning mark – 145.62000-2004 Average top weight mark – 155.8
2007-2011 Average top weight mark 158The Cheltenham Gold Cup has seen ‘improvement’ of around 6lbs over the same period (2001 excluded obviously) – that is taking the rating of the winner before they’ve won. In other words, before Mr Smith has got hold of them and rated them 180, 182, 193 and 185. Those are the ratings the highest rated horse going into the Gold Cup has had for the past 4 years. They were also all defending the race as well. They all failed.
Master Minded. Yes, Master Minded. The best horse P F Nicholls has ever trained – or he once was until a new horse entered the yard.
178, 173, 178, 178, 175, 172
Back up-to 178 now. Or is he the same 172 horse they considered he was after the Champion Chase bashing up weaker opposition at 2 1/2m? Maybe I’m being unfair. Either way, he’s not the most consistent horse in training, so maybe they’ll leave his rating alone instead of pointlessly fiddling with it for at least his next 3 starts. Or maybe not?
Wednesday’s Qualifiers
TISFREETDREAM
Friday’s Qualifiers
Casual Garcia
There’s also the entertainment of Ruthenoise running in a Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase off of 125.
Also entertaining today, if you find crass stupidity entertaining, is the handicap mark allocated to Spirit of Barbados over hurdles.
Runs in his first handicap in fiften minutes time. The novice hurdle in which he finished 4th last time is presumably the basis for his mark, though only the handicapper can explain how.
The winner Henry King is currently rated 127, the second is on 115, the third is on 120. Spirit of Barbados was six lengths behind the third at level weights.
The fifth another five lengths back, is now rated 102, the sixth won his next start and is on 113 as a result. The seventh is rated 106, the eighth has yet to get a mark, but finished second next time and got a Racing Post rating of 106.
Quite unbelievably in the face of all that evidence, Spirit of Barbados has been allocated a mark of 96 !
No surprise that despite a field of 15, he’s currently 11/10 favourite on Betfair.
AP
I notice S of B didn’t place. I wish I had spotted your comment earlier as surely 11/10 were absurdly short odds for a 15 runner handicap. I can see he was at least 11 pounds well in on a common sense interpretation of his last race but I wouldn’t have thought that would make him much better than a 3/1 shot in a big field handicap hurdle.
Doesn’t matter what your handicap mark is if you decline to jump the first hudle and turn left through the wing instead. Spirit of Barbados performed as if he’d partaken of rather too much of the Spirit of Barbados!
It will be interesting to see if the handicapper takes the opportunity to cite collateral form and puts him up next Tuesday.
AP
Frankel ran to 119 yesterday according to RPR provisionally. Interestingly enough, that’s the "yardstick" figure I thought the BHA handicappers would come up with using the 3rd and a 2.5lb per length scale.
No point focusing on Frankel on this thread, but Excelebration will be going up at least 16lbs this week for daring to contest such a race. You don’t get within 4l of a 126 rated horse without severe punishment if you’re rated 89. Good job Botti (for the same owner) won a Newmarket handicap this week with Acclamazing, who is clearly an improving sprinter, to soften the likely "blow."
I think the 5:30 at Stratford is trying to get an entry in the worst race of the year award.
Sunday’s Qualifier
Monday’s Qualifier
A bullseye! Put up by Robert Gibbs on his (truly phenomenal) thread at 25s; opened on course at 14s and wins by 5 lengths at 7s!
Yes, Tuffers, occasionally it "comes off." I didn’t see it was put up on Robert’s thread, as I wasn’t up until late today.
16th of 16
11th of 12
11th of 13Margins of 25l, 6.75l and 9.75l in sprints.
Described as landing "a bit of a gamble" on ATR, along with a "brilliant win."
Mr Portman – "It’s taken a while for him to come down to a mark he can race at."
As ever, there’s no logic in how the horse has been dropped. 3lbs for the 25l loss; 3lbs for the 6.75l loss; and 4lbs for the 9.75l loss. In those 3 runs, the horse fell from 85 to 75. The 7 runs before, where Spanish Bounty did show it was in need of a drop, the horse fell from 95 to 85.
The message has been clear for sometime – if you’re going to lose, lose in style, however deliberate or not.
Tuesday’s Qualifiers
CANADIAN DANEHILL
YAHRABI would think Canadian Danehill and Yahrab are in decline to the point where they’d need a really soft opportunity. Some of us remember Canadian Danehill’s run in the Sandown handicap in 2005 for a few reasons!
This sport is great for incredible things happening. Just in case a crazy gamble is landed on Dado Mush today, the horse now has a mention. Not run since 2009, out of form then, dropping in the weights – should have no hope, but these things do happen about 4 times a year.
Kidajo. Where do I start? Oh yeah, the fact he doesn’t appear to be very quick, but he’s quick enough to be given a hurdles rating of 76. Best RPR of 69 over hurdles, for what it’s worth.
Beaten 100l, 60l and 71l in NHF races.
Beaten 53l, 128l, and 115l in 3 hurdles runs.
His career highlight is getting within 46l of the 118 rated (at the time) Pepite Rose – and carrying 12lbs more.
http://www.sandown.co.uk/forms/horse-of-the-year/
In the absence of the Anglo-Irish Jump Racing Awards this year, Sandown Park has also teamed up with Racing for Change to host the prestigious Jump Racing’s Horse of the Year Award, which was decided by public vote for the first time last year. Five truly deserving candidates have been shortlisted by representatives from Britain and Ireland, including the Head of Handicapping from both the British Horseracing Authority and the Irish Turf Club, and have been chosen based on their official rating, their role in promoting Jump Racing, or a combination of the two.
Big Buck’s, Long Run, Hurricane Fly, Master Minded and Sizing Europe. Did Phil take two weeks to come up with that list? Best horse in each division that matters – not hard to work out the formula used.
What’s happened to the Anglo-Irish Jump Racing Awards this year? Lack of sponsorship?
The actual promotion of the prestigious award (or lack of) is something that deserves an update on the Rod Street thread. When I’m more aware of the ATR ride of the week, are RfC really doing their job?
Jose,
Almost right with Excelebration, who goes up 20lbs to 109. On the flat there are also several other horses ‘punished’ for having the temerity to prove themselves better than the handicapper originally guessed.
The £250,000 Sales race must have been Group 3 class at least, as the 4th, Namibian, was put up 18lbs to 100, and the 6th, Chef, also got an 18lb raise to 96.
Happy Today was bumped up 19lbs for his second place in the Listed Fielden Stakes, which looked a dire renewal to me, but what do I know?
Show Rainbow went from 82 to 98 for finishing 4th in the Nell Gwyn and to demonstrate equality of the sexes, Yaseer went up 19lbs for his 3rd in the Craven.
Meanwhile,in the jumping game, where of course horses are never unfairly raised for taking on high rated opponents in novice races, Bottman was put up from 121 to 134 for daring to finish second in a five runner novice hurdle at Cheltenham. And they wonder why these races attract small fields?
AP
It’s a pity Spruzzo slipped under your radar, Jose. Raised to a mark of 55 after his win on 7th May last year he was then beaten 16l, 60l, 16.5l and finally 73l. As ever, his mark dropped in a random fashion but after those four defeats he was down to a mark of 42.
He’s just obliged at 100/1
*Edit*
I should have mentioned that he was 11lbs out of the handicap as well so presumably he will be put back up to at least 55 again!
It didn’t go unnoticed, Tuffers.
The out of the handicap horses I’ve listed that have run awful on this thread must total more than 100, which is why I stopped listing them all!
Yet again, though, it’s completely random without any consistency or logic.
60l = 6lbs
16.5l = 3lbs
73l = 5lbsThe Fielden Stakes and the £250k Sales race.
Are Phil Smith + Co already terrified of what this group of 3yo’s might do if they were given a chance in 3yo+ handicaps come midsummer?
Tattersalls Millions 3yo Trophy (Finishing positions on the left, rating change on the right)
1 Auld Burns +9
3 Questioning +8
4 Namibian +18
6 Chef +18
7 Sadler’s Risk +1
11 Rojo Boy +82 Measuring Time -1
8 Date With Destiny -2
9 Madawi -3
10 Janood -5
13 The Bells O Peover -1
14 State Opera -6This is the BHA handicapping ideology in one super example of a "race."
Whoever came up with this should be sacked.
Take the last two horses.
The Bells O Peover – dropped 1lb for a 24l defeat.
State Opera – dropped 6lbs for a 39l defeat.So publishing a rating for State Opera after one maiden win was a mistake then? Or maybe it has just produced two "off the scale" awful runs?
TIGHT FINISH TO FEILDEN
Wednesday’s listed Blue Square Feilden Stakes at Newmarket attracted its usual smattering of unexposed three-year-olds, with four of the seven having gone into winter quarters on a winning note, writes Greg Pearson. The betting market predicted a tight contest and in a nip-and-tuck three-way finish, Mark Johnston’s Dordogne emerged successful under Frankie Dettori, holding off Happy Today and Moriarty by a head and a short head.
The spread of ratings achieved by the winners of the 1m1f contest this century range from Pawn Broker and Magistretti, who ran to 109 in 2000 and 2003 respectively, to the 100-performance Atlantic Waves put up in 2006. A line through the fourth Specific Gravity’s pre-race rating of 96 looks the best way of approaching this renewal to me, and that produces the figures of 103 for Dordogne and 102 for the pair who chased him home.
The three winners of the Feilden who tried their luck in the Derby since 2000 all failed to finish in the first eight, but last year’s scorer Rumoush did a bit better when fourth in the Oaks. Also, Mark Johnston won the race with subsequent dual-Group 1-winner Campanologist back in 2008 (one of four Johnston winners of the race) so there are some encouraging signs for those Dordogne supporters who follow trends.
I’ll sum it up a bit quicker – like nearly every other year, it’s probably not a good race.
About three years ago the BHA Handicappers offered to provide our ratings free to all racecourses as a service to their customers. Just over 30 of the courses took up the offer (why not all of them?) and they have been well received. There were 13 non handicaps at Aintree over the three days and this is how our top rated horses fared in those races:
Race Horse Rating Position Price
Liverpool Hurdle Big Buck’s 174 1st 4/6
Anniversary Hurdle Zarkandar 151 1st 4/6
Totesport Bowl Denman 177 5th
Foxhunters Baby Run 136 1st 3/1
Manifesto Chase Medermit 155 2nd
Wishfull Thinking 155 1st 9/4
Top Novice Hurdle Topolski 145 1st 11/2
Mildmay Chase Quito De La Roque 152 1st 11/2
Melling Chase Master Minded 172 1st 11/2
Sefton Hurdle Sparky May 148 3rd
Mersey Hurdle Cue Card 154 2nd
Maghull Chase Finian’s Rainbow 157 1st 10/11
Aintree Hurdle Binocular 171 4th
Champion Bumper Montbazon 129 2ndIf you had attended all three days and bought the race card, a £100 level stake on the BHA top rated horse would have brought you a profit of £1850! Imagine that.
That’s from Phil Smith’s handicapping blog this week.
Well done to Phil on helping all punters ensure the levy has no money at all in future – job well done.
Being serious, I would like to see them provide more information. How about printing actual performance ratings from the last 6 runs for each horse?
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