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Tomorrow’s renewal at the Curragh should be a good race?
Can Peeping Fawn reverse Epsom form with Light Shift, or maybe one of the other fillies will burst both their bubbles?
Any thoughts?
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Tomorrow’s renewal at the Curragh should be a good race?
Can Peeping Fawn reverse Epsom form with Light Shift, or maybe one of the other fillies will burst both their bubbles?
Any thoughts?
I think Light Shift will confirm form. The ground won’t inconvenience her too much. It was the soft side of good at Epsom and she’s by Kingmambo who acted on soft, as do his progeny.
The big danger will not be Peeping Fawn in my opinion. I’ll say at a best priced 7/1, All My Loving represents the main threat. She’s entered in the St Leger and has good stamina in her pedigree which will come in useful on this heavy going. She, like Light Shift, won’t be inconvenienced by the ground (by Sadler’s Wells) and I think she’ll push the Oaks winner all the way.
Agree with the above, if I were to have a bet it would be All My Loving.
But I am getting sick of saying this week, but once again it’s a race not to get too much involved in financially in my opinion, because of the ground conditions. Though if you think something will definitely act on it then it might make you more confident.
The Curragh is unraceable today, meaning even after a dry day and night it will still be heavy tomorrow. I have seen so many crap results lately, simply because of the going. You have to remember, heavy going is completely different to soft, so even if a horse has form on soft or it’s pedigree has form on soft, it doesn’t mean it will act on heavy. Heavy ground blunts speed, it is stamina sapping and is the perfect recipe for freak results.
Mike
Obviously the ground at The Curragh tomorrow will have its say, but I think Peeping Fawn can avenge her Epsom defeat , mainly because of the ground.
I don’t know what Light Shift’s pedigree indicates – nor do I really care – but she has looked a filly with a few gears and will be better suited by decent ground, imho. I don’t think she’ll relish a slog in the mud.
Peeping Fawn ran well on the soft at the Curragh last time when beating Speciosa – another one not inconvienced by the soft . I can see her (PF) handling the ground better than most.
The heavy should help All My Loving – who looked just plain slow to me at Ascot – but I don’t believe she has the class to beat her stablemate, no matter how bad the ground is.
I’ve tried to find a shock result from the remainder on account of the ground but can’t find one.
So it’s Peeping Fawn , but steaming in at short prices on heavy ground isn’t my bag.
I did fancy Light Shift to confirm the form, and although Henry Cecil considers his filly to be in great form, he also thinks that by running her on heavy ground, she will encountering "no man’s land" – so then maybe from a punting point – discretion really should be the better part of valour.
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All My Loving was done for speed in the Epsom Oaks, even more so in the Ribblesdale and, with the ground to slow the others down, should win this.
The heavy going makes punting a perilous exercise at any meeting.
Unless you know that a horse acts on this type of ground, don’t bet.The ground at Epsom was very soft for the Oaks, but very soft is not heavy.
Stamina comes into play for any horse on this type of ground and can(as mentioned in previous posts) produce very strange results.
Light Shift and Peeping Dawn are both high class fillies and it is hard to split them on Oaks form, so if I was forced into a bet I would take Light Shift at the better price.
she’s by Kingmambo who acted on soft, as do his progeny.
Kingmambo’s progeny have a poorish strike-rate on good to soft and softer compared to on all goings. They have won less than 3/4 (a factor of 0.71 to be precise) of the races you would expect from their overall win record from 2001-2007 inclusive.
Peeping Fawn touching 11/4 on the exchange… ‘Big’ firms Hills and Coral going 11/8!
What price now with Fallon not riding?
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she’s by Kingmambo who acted on soft, as do his progeny.
Kingmambo’s progeny have a poorish strike-rate on good to soft and softer compared to on all goings. They have won less than 3/4 (a factor of 0.71 to be precise) of the races you would expect from their overall win record from 2001-2007 inclusive.
Great statistics. I didn’t say that his progeny preferred soft, I said they ‘acted’ on soft. He has sired horses like Divine Proportions and Detroit City who seem to love the mud, compared to fillies like Russian Rhythm who were strictly firm ground horses.
Just watched Irish Oaks – Peeping Fawn was impressive. Will be interesting to see her and Light Shift go at it again on ‘better’ ground. The ever consistent Alll My Loving ran admirably in third to the delight of a few ew punters judging by her price. Has to be placed in the Leger.
Alll My Loving ran admirably in third to the delight of a few ew punters judging by her price. Has to be placed in the Leger.
She’s a very good filly but just lacks that little bit of class at the top level.
If she runs in the Leger realisticly she’ll be, as you say, running for place money only. If , however, Aidan wants her to get back on the winning trail I believe Doncaster’s Park Hill is tailor-made for her. She will take some beating in that sort of race, especially if the ground has a bit of give in it.
Alll My Loving ran admirably in third to the delight of a few ew punters judging by her price. Has to be placed in the Leger.
She’s a very good filly but just lacks that little bit of class at the top level.
If she runs in the Leger realisticly she’ll be, as you say, running for place money only. If , however, Aidan wants her to get back on the winning trail I believe Doncaster’s Park Hill is tailor-made for her. She will take some beating in that sort of race, especially if the ground has a bit of give in it.
I understand that she holds an entry in both the English and Irish Legers. Also, the Irish Champion and Yorkshire Oaks.
It’s unlikely she’ll go the Park Hill route with those kind of entries but Rising Cross won the race last year after being placed in both Oaks so it would seem a decent alternative.
Aiden O’Brien has an embarrassment of riches for this race – it wouldn’t surprise me to see him have 5 or 6 runners in the race! We’ll probably know more after York’s Ebor Festival in August.
Was at The Curragh today and I just can’t get over Peeping Fawn’s improvement since the first time I saw her in a Curragh maiden last April. She finished 3rd that day behind Athenian Way and Regalline. Both these have failed to register a win since. The performance she put in at Epsom only 5 days after her Irish 1000 guineas was superb and really made me sit up and take note. Her display in The Pretty Polly stakes was one of the highlights of Derby weekend. Then today,only 3 months on from that maiden I’ve mentioned, well how do you descibe that? Exceptional, I’d suggest. Reported to be showing signs of coming into season by her trainer she still manages to destroy a decent field. Alot of kudos must also go to the runner up. Having watched the replay on the big screen numerous times, I’m of the opinion that Light Shift was really feeling the ground at the furlong pole but she stuck on creditably and kept the 2L gap between her and All My Loving when, at one stage, it appeared she may be passed and finish 3rd.
Great card today. Was delighted to see Ado McGuinness win the big handicap. I was involved in a sindicate over the last few years and we had our horse with him. The man is a very nice bloke and how he got a win from our beast I’ll never know. Unfortunately he’s injured and won’t run again, the horse that is. All in all I had a great time and that’s all that matters, even managed to walk away with a very small profit for a change.
Amazing filly,one of the toughest top class fillies iv seen for many years,to have taken the racing she has and yet she keeps on improving she is an exceptional filly.Look how many horses in her situation would of cried enough by now,and yet peeping fawn is on her 8th race.Its easy to her going through the rest of season unbeaten.
I would predict newyork, we may not see her for a few months. Assuming she does come into season and if it ever stops raining over here, letting the ground firm up some what, her connections will surely use the opportunity to give her a break. Prix de l’Opera could be hers for the taking.
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