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Only just come across this thread
An interesting exercise Jose
Very much one that will require a largish sample to reveal anything robustly significant I’d have thought
Keep up the good work
I’m sure it will take a large sample to reveal anything significant, Drone.
The only thing at the moment that will prevent me from being able to do this on a daily basis, and reviewing it weekly, is something like the Solar Flare thing predicted for 2013. Or computer failure.
Ok, all again got "stuffed" today reading through the results. Oh well, I’m about to see if I can find a "winner" for tomorrow with this idea, but this shouldn’t fail too badly otherwise the BHA handicapping team really are wasting their time dropping these horses 5lb for being stuffed miles each time.
No point creating a new post – nothing appears to qualify for tomorrow. One horse came very close.
Friday’s horses.
– 5:05 Haydock – 68-58
Has hardly beat a runner home. I don’t know what Kirkland is serving up. Maybe Haydock’s traditional over-watered, mud-balls with slop. Lordship was 1lb away from qualifying in the same race.
– 8:45 Wolverhampton – 69 (Ireland) – 52
Beaten big distances in its’ last two British runs – well it hasn’t run a decent race since the 12th October 2005 by the looks of things, although it was clearly meant to win at Perth one day. Had a long time off the track, now with a different trainer. You only have to look at the randomness of Jeu De Roseau to see what that can mean.
– 9:15 Wolverhampton – 77-66
9-12f runner in recent times who has taking a big drop in the weights for being beat 31, 10.5, 13 and 15l. Was sent off 9/2 3 runs back off 75……hmmm. Why 66? Can’t work out where that comes from. A progressing "class dropper." Defies belief either way.
Jose,
Strong Vigilance is owned by City dealer Lawrie Inman, so support for him at an Epsom evening meeting attended by many of the same ilk may mean nothing other than more money than sense.
AP
Thanks for that, AP. Non Runner now.
Top morning prices
Supercast 40/1
Bogside Dancer 50/1Week One
Winners 0 from 11
Placed 1 from 11P/L at SP (for all it’s obvious) – 11pts
P/L at Top Morning Odds Posted (for all it is even more obvious) – 11ptsAnd 5 for tomorrow. I will edit and update this post tomorrow morning with other relevant information.
EDIT
Top morning prices in order 14/1, 20/1, 33/1, 28/1, 14/1
– 4:55 Haydock
Jack Dawkins
– 5:30 Haydock
– 3:55 Market Rasen
– 6:35 Wolverhampton
– 8:05 Wolverhampton
Nothing for tomorrow. I was thinking of including Deadly Encounter but – for all that the horse has been losing by around 7-8l over 7 furlongs, and is that a fair distance over 7f – if I include a horse like that, I’m opening it up for anything that loses. If the horse had been beat 10l, 10l and 7l, I think it’s more worthy of tracking.
I don’t know if I’m allowed to continue posting on this thread, but whilst I can, I feel it’s still of some interest.
Qualifiers for tomorrow
GRAND STITCH NR
Other horse of some interest for tomorrow just outside of the idea
EARLSMEDIC
COUNTESS COMETEarlsmedic won. A bit of a shame for the purpose of this task because he was "meant" to win last time imo. Beaten 40, 19, 41, and 11.5l before he was 3rd at Redcar. Won today at 7/2. Dropped 15lb for being beat so far under Phil Smith’s methods he was running in the 30’s or 40’s.
Anyway, I’m now 0 from 13 with this, which is what matters.
Tuesday’s Qualifiers
WELL OILED
BAJAN SUNSHINE
WHATCANYASAYWhatcanyasay seems to have completely thrown the towel in over the last few months. He was capable on his day at a low level but it’s a long time since he recorded any worthwhile form.
Bajan Sunshine did at least show he retains a bit of zest running prominently most of the way. However, I suspect injuries have taken their toll.
Rob
I think you’ll find that this exercise will pick a few winners, Jose, over the next season. The timing of the coup is at least as important as overall form/pedigree.
Club Tahiti
ran a blinder yesterday and I would pay close attention to her next two runs.
Whatcanyasay seems to have completely thrown the towel in over the last few months. He was capable on his day at a low level but it’s a long time since he recorded any worthwhile form.
Bajan Sunshine did at least show he retains a bit of zest running prominently most of the way. However, I suspect injuries have taken their toll.
Rob
Thanks Rob. I expect there are many different and real reasons for these horses completely losing their form. For day to day form specialists these small things might/will be apparent.
For the two horses you’ve listed, I still just can’t work out what good dropping a horse x amount of lbs for being beat 37 or even 118 lengths does? "Unrateable" must exist in the context of a horse, a performance and a race. Clearly not at BHA towers.
I think you’ll find that this exercise will pick a few winners, Jose, over the next season. The timing of the coup is at least as important as overall form/pedigree.
Club Tahiti
ran a blinder yesterday and I would pay close attention to her next two runs.
I hope it will find a few winners.
No, I agree with the point being made. I’m sticking to what I’ve laid out for the purpose of recording immediate winners on the thread. What I could do monthly is record what these horses are doing when they’re off my "loser list."
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