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RD
The key point is that nobody is required to bet on any particular event. It’s the choice of the punter where and when he puts his money down. The fact that a large percentage of the betting population isn’t particularly choosy is surely no worse reflection on the betting industry than it is on any other business?
Betting is a negative expectation pursuit, the boookmakers/exchanges books ensure that is the case. However, without wishing to sound too arrogant, I reckon I could spend half an hour with any one of 80% of the betting population and, presuming that they were prepared to listen and act upon the knowledge, then I would expect them to at least lose less. Betting better is no more than applciation of a little common sense, but as in so many fields, greed and impetuousness gets the better of the majority. Some accept this, but others blame everyone but themselves.
My own betting this jumps season has not been as profitable as in previous years. I managed a good profit from Cheltenham, as has been the case for a few seasons, but I was treading water for much of the time. The solution? Stand back, look at my methods and see what is working and what isn’t, and then move forward next season basing my betting on the more profitable areas. But what percentage of the betting population ever takes the chance to do that? Quite a low one I suggest.
Is horse race betting for mugs? No.
Do mugs bet on horse racing? Yes.Rob
How condescending …
So I was a mug for backing a horse 5L clear and running away with one flight to go at 6/1? Had I known I was not actually watching a live broadcast I would have been hesitant, but I was not aware that ‘live’ equals ‘live -10secs’. In-running is betting blind. Even if you have ATR or RUK on the box you are STILL betting blind. I know that now. And being that in-running is the only way to pull a long term profit, I gave the game up as a serious pursuit.
I did well at Cheltenham too, picked some nice winners, but I no longer bet thinking that I am watching a live broadcast no matter how it is labelled. The game also lost it’s charm when it got greedy."And being that in-running is the only way to pull a long term profit"
I think we’ll have to beg to differ on that one RD.
How condescending …
So I was a mug for backing a horse 5L clear and running away with one flight to go at 6/1?RD
My remarks weren’t intended to be condescending, apologies if they read as such. If anything, surely it’s to your credit that you recognised the situation and backed off. You may be many things, but a mug you ain’t!
Have to agree with you about the game losing it’s charm when it got greedy. There’s too much racing, a case of gripping the goose firmly by the throat and trying to squeeze out another golden egg. That being said, I’m choosy over what I watch now but I enjoy what I choose to watch.
Rob
If it answers your question, I’ve only won once betting on football my entire life, where as horses i couldnt even count.
Game lost it’s charm? Game sold it’s soul to the sponsors?
I play the game that never ends every day and days like yesterday, at Newbury, with Frankl, Rimth’s smooth destruction of some nice fillies, the new boy wonder, Mickael Barzalona and potentially best of all, the new "Commander in Chief", World Domination, who looked a Derby winner waiting to happen.
A fantastic card and the very best flat racing has to offer. I can appreciate much of what we have to watch is pretty dire and needs a lot of attention, but at its best, top class racing is difficult to beat for entertainment.
Mugs? It would have been an unlucky punter who lost heavily yesterday.
Nah, if you can keep a close eye on the bookmakers, a beady eye on the claret swiggers who run the sport, and don’t stop complaining when the bad guys have us over the kitchen table, this is the best gambling medium available to a working man.
Just read this entire thread, start to finish. So much to learn in one thread and yet so much garbage thrown in for good measure too.
I am not gonna re-hash quotes or anything but I did chuckle at the general lack of horse racing knowledge that some posters seemed to possess (seeing as this is a racing forum).
Of course its possible to make a profit betting on horses. The fact that their are so many variables within racing is what makes it possible. Personally I have made a return on investment for the past six months approaching 75% – almost exclusively betting each way multiples. I know others on here have had great success backing win singles only (in fact they are probably having a canary reading that I bet in multiples).
The fact is you need to bet in a way that suits your own style and around your own betting bank.
I find I can select many placed horses yet often fewer winners. Today I selected 8 horses – all at greater than 7-2. 4 were placed, 2 won. So I try and bet accordingly (each way Lucky 15’s my A bet, e/w trebles from 4 another.
And my betting bank being limited is a key factor in betting this way. I cant afford to be betting £25 singles – 7 or 8 losers in a sequence and I may well be out of money. Multiples can give rise to large winnings, real bank boosters and so thats how I go about it.
Above all else though, in order to win at racing, you need to understand racing. Key points I look at include:-
Forgive a horse a bad run
Trainer form is a positive
A horses latent ability matters more than a few pounds here or there
Play the long game – note horses now (either mentally or in a notebook) that show real promise and are well touted by sensible trainers. You can find these horses pop up an nice big prices a year or two down the line.There is of course so many factors to consider. I try and watch plenty of racing (no excuse – all races have free replays online now) and generally increase my knowledge of racing and horses. This helps me sense which factors are more/less important in certain races.
And if you dont enjoy doing it – your in the wrong game!
I know there are pros who make a living by betting most, if not every day of the week, but for me, old Che Van Der Weil’s axiom, to bet only in races offering substantial prize-money is a virtually absolute requirement. And that would remain the case if I were a pro. I think networking would be imperative to succeed otherwise.
I’ve known this for decades now, yet it was only the other day that I realised with absolute certainty that I had allowed myself to be seduced by a few occasional good-priced winners, or a few profitable bets on a particular day, into betting on small races; and that with this knowledge, if I continued, then I would be a compulsive gambler. Metaphorically, not an alcoholic, but an excessively heavy drinker. So, one small bet a day is the maximum – two or three such bets a weeek the norm. It means I have a little more for the big races.
PS
I find a horse’s form profile from its first appearance, as given in the RP, to be quite illuminating: going preferences, of course, speed figures, breeding, winning weights, plain win and placing patterns, sometimes a big owner with a smaller trainer, connections’ comments, etc.- Total Posts 17716
I know there are pros who make a living by betting most, if not every day of the week, but for me, old Che Van Der Weil’s axiom, to bet only in races offering substantial prize-money is a virtually absolute requirement. And that would remain the case if I were a pro. I think networking would be imperative to succeed otherwise.
I’ve known this for decades now, yet it was only the other day that I realised with absolute certainty that I had allowed myself to be seduced by a few occasional good-priced winners, or a few profitable bets on a particular day, into betting on small races; and that with this knowledge, if I continued, then I would be a compulsive gambler. Metaphorically, not an alcoholic, but an excessively heavy drinker. So, one small bet a day is the maximum – two or three such bets a weeek the norm. It means I have a little more for the big races.
When the prize money is high, it is infrequent for a trainer to field an out of form horse. Also the jockeys are more careful.
But even in such races, when the horses are young and lightly raced (2-3 yo) you can easily be fooled.
Prize money is a good selection criterion.
If one does n’t want to bet on all races, the worst of all selection criteria is races with the strongest naps. It’s the way to become a jailbird.A sense of adventure is the last thing you need when backing horses, plungers always lose in the long term.
Another thing is the commentators raving at the top of their voice, trying to make the races sound ultra-exciting. There’s no excitement at the races greater than winning, the next is not yet knowing if it won, then …… it’s trying to analyse the race and the finish with a COOL head.
I know there are pros who make a living by betting most, if not every day of the week, but for me, old Che Van Der Weil’s axiom, to bet only in races offering substantial prize-money is a virtually absolute requirement. And that would remain the case if I were a pro. I think networking would be imperative to succeed otherwise.
I’ve known this for decades now, yet it was only the other day that I realised with absolute certainty that I had allowed myself to be seduced by a few occasional good-priced winners, or a few profitable bets on a particular day, into betting on small races; and that with this knowledge, if I continued, then I would be a compulsive gambler. Metaphorically, not an alcoholic, but an excessively heavy drinker. So, one small bet a day is the maximum – two or three such bets a weeek the norm. It means I have a little more for the big races.
When the prize money is high, it is infrequent for a trainer to field an out of form horse. Also the jockeys are more careful.
But even in such races, when the horses are young and lightly raced (2-3 yo) you can easily be fooled.
Prize money is a good selection criterion.
If one does n’t want to bet on all races, the worst of all selection criteria is races with the strongest naps. It’s the way to become a jailbird.Oh, yes. Nobody wins all the time. But as for your last comment, there’s never been any danger of my betting on the hottest nap, because it’s been heavily napped, small race or big race, since my first week in the game, 50 years ago!
My occasional small-race bets will be at least 3/1, but are just as likely to be 25s or 33, because I don’t expect to win, particularly to small stakes. In the medium to long term, I hope, but that’s all. It’s like an emetic or a laxative – at best keeping up a peripheral interest.
I lose between 200-500 a year on horse racing but I bet for fun. I love the sport and so to me that’s a relatively cheap hobby. I tend to focus on better racing and have made money in some years but it averages out to a loss.
Poker is where I make money though – That’s been an average of 1,500 pound profit per year for the last couple of years. I tend to play that a lot less though cos after a few months of serious playing I always need some time off. It gets a bit much otherwise.
I firmly believe though that with diligence, the correct staking strategy and an edge or form specialism it is more than possible to make money from it. The risk/time/reward combination doesn’t make it worthwhile though….
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