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Any thoughts? Race has crept up on me. Having spent all winter looking at the National and being more confused now than ever I thought I’d give the Oirish one a glance and have come up with Le Reve,Gallant Oscar, My Murphy [can’t desert him now] and Usuel Smurfer [if he gets in; he’s either a plot horse or complete rubbish].
I have been looking at Buddy Bolero for the Irish National Moe.
He only caught my eye at Cheltenham because we have a Guinea Pig called Buddy.
I had a look at his form prior to his run in The Kim Muir at the festival and thought about an each-way bet but decided to leave it alone.
He reeled off a hat-trick of wins earlier in his career but presumably had a setback in between, as there was a big gap between two of those races. A bit in and out since then, he ran a stinker at Haydock a month before Cheltenham but acquitted himself well in third place behind the good winner The Package in the Kim Muir.
Previously 4th in the 4 miler at Cheltenham, he ran a staying on race this year and he seems to have done all his winning on heavy ground. Given soft ground in The Irish National, his decent effort at this year’s Festival would make him interesting off a feasible looking handicap mark for his trainer Tony Martin.
He is also entered at Aintree but I reckon that might be a bit hot company for him. He’s a reasonably interesting contender at 20/1 if the ground comes in his favour.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I love guinea pigs; my grandson wants a rabbit but we keep trying to persuade him to have a guinea pig instead. When my last guinea pig went to guinea pig heaven I spent years going into pet shops to buy dog food and having to tell the shop assistants to not let me, on any account leave with a guinea pig. Usuel Smurfer interests me because he’s won at Fairyhouse and won in the spring; has won races going left handed although he seems to jump to the right. And the trainer, after he won at Fairyhouse last year, has been running him in hurdle races.
Moe, Usuel Smurfer made my shortlist definitely. I was lucky enough to be on him when he won at Leapordstown, and he repaid the cash I lost on him earlier in the season………I’d bet him in The Kerry, and Munster Nationals, and I thought he was definitely going to be a horse to follow this season.
I’ll probably not be betting My Murphy, even though as you know, I’m a big fan of him too. Going by the Grand National market on Betfair last night, I think Gallant Oscar looks to be heading for The Grand National. He was hammered on Betfair last night, more than halving in odds, and he’s very blue on Oddschecker as well.
Steve, Buddy Bolero was taken out of The Grand National on Tuesday, and he looks all systems go for Fairyhouse…………the guinea pig angle, surely only adds to his chances he looks nailed on with an omen like that.
I’m halfway through a write up on the race, but I’ll probably hold off now until the declaration stage on Wednesday.
I’ve got a very long shortlist at the moment………..
If In Doubt
Alderwood
Seefood
The Job Is Right
Los Amigos
Rule The World
Pendra
Usuel Smurfer
Mullaghanoe River
Vic’s CanvasI really need a few of them to disappear at that Declaration Stage.
I was looking at Los Amigos as well but discounted him [can’t remember why though!].And the Skelton horse, who probably won’t get in and isn’t good enough but Skelton knows how to ride a Irish National winner.
Cheers Bobby, Our other Guinea Pig is called Herbie so I’ll be keeping an eye open for a mug’s double.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My shortlist is a subset if yours VTC: Lots Of Memories, Mullaghanoe River and The Job Is Right.
Mullaghanoe River would have went close last year THM, if he hadn’t came down…….I get the impression he’s been kept back for a repeat bid, if he lines up, he’s got a chance, but his jumping remains a serious concern.
If the ground comes up heavy, I would be happy to risk a few quid on Goonyella. He does things at his own pace, but is a relentless grinder, which was evident in his recent win in The Midlands National at Uttoxeter.
He ran in this last year and whilst he ran well, his lack of a further gear meant he kept on for a decent 7th. That was on ground that was good to yeilding, so it wasn’t a bad effort for a horse which really needs it heavy or preferably bottomless. The present going is soft, with rain forecast for Wednesday and Thursday and a dry weekend. If enough rain gets into the ground to make it heavy, the 33/1 presently on offer with PP would make a good deal of appeal, even truly soft ground wouldn’t be too bad. If the rain doesn’t get into the ground and with any “good” appearing in the going description, a similar result to last year would be likely. There is also the chance that if the going were to be genuinely “good”, he could well be pulled out
The question is whether to hope for plenty rain and take the 33/1 now, or wait until the weekend and give him a miss if it’s good to soft or better. If the rain comes, I think you would be lucky to get half those odds come Monday. Rather than miss the chance, I’m having a few quid on him and praying the heavens open.
I’ve gone in on Lots Of Memories at 16/1, and have made him my number one fancy.
I’m looking at his handicap mark of 138 and thinking he’s a much better horse than that. His form at the back end of last season at the spring festivals was exceptional, firstly routing a handicap hurdle field off 128 at Fairyhouse then running a fine third behind Beat That and Don Poli at Punchestown.
There’s plenty to like about his chase form too. He was third behind Don Poli and Apache Stronghold at Leopardstown at Christmas, and ahead of decent horses in Mala Beach, The Tullow Tank and Shanahans Turn. He then finished a slightly disappointing 13 L third to Wounded Warrior (15 lb swing with that horse here) at Naas, before a staying on fourth behind Fine Rightly over 2m 4f at the same track.
Another factor to consider is his form at this time of year: two wins and a place (in a G1) from three runs in April. It’s possible this is because he’s getting slightly better ground. The ground is currently described as soft at Fairyhouse and I’d be hoping that will be a better soft than the ground he was encountering in December and January. He’s never won on heavy and the only time he’s won in Dec/Jan was on yielding to soft. There’s rain forecast for the coming days but the forecast is giving it dry over the weekend so it should be fine for him.
He’s crying out for this sort of test imo and as a classy novice he’s the sort of horse I like to back in handicaps this time of year.
I thought I’d found a little gem of a horse in Embracing Change only to realise he’s second favourite [damn]. He’s won over C/D in a really good time. If he gets in with, hopefully, a claimer on board I have to back him. Probably with Le Reve [one of my favourite horses at the moment] Usuel Smurfer and My Murphy [who I can’t desert]. Hope Gallant Oscar doesn’t run cause it’s hard to miss him out also.
Buddy Bolero isn’t in this now, so there’s no way I’ll bother with a bet on this race. It’s never been my lucky race anyway and without the Guinea Pig angle it’s just another race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m a bit gutted Jim Dreaper decided not to give Goonyella a run in this one. I know he had said he would have run in the National given the chance, but I didn’t think he would get in and if, as I’d hoped, the ground were to come up heavy or at the very least soft at Fairyhouse, then given that he put in a reasonable performance last year I thought it would be the right choice. Just shows what I know
It’s all the worse as the ground has come right for him, and if he doesn’t get in the National, that leaves him with a crack at the Scottish version, which will almost certainly be run on unfavourably good ground. I thought I had stolen a march on the bookies with the 33/1 at PP, when the highest anywhere else was 16/1. It appears Paddy has got his ear closer to the Dreaper camp than I ever could. I haven’t even had a look to make a replacement….I’m in a huff
I like the look of She’s Got Grit. Course winner with a low weight and has won on the going. That’ll do for me @ 33/1
My three against the field are Lots Of Memories, The Job Is Right and Thunder And Roses. Fingers crossed.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Rule the world, has lots of class and is well handicapped in comparison to his hurdles rating,trainer’s always spoke of him as a chaser and is well able to get them ready and young Mullins is a free 5lb off his back because he’s a talented kid. His run behind Adriana des mottes in November losing a short head giving her 20lb reads quite well now too and gound shouldn’t hold any worries.
Dogora’s my other choice,quite simply because i think he has one of these in him and he ran well in the cross country at the festival to get him spot on.
Thankfully my original list got whittled down a fair bit, not that it makes it that much easier.
The 125’s for Alderwood is insane. He’s clearly got a big staying Chase in him, and his campaigning towards something like this has been pretty transparent.
Rule The World would have been the best of these, but for injury, and he’s massive at 25’s.
I’ve also went with Vic’s Canvas each way @ 16’s. A horse I’ve been watching closely all season, and fairly interesting sort, for all he’s been kicking about long enough.
Very difficult to desert Lots of Memories, who I thought would end up my #1, though I’m sure THM will be glad I aint jinxing him. A serious player in this, for all the reasons outlined by THM. Usuel Smurfer got me a nice return over hurdles at Leapordstown, but he also cost me in The Kerry National. He’s also disappointed last time, and though very difficult not to give him another chance, he’s very reluctantly passed over. Los Amigos is a model of consistency, and turning for home, it’s difficult to envisage him not being there in the firing line.
Alderwood 125’s ew 5 places
Rule The World 25’s ew 6 places
Vic’s Canvas 16’sGL
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