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Rich,
Mr Thriller was never officially rated 150 over fences. I presume you’re quoting the figure from the Post website, but I don’t know where they got it from.
His first chase mark has been published this morning, shown on the BHA website as 144 (new). The new in brackets indicates it’s the first mark he’s been allocated. If he’d been rated 150 before Cheltenham, todays update would have read 144(-6).
On the basis of his run last week, that mark looks fair enough – he finished 11 lengths behind the 155 rated Wishful Thinking at level weights, so any of us could have predicted a mark of 144.
In general terms, when a horse is switched to fences, whatever he does in novice chases, his initial mark won’t be significantly lower than his hurdle mark. I doubt if Mr Thriller would have ever have got a mark below 140, even if he’d been tailed off three times over fences.
AP
Rich,
Mr Thriller was never officially rated 150 over fences. I presume you’re quoting the figure from the Post website, but I don’t know where they got it from.
His first chase mark has been published this morning, shown on the BHA website as 144 (new). The new in brackets indicates it’s the first mark he’s been allocated. If he’d been rated 150 before Cheltenham, todays update would have read 144(-6).
On the basis of his run last week, that mark looks fair enough – he finished 11 lengths behind the 155 rated Wishful Thinking at level weights, so any of us could have predicted a mark of 144.
In general terms, when a horse is switched to fences, whatever he does in novice chases, his initial mark won’t be significantly lower than his hurdle mark. I doubt if Mr Thriller would have ever have got a mark below 140, even if he’d been tailed off three times over fences.
AP
Thanks for clearing that up AP.
The RP have published an OR of 150 for Mr. Thriller within their Jewson race result, this threw me. I guessed – wrongly – that he’d been allocated that mark prior to the race as connections had also entered him for a handicap.
Rich,
It’s certainly possible that Mr Thriller was entered for a handicap at Cheltenham, but because he had only run twice over fences by the qualifying date of Feb 27th, he wouldn’t have been included when the weights were published.
It’s quite likely though that that is where the confusion arose with the mark given by the Post.
Overall I’d be wary of the information on current and past handicap marks on the Post database. There are a number of bugs in their software involving confusion between chase and hurdle marks (ditto turf and AW marks on the flat), and they have also printed handicap marks for horses making their debut over hurdles that applied to their form in bumpers.
This is the best place to go for accurate info – this file is updated every Wednesday:
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/resou … a/ratings/
AP
Rich,
It’s certainly possible that Mr Thriller was entered for a handicap at Cheltenham, but because he had only run twice over fences by the qualifying date of Feb 27th, he wouldn’t have been included when the weights were published.
It’s quite likely though that that is where the confusion arose with the mark given by the Post.
Overall I’d be wary of the information on current and past handicap marks on the Post database. There are a number of bugs in their software involving confusion between chase and hurdle marks (ditto turf and AW marks on the flat), and they have also printed handicap marks for horses making their debut over hurdles that applied to their form in bumpers.
This is the best place to go for accurate info – this file is updated every Wednesday:
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/resou … a/ratings/
AP
Thanks AP,
It’s not the first time the RP site has caught me out.
I’ll definitely use the BHA site in future. Although judging by many of the posts in this thread it will be no more accurate half the time
Cheers Rich
Tuesday’s Highlight
I’m sure avid readers of this thread know I’m a big fan of Paul Dixon. I was delighted to see him collect what is soon to be a sub-tariff first prize with Even Stevens!
Even Stevens won by 9l, and we all know that is not looked upon favourably for any sprint race in Britain. The last win of similar note/style at Southwell was when Dubai Hills won by a huge distance off a mark in the 60’s.
Will Even Stevens feel the full force of the BHA handicappers when the ratings are next updated? Very quick calculations suggest form/yardstick approach could be as high as 100-102. The time seems more than acceptable as well….
Wednesday’s Qualifers (Kempton to come later)
Mister Watzisname
Carys’s LadGood luck to anyone betting on the 4:15 at Hereford today. Each of the 4 horses was beaten more than 20l last time out.
EDIT – Oh, and Imperial Commander has been dropped from 185 to 170, in very similar style to Kauto Star after the King George. It’s not going to matter, but I’m glad Phil Smith could work out what no one else could so accurately.
Hello Jose
Addikt did the business last night I see. I’m sure you’ll have noticed
Landesherr
today at Kempton in the 7.10. Already backed down from double figure prices for his handicap debut off 65 after winning a german turf maiden back in October, never fails to amaze me how clued up our boys are on the depths of the European racing
AP explained how they use a system from the German ratings to get a BHA rating. How accurate it is, I don’t know. It could be said, with Barney Curley being responsible for a fair chunk of German bred imported flat runners, we’ll never know!
And, yes, Addikt won well last night. Keep dropping horses with such awful performances……. and eventually that will happen.
Thursday’s Qualifiers (Kempton to come later)
Leamington Lad
Fighting ChanceAmble Forge ran well last time and could benefit from previous dropping.
Addikt
possibly best describes
the BHA role in all this.
The presenters are sucked
in and marvel at the coup.
Readily available at
12’s midday as if its some
sort of merry japePoor yankee man though
he never bets on a horse
with no diddleedee
and doesn’t understand why
other’s do
and his wife wonders
why he sits there blank
and wont drink his tea.Jose, are you keeping a LSP record of the horses you put up? Would be very interested to see the results.
Jose, are you keeping a LSP record of the horses you put up? Would be very interested to see the results.
Low-grade racing – surely not?!
I’ll update my spreadsheet on Friday to include the last month and then I‘ll post the results on here.
Alternatively, I can just say it won’t be in profit.
Zarkava, you should enjoy this.
Winners 26/453
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to SP
-104.86
If you somehow got the top price on each of the winners you’d be +9.06 up, but that’s, well, impossible to do and further shows this is pointless, which I expected it to be.
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