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Cracksman 5/2.
With Cliffs of Moher an unlikely runner, I can see Gosden’s colt going off shorter on the day. The Curragh will suit his style much better than Epsom and he proved that he can stay 12f no problem. Waldgeist and Derby hero Wings of Eagles represent the biggest dangers.
Waldgeist @ 4/1 to win this. I was hoping for a bigger price but judging by the contraction in his price for the Arc since yesterday it looks like the bookies have been pre-warned. Straight after his G1 win last year Fabre entered him in the race saying this would be the race for him.
He had the Derby winner, Douglas and Capri well beat in that race.
The step up in trip and course will be perfect for him. If it rains even better. Straight after yesterdays race i had this in mind for him and really think he would of gone close to winning the Derby if he ran.
Yesterday’s run was a big step from his first run this year and hopefully he takes this before going on to even better things. Very confident bet for me and hope his price holds up till NRNB comes in.
Had final bet @ 7/2 , i hope.
It was one or the other for me Botchy, but of the two he (Cracksman) looks more likely to run, with the Grand Prix de Paris an option for Waldgeist if it doesn’t rain. The long range forecast predicts a lot of rain in the days prior to the race so I could be wrong.
EDIT: It appears I’ve confused Martyn Meade’s comments with Fabre’s. Meade listed the Grand Prix as an option for Eminent, whilst Fabre has indeed listed the Curragh as Waldgeist’s most likely target.
It was one or the other for me Botchy, but of the two he (Cracksman) looks more likely to run, with the Grand Prix de Paris an option for Waldgeist if it doesn’t rain. The long range forecast predicts a lot of rain in the days prior to the race so I could be wrong.
EDIT: It appears I’ve confused Martyn Meade’s comments with Fabre’s. Meade listed the Grand Prix as an option for Eminent, whilst Fabre has indeed listed the Curragh as Waldgeist’s most likely target.
Phew, you nearly gave me a heart attack there Voleur.
I must admit though, i loathe backing horses at that kind of price Ante Post. If he never ran in France i could of been looking at a 16/1+ shot for this, which would be a lot more appealing.
Good luck with Cracksman also
Best of luck guys. I’ll post it in here once I see a firm go NRNB, it’s the kind of race where no runner looks 100% guaranteed to line up.
WALDGEIST 4/1 my bet here think extra 2f be up his street think if there cut in ground suit him even more to.And this been long term target
With Dettori out until the July Meeting at the earliest, the ride on Cracksman (and likely favourite) is up for grabs. Depending on what Godolphin send to compete, I’d imagine William Buick would be the most likely to pick up the mount.
In terms of who’ll win. I feel that 5/2 for The Derby winner to convert in his own back garden is too generous. There will surely be plenty of pace put on by the stablemates and there’s every reason to believe that there’s more to come from this colt.
Wings Of Eagles 5/2
Hard to see why the form of the Derby should be reversed. I just hope Douglas mcarthur gets to run on its merits. If ground was on the soft side then capri would appeal.
WALDGEIST 4/1 my bet here think extra 2f be up his street think if there cut in ground suit him even more to.And this been long term target
I agree think the Fabre raider going to be tough to beat here. I like the angle of him stepping up in distance as it looked like he was just speeded out of it by a quicker horse last time. I don’t like wings of eagles I think history will prove that his derby win was something of a fluke, and cracksman it seemed to me didn’t quite get home last time
I’m with Mickey on this one. I think if it comes up soft, and a fair
amount of rain is forecast between now Saturday, then CAPRI would
be a strong contender. I fancied him a bit for the Derby, and he ran a good
race, but he couldn’t quicken right at the death. He needs to get his toe in,
and he will hopefully get his ground on Saturday. I think at worst he’ll be in
the first 3. 12/1 isn’t a bad bet.Having watched and reviewed this year’s Derby quite a few times since its running , I am now totally convinced that the best horse won the race and will take all the beating in this Saturday’s Irish Derby .
Wings Of Eagles came from a long way behind after being bumped and forced to weave his way into a position where he could unleash his challenge . He finished very strongly in a true run race and looked every inch a class mile and a half Group 1 horse .
If anything , he appeared not to have handled the Epsom undulations and camber; yet in the end , he won with authority in spite of that .
Hopefully , there is a good gallop set from the off , and thereby I can only envisage another victory for Wings Of Eagles .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I am not inspired by this race. I don’t see any value at all in Wings Of Eagles at 9/4 and Waldgeist at 5/2.
Cracksman at 10/3 is almost backable but he’s not quite crying out as having been as progressive as I originally felt he might be. He beat Permian narrowly and whilst that horse won the Dante and followed up at Royal Ascot, there was a strange look to Cracksman in the Derby, in that he never really travelled that well.
It was a fierce pace in Derby and Wings Of Eagles simply seemed to see it out best. Cliffs Of Moher had looked likely to win but in the end he only had a neck to spare on Cracksman, which if you wind the tape back a bit, had looked unlikely.
I wish race reports were better written for those who hadn’t seen the race. If you look at the report for Eminent in the Derby it reads:-
Held up in mid-division, 12th straight, headway on outside 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, not quite pace to challenge
Anyone who watched the race can tell you that the above version of what took place is bollocks of the lowest order. It makes it sound like Eminent needed further, when the opposite is true. He is a Craven winner in a fast time, how can he lack the pace? When the two horses are making their runs, Eminent is four or five lengths in front of Wings Of Eagles, how the Hell did he manage that if he hadn’t got the pace to challenge? We know that Aidan felt Cliffs Of Moher didn’t stay and how can it be explained that Eminent was dropping further behind that horse in the closing stages if he was “Staying on”?
We now know that Martyn Meade didn’t feel Eminent stayed either and the visual evidence suggested that this was the case. The horse was in a good enough position but in the closing stages he clearly loses ground relative to Cracksman and Cliffs Of Moher.
The crappy race report writing aside, looking back at the Derby I briefly thought Cracksman was going to run down Douglas MacArthur and win the race. For some reason he didn’t quite kick as well as he needed to and it became clear Cliffs Of Moher was going to claim him. Looking back at Cracksmans gait in the closing stages it looks hard work for him, he is not stretching and it’s more of a paddling action he has. Maybe he too was tiring slightly.
If we look at the field for the Irish Derby, only two horses have actually won at the trip. Wings Of Eagles and Jessie Harrington’s Grandee, a 33/1 shot with a lot to find. You would assume Capri is a shoo in but he may have too much stamina. Waldgeist may go off favourite at the current progression of the odds but he has not won at a mile and half yet. You would think it’s a formality for a horse who got 10F on soft at 2YO but he looked as if he was happier on the less demanding surface of the French Derby than in the trial race, the Prix Greffulhe, when Recoletos mowed him down fairly readily.
The French Derby looks a bit plain when you look behind the third on the day, Recoletos. Taj Mahal can’t seem to find the back of the net at all and Rivet has been one of the biggest flops of the season, looking like an unintentional pacemaker in all his races.
This looks a tricky one to call for me. Aidan will no doubt have a couple out there gunning to set it up for a late surge and Wings Of Eagles may outstay them again. I have seen that type of horse before though, and sometimes it just doesn’t quite pan out again, even if you repeat the tactics. He’s not really a turn of foot horse and at one stage in the Derby it looked highly unlikely he would catch them. At least two of the three in behind him didn’t get home and perhaps the petrol gauge on Cracksman also hit the big letter E.
I feel there is better value this weekend but good luck to all those playing here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I agree that this race has deteriorated since the French Derby was discontinued in 2005 and the increased prestige of the Grand Prix de Paris. I don’t buy into the rose-tinted glasses look from recent media reporters that this renewal bodes well for the future but this year’s race is clearly as good as could have been asked for and I’m looking forward to it.
Waldgeist was perhaps unlucky in Prix De Jockey Club, having to wait briefly for run in what wasn’t the truest run race. Fact he’s by Galileo from a middle distance/staying female line and won a 1m2f Group 1 as a two year old, on probably similar ground to today’s… means chances are he’ll improve at this trip.
Wings Of Eagles won fair and square at Epsom how the race was run. But I wonder if meeting trouble actually helped; delayed his challenge in what was a strongly (perhaps too strongly) run race. That said, he’s improving and should run well again. Possible he’s est suited by a firm surface too; only disappointing run in the Criteriun De Saint Cloud (behind Waldgeist) on softest he’s encountered. Although could’ve been just over the top for the season.
Cracksman didn’t seem to handle the track – on and off the bridle – that was after all only his third race. Half the number of Wings Of Eagles. Although is yet to race on a soft surface the action shown at Epsom suggests it won’t inconvenience him and may even improve for it. Cracksman raced more prominently than the other Derby principles and as a result may be better than result suggests.
One I backed ante-post for Epsom was Capri, who was only 3 3/4 lengths behind the winner despite making ground up when the pace was probably at its fastest and coming wide around Tattenham corner. Proven on a soft surface and likely to be closer to the big three here in what seems certain to be another test of stamina at the trip.
Douglas Macarthur did well at Epsom considering seemed to be the sacrificial lamb, setting a pace that had no chance of maintaining. Could do better here if allowed, but is he the pacemaker again? At a guess, Taj Mahal and The Anvil look likely to play the hares this time. However, Douglas had a hard race and might take him longer to recover than other Derby runners. The other runners Grandee and Dubai Sand don’t look up to this grade.
If someone asked me which horse has the best chance of winning? I couldn’t split the top three. That means I’ve got to go for the biggest priced of them; Cracksman @ around 3/1. Also think Capri is over-priced @ double figure odds.
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