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Here we go again then! This is the time of year I love the most – so much anticipation. It may not FEEL like Spring in the UK but there is no big freeze in Dubai and I thought I would use the impending World Cup night to launch the second season of my thread.
Those of you that followed it last year know that it ended with a very nice profit and I will hope to top that this year. Like last year I will be very selective and will look principally at stakes and maiden races – handicaps and sprints are really not my cup of tea. But it’s not just about money is it? I’ll try and have some fun with it as well. Contributions are of course more than welcome!
Before I get started I should mention the horse that changed my life who will sadly not be part of the fun this year. I spent half an hour this afternoon watching reruns of Frankel’s last few races with my little boy. Watching them again for the first time in a few months made me realise anew what a special, once in a lifetime horse we had the privelige of watching the last three seasons. We will never see his like again but how wonderful to have been around to witness what he did.
But life goes on and racing goes on and a new season brings us new possibilities. Who will be the star of 2013? I know many people think it will be Dawn Approach and they may well be right. Certainly he won’t need to improve too much on what he did last year to be the major player over a mile and 10f this year. His trainer is bullish about him and he is not one to over-hype his horses so there has to be a good chance he will be good enough to rule at least in the first half of the season. But he WILL have to have improved to win the Guineas in my opinion and I think he will be found wanting.
My dear friend TAPK says he has more scope to improve than most of his rivals but I think he must have been smoking something funny when he posted that. DA won the first 2 year old race of 2012 and I really can’t see that he improved from race to tace last year. His Dewhurst win was the definition of workmanlike and I would actually be disappointed if he WAS good enough to win the Guineas. Still money talks and there is plenty of it for him so I’m prepared to eat my words.
As those of you who read TAPK’s thread will know, I am on George Vancouver ew at 25’s and I am pleased to see he is now a top priced 16’s. The race is now his target and as long as it stays dry I think he will go there with a hell of a chance. He has some great form already and is rated 117 after his brilliant win in the Breeders Cup. I much prefer his chances to his two stablemates Cristoforo Columbo and Mars who will surely be better over further.
I have three other speculative ew ante post bets –
Viztoria – I backed her ew at 16’s for the 1,000 Guineas which showed remarkable foresight as months later she is now……………16’s!
Still at least she is being aimed at the race and I think it looks very wide open at the moment as Certify certainly won’t be winning it. Liber Nauticus – ew at 25’s for the Oaks. A once raced maiden winner but seriously impressive all the same and now the fav for the race.
Hot Snap – ew 25’s for the Oaks. Another impressive maiden winner and both parents have been responsible for Oaks winners as she is a half sister to Midday out of Pivotal the sire of Sariska.
Moving to Meydan for this weekend and there are a few that I will have small bets on –
In the UAE Derby I will have a small ew on Aiden’s Lines of Battle at 8’s. He was my pick of the paddock in last years Coventry and I think he will come into his own this year.
Sajjhaa is a mare I have always liked and she is in grand form this year having won three from three. I was suprised to see her at 8’s for the Dubai Duty Free and will have some ew fun.
St Nicholas Abbey ran really well in the Sheema last year and I think a mile and a half on quick ground are just about his perfect conditions. He is 7-2 with Hills and I will back him to win.
Finally in the biggie I will back two. Hunter’s Light has carried all before him so far and I think he will take all the beating in a moderate renewal – I will back him to win at 9-2. Loyalty will also lead me to a small interest on last years winner Monterosso. Forget his last two runs. He is no good on soft ground and needed the outing last time out. On his best form he would go close and so I have backed him ew at 14’s.
So here are the bets so far.
£75 ew George Vancouver 25-1 – 2,000 Guineas
£50 ew Viztoria 16-1 – 1,000 Guineas
£50 ew Liber Nauticus 25-1 – Oaks
£50 ew Hot Snap 25-1 – Oaks
£25 ew Lines of Battle 8-1 – UAE Derby
£25 ew Sajjhaa 8-1 – Dubai Classic
£100 win St Nicholas Abbey 7-2 – Sheema
£100 win Hunter’s Light 9-2 – World Cup
£25 ew Monterosso 14-1 – World CupTotal – £800[/color:2xz23vef]
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Very interesting read Joni, I enjoy Meydan but very rarely bet there as I don’t follow it so will jump aboard your selections, Monterosso looks particularly interesting, good luck with this thread.
I’ve backed Vicksburg from Andrew Baldings yard Ew at 66s for the Oaks, take a look at her maiden run mate and see what you think
Very interesting read Joni, I enjoy Meydan but very rarely bet there as I don’t follow it so will jump aboard your selections, Monterosso looks particularly interesting, good luck with this thread.
I’ve backed Vicksburg from Andrew Baldings yard Ew at 66s for the Oaks, take a look at her maiden run mate and see what you think
A great spot that Gary. Ran a race full of promise didn’t she! Her dam is a sister to Commander in Chief and she will definitely improve for a better surface judging by her action. The 7th and 9th from that race have won since. Might have a little dabble myself mate!
Cheers for the best wishes!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Good to see this back Joni, a very good thread last year with plenty of winners, here’s to more of the same……
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Great to have this thread back Joni
I heard Sir H on 5Live in February and seemingly he had told Cornelius Lysaght to look out for Hot Snap. I see she’s entered in both the 1,000 Guineas and the Oaks.
Have you heard anything about any other Warren Place inmates? I see Frankel’s bro Morpheus has been entered for the 2,000 Guineas and Demonic who run very green in a maiden at Lingfield at the back end is entered in the Derby.
I read our old friend World Domination having left WP is back in training
Thanks BM and Nathan.
Not heard a lot from Warren Place so far but I listened to that same programme in February which was when I backed Hot Snap. Hammy has a contact there who told him to look out for a close relation of Frankel called
Riposte
. A filly by Dansili out of Rainbow Lake who was the dam of Kind. She has "some engine on her" apparently.
I saw Morpheus on his debut and whilst he disappointed on very heavy ground, he certainly looked the part and it has to be encouraging that he got the Guineas entry.
I think the weather has effected everyone and so I have a feeling we may see that the Irish stables are ahead of us at the start of the season. I also think the Godolphin horses will struggle with the extreme change in temperature.
All in all though a season to look forward to and I look forward to sharing all our thoughts over the coming months.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Good to see you back again Joni from your ‘Hibernation’ from the Jumps season.You fell asleep just as
Dawn approach
was rising,you awake as a new Dawn approaches and will light up the Flat season like your
Frankel
did last year.If this
George Vancouver
of yours beats my Chestnut lightning bolt I will treat you to a night at Nottingham races,followed by a trip to ‘Dawn to Dusk’,a popular Casino I frequent followed by a fine Chinese meal at Mr Mans and then finally a trip round ‘Hyson Green’ to relieve ourselves of tension!
Welcome back Joni,
Have you thought about buying a Timeform Racehorses Of 2012? Great read and gets you ready for the season to come.I also think the Godolphin horses will struggle with the extreme change in temperature.
Like Blue Bunting did before 1000 glory, I hear Certify has apparently wintered in Britain.
Look forward to reading your thoughts and tips Joni.
Value Is EverythingGood to see you back again Joni from your ‘Hibernation’ from the Jumps season.You fell asleep just as
Dawn approach
was rising,you awake as a new Dawn approaches and will light up the Flat season like your
Frankel
did last year.If this
George Vancouver
of yours beats my Chestnut lightning bolt I will treat you to a night at Nottingham races,followed by a trip to ‘Dawn to Dusk’,a popular Casino I frequent followed by a fine Chinese meal at Mr Mans and then finally a trip round ‘Hyson Green’ to relieve ourselves of tension!
Hydon Green sounds interesting. Let’s skip the stuff before and head straight there!
Ah. Hang on. It doesn’t mean I have to be your dogging partner does it???
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Welcome back Joni,
Have you thought about buying a Timeform Racehorses Of 2012? Great read and gets you ready for the season to come.I also think the Godolphin horses will struggle with the extreme change in temperature.
Like Blue Bunting did before 1000 glory, I hear Certify has apparently wintered in Britain.
Look forward to reading your thoughts and tips Joni.
Cheers Ginge and Softie.
Ginge – I will try and get down for the Saturday of that first Newbury meeting so maybe see you there? Will get hold of the Timeform book – cheers for the recommendation.
Yes Blue Bunting was the obvious exception – she took EVERYONE by surprise I think. The fact remains though that they have struggled to hit the ground running for several seasons now. I myself was on those two fillies last year. Can’t even remember what they were called now – Discourse and Lyric of Light maybe. Both were unbeaten, both were well fancied, both flopped horribly and were not seen again. I guess my fingers were burned badly enough not to touch again for a while. Good luck with her though and again I would be happy to eat my words!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Monterrosso declared a non runner.
Total £750
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
In the UAE Derby I will have a small ew on Aiden’s
Lines of Battle
at 8’s. He was my pick of the paddock in last years Coventry and I think he will come into his own this year.
£25 ew Lines of Battle 8-1 – UAE Derby –
Off to a flyer! Impressive looking horse and will be a major player in the Kentucky Derby. Bodes well for George Vancouver as well.
Total – £450
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
In the UAE Derby I will have a small ew on Aiden’s
Lines of Battle
at 8’s. He was my pick of the paddock in last years Coventry and I think he will come into his own this year.
£25 ew Lines of Battle 8-1 – UAE Derby –
Off to a flyer! Impressive looking horse and will be a major player in the Kentucky Derby. Bodes well for George Vancouver as well.
Total –
Nice start with Lines Of Battle Joni!
-£450 gives a false impression. Is why I don’t include ante-post bets in totals until they’ve run. Each to his own.
You can give me the paddock pick for the Newbury Spring Cup.
Value Is EverythingIn the UAE Derby I will have a small ew on Aiden’s Lines of Battle
at 8’s. He was my pick of the paddock in last years Coventry and I think he will come into his own this year.£25 ew Lines of Battle 8-1 – UAE Derby –
Off to a flyer! Impressive looking horse and will be a major player in the Kentucky Derby. Bodes well for George Vancouver as well.
Total –
Nice start with Lines Of Battle Joni!
-£450 gives a false impression. Is why I don’t include ante-post bets in totals until they’ve run. Each to his own.
You can give me the paddock pick for the Newbury Spring Cup.
Thanks Ginge. Will take your advice on the running total!
Total – +£250
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Good luck with the thread Joni and a very nice start, fancied Lines Of Battle but didn’t commit financially unfortunately.
Going against St Nic, a horse that’s frustrated me many times including and since the 2010 Guineas, if Gentildonna runs to her Japanese form icluding beating Ofervre she’ll be tough to beat.
Hope your wrong regards Dawn Approach, followed Gord in at 16/1 and am firmly in the camp.
Lets hope for a fantastic season.
PS Well done on Sajjhaa as well!!
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