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It would seem that VDW is a little outdated as a method of selecting horses, although it was at the time of its publication very popular and maybe a little revolutionary.
What methods if any have replaced VDW and brought the selection process into the 21st Century.
Have there been any ‘revolutionary’ postings on the various racing sites over the years which could compare to impact that VDW had?
On a personal note I seem to be going round and round in circles with my selection criteria at the moment and I know that I’m taking too long, an hour mulling over a race is far to long.
thanks for listening
onefurlongout
no matter what people think of vdw he gave ways of narowing the field very quickly which left a short list of horses to look at for considerationOFO,
For me the answer to your question has to be. Have consistent/improving horses stopped winning the valuable races? Is it no longer logical to have a reliable method of assessing a horses ability, and are the best horse still winning the majority of the valuable races? The answer has to no to the first, and yes to the second, they are still coming up with the goods.
Will the answers shown in SIAO bring you success, the answer is still no. There is far more to it than a few simple rules.
If anything has been written that comes anywhere near the importance of the VDW literature I have missed it. There have been some interesting idea voiced, but I have yet to find one that couldn’t be improved by applying some of the basic factors suggested by VDW.
Can these ideas be improved on? Here I think VDW himself explained the ability rating judged by prize money had its flaws, and that can be improved on. He said the competition was the true class of a race, not always the prize.
I agree an hour looking at just one race is far to time consuming. With a little forethought, and organisation, I find even cards like Cheltenham or Royal Ascot can be cut down to a few horse that need to studied in detail in each race in a very short time.
Be Lucky
Hi onefurlongout
the thing about trying different methods…. at least theres chance that we will finally settle on something useful.
I am of the firm opinion that no one person can hope to take on the betting world and make big money. Thats why i am always looking for "cohorts".
Trouble is though….. trust, ego and a blinkered views seem to block any progress.
byefrom
carlisleps always willing to help
carlisle
I have to agree that no one person can take on the betting world, I have been working on it alone for some time now….maybe it’s time for me to look for ‘cohorts’ also.
However the one thing that has stopped me as you quiet rightly point out is not so much the blinkered view or the ego, both of which I can work with or around but it’s the trust, especially if you’ve been working on a project some time to have some pinch your ideas!
Hi whichedge
i am very frustrated because i have a lot knowledge and insight about how to win. It takes effective organisation and discipline to stay on message.
Always trying to keep the progress/profit ratchet moving.As far as the time involved…… this is fairly easy to crack, simply operate a "useful" database and some "worker" computer programmes. I have some experience in this field.
The main problem is to reach agreement on the big (what i call global issues). In a nutshell my approach is as follows.
I believe that horse racing analysis must have a pecking order, certain variables have a greater predictive POWER. The lesser ones are to be use for finetuning the selection process.
1. Going, Distance & Course data are the "governors"
2. This data evidence must to relevent to the prevailing race conditions
3. Class & Speed ratings are the best indicators.a have lots more to say….. but i dont want to talk to myself
i need "cohorts" therefore a mutually beneficial concensus must be given a chance to grow.i feel better now…
byefrom
carlislecarlisle Form and top six betting guide are the number one for me, closely followed by C,D and G
hi mate
First six in the betting is a shortcut approach… i want to bulid a prediction engine that creates probability estimates.
I am interested in the "why" far more than the "what".
byefrom
carlisleThe way to make a profit on betting is simple (not easy).
Do it the way a bookmakers odds compiler would.
1.Gather all the knowledge you can about the race.
2. Work out the horse with the best chance of winning, second best, third…. down to the worst chance.
3. Work out what percentage chance you BELIEVE each horse has got of winning (to 100%).
4. Convert percentages to odds.
5. Back any horse available at a better price than your 100% book. Whether that is the horse you believe has the best chance of winning, third best or worst chance, whether favourite or outsider. Back it.
If you are a good odds compiler you will show a profit.
If you are a poor odds compiler you will show a deicit.Mark
Value Is Everythinghi mate
First six in the betting is a shortcut approach… i want to bulid a prediction engine that creates probability estimates.
I am interested in the "why" far more than the "what".
byefrom
carlisleIn a way this is what my system does but with every price, outsiders and all.
Mark
Value Is EverythingCarlisle, you will have to decide on a method or model type to persue if you want to determine prices correctly. The model you used will depend on what units you measure your horses past performance in.
I would suggest that you explore Bayesian Inferencing models as a starting point.
Alternatively, you could compare one newspapers tissue against another and try and work out how they have adjusted the industry FSP. For example, compare the FSP in the Sporting Life with the FSP in the Racing Post. You might be suprised at what you see.
Just a thought.
Ginger – your approach sounds plausible biut is also fraught with problems –
1. What knowledge do you gather?
2. How do you ‘Work out the horse with the best chance of winning, second best, third…. down to the worst chance.’
3. Do you just stick a finger in the air and take a calculated guess at the price you ‘believe’ is right or is there more science in your approach?4 and 5 are straightforward buit are only any use if 1,2 and 3 are any good.
Ginger – your approach sounds plausible biut is also fraught with problems –
1. What knowledge do you gather?
2. How do you ‘Work out the horse with the best chance of winning, second best, third…. down to the worst chance.’
3. Do you just stick a finger in the air and take a calculated guess at the price you ‘believe’ is right or is there more science in your approach?4 and 5 are straightforward buit are only any use if 1,2 and 3 are any good.
1. Get some good form books. The Timeform Perspective, Chasers And Hurdlers, Racehorses annual, Trainers Statistical Review, Stallion Statistical Review. Use the Racing Post website and newspaper.
2. Fairly simply, after studying form and making a few notes just write down the order of preference they would be for backing if they all were the same price.
3. Use comman sense. Say you considered a seven horse race. If you had the choice of having the best two chances or the other five running for you what would it be?
If you thought the first two but only just, those two may add up to around say 55%. If you think Best has double the chance of 2nd best 1 may have 36.7%, 2 may have 18.3%.
With the other three, 3 you might think has just over three quarters the chance of 2, say 14%, 4 is just a little less at 12.5% (around two thirds of 3), 5 is roughly a quarter of 1 (half of 2) 9%, 6 is half of 4, 6.25%, 7 is a little worse at 5%.1. 36.7%
2. 18.3%
3. 14%
4. 12.5%
5. 9%
6. 6.25%
7. 5%These come to 101.75%.
So you look at them again and ask if any are over rated or under rated.
You change the 4 to 12%, 5 to 8.5%, 1 to 35%, 2 to 18% and 3 (who you think is under rated) to 15%. adds up to 99.75%. You add another 0.25 to 3.Does it now look right if not try again if yes convert to odds.
1. 35% = 15/8
2. 18% = 9/2
3. 15.25% = 11/2
4. 12% = 15/2
5. 8.5% = 11/1
6. 6.25% = 15/1
7. 5% = 20/1You could check again e.g. would you rather have 4 running for you or both 5 and 6? 1 or 2 and 3? 2 or 5, 6 and 7.
You could also check them by adding a bookmakers mark up to all and asking would I back any of them? e.g. 18% + 2% = 20% = 4/1. If yes you need to alter it again.
These are now the prices to beat.
So if you can get better than 15/8 for 1 you’d back that, 15/2 for 4 you’d back that.
Even though you believe 7. has the worst chance of winning of the lot, you should still back it if bigger than 20/1 was available.You may want a margin for error. e.g. for 1 instead of backing it at 2/1 you might back it at 85/40 or more. 2. at 11/2 or more and so on.
It over simplifys things but you see what I mean. After a while it becomes second nature, you dont have to think about it or ask yourself any questions.
Hope this explains things.
Mark
Value Is EverythingHi Gingertipster, davejay
we definitely share similar views about racing & betting. However, i feel the method you outlined is too general. Also…. (in this computer age) unnecessarily bland and time consuming. I have evolved my thinking, about horse racing, to level where i want to be able to isolate definitive "key indicators" and view them within a probabilty perspective. If you put the "squeeze on the data" the value selection will be a no brainer. (easier said than done)
The meeting i have arranged will hopefully produce some new and exciting strategies and analysis methods. Brainstorming and debate will be the order of the day. Initially nothing major will be achieved, but "from small acorns great oaks can grow". (yes i know…. keep the squirrels away from your nuts!)
This meeting is the starting point
I will let you know how get along
byefrom
carlisle"i cannot win on my own…. i need cohorts"
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