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As a betting prospective its Cheltenham because the Ante post market never closes
I want to start backing Paddington now for next years Queen Anne, they will probably open the market after the Lockinge..
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I’m sure the lads will be targeting the 10f races next season if Paddington stays in training. Very frustrating if he goes to stud as god knows what he could achieve if he keeps on improving at the rate he is doing. I think aidan hinted the Sussex was next. Ryan has been raving about the horse since his comeback win. He looked imperious in the st james Palace. He might even end up in the arc if its too soft for Luxembourg.
The omens don’t look good for Paddington staying in training. They’ve never previously kept any of their St James Palace winner’s in training, neither any of their Irish 2,000 Guineas winners.
And with the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas, there have been two unusual exceptions to the rule – George Washington only returned to training ( with sad consequences) due to fertility problems, and Camelot was the other who won despite the trip at Newmarket, and who they were desperate to finish on a high with after the disappointing end to his three year old season, during which they were no doubt confident that he’d be retired as a Triple Crown winner.
“He might even end up in the arc if its too soft for Luxembourg”.
Soft ground puts far more emphasis on stamina though, Mikey. So that would be all against Paddington if he was entered.
No way they’d run him at that trip in such conditions.Value Is Everything“The World’s greatest horse racing festival”
When flat racing people talk about “racing” they’re talking about Flat Racing.
When Jump racing people talk about “racing” they’re talking about Jumps Racing.Royal Ascot is the World’s greatest horse racing festival.
But also:
Cheltenham is the World’s greatest horse racing festival.Value Is EverythingIt’s too diluted and shouldn’t be spoken in the same breath as Cheltenham. Even the big races don’t appear to be as important whereas Cheltenham is like the Olympics and the races are absolutely thrilling.
The atmosphere isn’t on the same level either.Cheltenham is built up to all season long, its talked about virtually every week from November onwards. Bookies go nrnb as early as January. Its a huge meeting and even casuals are now extremely familiar with it.
For me, flat racing is a business and NH is a sport.
Personally, I used to enjoy Goodwood best, but that was because I was a Goodwood member.
Used to enjoy Cheltenham more than Royal Ascot but not now
These days I am equally a jumps and flat fan.
Don’t enjoy either as much as I did because of the dominance by so few trainers.When the new Group 1 races came in for Royal Ascot, I was against them. But tbh they’ve worked pretty well. Commonwealth Cup brings the three year olds into Group 1 sprints more gradually… Which seems to help them when taking on older horses later on in the year. The mile race for older fillies and mares is only Group 2, which helps keep the very best for the Queen Anne.
Haven’t looked into the races myself, but heard somewhere the vast majority of Group 1 events nowadays have just as many runners rated Group 1 class than they ever have. Yes, there’s more competition with more Group 1 options. But there’s also more horses (including top class horses) bred. More horses around rated Group 1 class to fill those races.
Then there’s the fact drainage systems have been improved since the 1970’s as well as watering systems. Both help protect the surface from getting very soft or very firm – conditions that put off connections running. Although we like to criticise when few runners turn up for top class races today, I have racecards from back in the 60’s and 70’s when races were decimated because of the ground and / or fewer top class horses.
When all this is taken into account, we can have more Group races today.
Value Is EverythingFor me, if anything it is Cheltenham that has got more diluted.
All weather – flat racing all year around – and a stronger World market for our flat horses has meant you don’t get as many good horses transferring.
Mares races being so uncompetitive together with the best mares rarely taking on the Champion / Stayers Hurdles, Queen Mum or Gold Cup.
…And a far greater percentage of the top class horses trained by very few trainers and therefore far more likely to avoid each other.Suspect the average favourite’s odds have shortened (the races become less competitive) a good deal more at Cheltenham than they have at Royal Ascot.
Value Is Everything“The atmosphere isn’t on the same level either.”
Sophisticated drunks at Ascot
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“Heard somewhere the vast majority of Group 1 events nowadays have just as many runners rated Group 1 class than they ever have…More horses around rated Group 1 class to fill those races.”
Or could it be argued that ratings are being inflated to ensure there are enough horses for all these extra Group 1s?
For me, Royal Ascot has a quality pattern race at virtually every distance and for every age group you can think of and nowadays a quality handicap at virtually every distance and for every age group you can think of too.
It’s a fixture that has extended its length and number of races by adding yet more quality and competition, rather than diluting existing quality, and the field sizes bear this out.
Can the same really be said of every race at the Cheltenham Festival nowadays?
And how will Cheltenham look when the inevitable fifth day on the Saturday is eventually added?
But IMO they are still both great meetings, ditto the York August meeting.
Much though I think, as a venue, it tops all of them – on the proverbial “Glorious” weather day, at least – Goodwood is the big meeting with the most severe quality dilution issue.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I don’t take much notice of official ratings, CAS.
I believe Tmeform now use time rather than distance back to the next horse; however, ratings have always related to three things:How far a horse has won or lost by.
Weight carried.
Age.OK, race distance, going, pace in the race and racecourse also have some impact.
But nothing has changed, ratings still depend on these things.Ratings / how much each horse is rated below the best of each year always depends on the above.
As I understand it, the number of horses rated Group 1 class nowadays is more than it was in the 60’s and 70’s. Suspect that is largely due to the greater number of horses raced. ie There’s a greater number of horses mid-rated and lesser-rated horses too. Yes, it is possible to argue any particular racehorse is over-rated. However, when the numbers of horses / runners goes up the percentage of them to reach Group 1 class can surely be expected to remain the same. For that percentage to remain the same, the actual number of horses running to Group 1 level increases in relation to the number of runners.
…And if the number of horses reaching Group 1 class is greater, then it also means it can only be expected that this era’s “best of the best” are better than the best of the best in an age that had fewer horses racing.
…And yet Timeform have not had many “great” (140+) racehorses over the years. Indeed, Sea Bird 145 remained Timeform’s highest ever rated horse for 47 years until Frankel’s 147… And of the next seven on the highest rating list only Flightline raced after the early 1970’s.
So if anything I’d say evidence suggests ratings have been kept lower than they should be.
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