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Jersey Stakes 2009

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  • #11785
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 29189

    Appologies if there is a thread but could not find one.

    2:30 Jersey

    Infiraad: Very few of Barry Hills horses have been running well recently. So despite Infiraad’s progressive nature have knocked his price down. Races prominently, comes from handicap company but should be capable in this grade. Richard Hills has chosen him over Ouqba.

    Loch Linnhie I have probably over estimated his chance as like B. Hills, J.Gosden is also in poor form (unless you know better). Exceptionally impressive in his only start to date, won with any amount in hand. Very well bred. Could be anything, as they say, and this does not look a good Jersey stakes on paper.

    Awinnersgame comes from a stable in blinding form now, far better than when last seen. Hasn’t had his conditions lately. Been waiting for him running in a strongly run race at 7 furlongs on a sound surface. There looks to be plenty of pace on here. Deposer, Ocean Minstrel, Infiraad, Instalment, Saucy Brown, Jobe; amongst others, all like to be up there.

    Ouqba ran poorly in the 2000, probably outclassed but won the Free Handicap from Awinnersgame. Unlike now, stable in terrific form at that time and had the run of the race (prominent).

    Donatavum is interesting, Dettori may be on the wrong one of Godolphins (Ashram), but if coming back to last season’s form Donatavum has a good chance. Too buzzed up on reappearance.

    Nasri is also (apparently) the second string of Brian Meehan. However, Gallagher is hard to win with and not certain to stay 7 furlongs (sprint bred). Nasri disappointed only two weeks ago, but at that time the stable was in very poor form. Like Delegator, would be no surprise to see him back to form. Still has potential on a sound surface.

    My 100% Book
    <b>Loch Linnhie 5/1</b>, Infiraad 13/2, <b>Awinnergame 15/2</b>, Ouqba 10/1, Donatavum 10/1, <b>Nasri 10/1</b>, Gallagher 11/1, Ashram 14/1, Instalment 20/1, Patrician’s Glory 40/1, Total Gallery 40/1, Ocean Minstrel 66/1, Deposer 66/1, Saucy Brown 66/1, Aranel 200/1, Jobe 400/1.

    Think I may have over estimated Loch Linnhie’s price with Gosden seemingly not in such good form now, like many stables at the top of the market.

    Have backed Loch Linnhie 6/1 and Nasri 17/1, but Awwinnergame at around 16/1 looks exceptional each way value to me.

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #234647
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    I wish someone would Lay me 66/1 about Ocean’s Minstrel, completely under estimated in this field today even at his current price

    #234659
    TheOneAndOnlyTonyMcCoy
    Member
    • Total Posts 202

    Although I backed Ouqba, i was nearly talked out of it. I can never get why papers such ast Racing Post say that the stable jockey always ops for the better horse. In the past it has put me off but im glad i stuck with my selection today. I must say, fairplay to the J Best horse Deposer, he will be winning soon

    #234664
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29189

    I wish someone would Lay me 66/1 about Ocean’s Minstrel, completely under estimated in this field today even at his current price

    66/1 is the price to 100%. No bookie works to 100%, if a bookie’s odds compiler thought something was a true 66/1 shot, he’d offer 40/1.

    Ocean Minstrel was highly inlikely to get the soft lead he’s had to win those races; with so many front runners.

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #234666
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29189

    Although I backed Ouqba, i was nearly talked out of it. I can never get why papers such ast Racing Post say that the stable jockey always ops for the better horse. In the past it has put me off but im glad i stuck with my selection today. I must say, fairplay to the J Best horse Deposer, he will be winning soon

    Well done mate, never let the jockey’s opinion sway you. Am a bit miffed myself, as he was available at bigger than my price to beat (despite the stable form). Yet did not back it. :roll:

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #234671
    TheOneAndOnlyTonyMcCoy
    Member
    • Total Posts 202

    Thanks Mark As you can see, the Cheveley Park 2nd favoured horse has just followed in. I hope you pick a few winners mate

    #234672
    MDeering
    Member
    • Total Posts 1688

    I didn’t want to face another night of terror when Ouqba was off the bit and seemingly struggling at the 3f pole. Was 20 seconds from turning the T.V. off!

    #234706
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    I’m well aware how bookmaking and prices work, Ginge.

    I strongly doubt Oceans Minstrel finishing with 1 behind him was to do with him not be able to lead, he was the first off the bridle and fell back through the field as if something was a miss.

    #234711
    MDeering
    Member
    • Total Posts 1688

    Ashram ran a fine race, aided by the tempo, drop in class and distance among other things.

    That gives me hope Godolphin can produce a winner here, if they get it right.

    #234714
    Ian
    Member
    • Total Posts 1415

    Ashram ran a fine race, aided by the tempo, drop in class and distance among other things.

    That gives me hope Godolphin can produce a winner here, if they get it right.

    Lol. Rather you than me mate. :wink:

    #234715
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    :lol:

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