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Hotazhell is quite a compact horse, and perhaps everything else has trained on past him, but maybe a little ease in the ground this weekend will help. He got too far back at Saratoga and had no chance but might do better here.
33s ew is a nice price.Chris Hayes to win his first Irish Champion Stakes on the son of Awtaad, who he rode to classic glory back in the day. Thoroughly likeable hoss, group 1 consistent, turn of foot on softer ground can be key.
ANMAAT 4/1
Whether Anmaat will keep his form now, not far off his 8th birthday, we will have to see as no horse older than 6 has ever won this.
It’s a trend of sorts I suppose, although participation in the history of this race from any horse over the age of six is basically non-existent.
Cirrus Des Aigles ran as a 9 year old and came into the race in no form and Lord Admiral ran twice at 7 and 8 when basically a no-hoper.“Whether Anmaat will keep his form now, not far off his 8th birthday, we will have to see as no horse older than 6 has ever won this.”
They rarely try though. Cirrus des Aigles was the most recent horse aged 7+ to run in it, ten years ago.
Delacroix should win- having over half a stone in hand on ORs- but listen, he’s a Beautiful Mover as befits a Very Important horse at stud, so listen, if he loses it’ll be the ground that’s too soft and not good enough and Definitely Not the horse that’s too soft and not good enough, and listen, even if he loses there’s a penalty kick to be had in the breeder’s cup turf, unless Ombudsman turns up in which case a setback will pack him off to stud (or the Tatts Gold Cup 2026 if he needs to shove another 10f G1 on his UCAS form).
Had the ground not gone against him, I would have opted for Shin Emperor but the ground has certainly now come in Anmaat’s favour (even though his Royal Ascot 2nd to Ombudsman was on fast ground) and he will also be a fresher horse with this being just his third run of the season (his first since June) compared to Delacroix who will be having his 6th start of the season.
Not for the first time I remain to be convinced that an O’Brien horse is as good as he talks them up to be (I feel Ombudsman would have beaten him in the Eclipse as well if they had held onto him for longer). Given Ballydoyle have a pacemaker entered too, you would assume that they will sit 2nd with Delacroix and kick off the home turn and hope they can get first run on the closers.
White Birch (who also gets his preferred ground conditions) I think would be suited by a strong end to end gallop as he tends to find trouble in running in small field tactical races but he is too short based on his two defeats to Los Angeles this season but I could see him getting placed.
“Not much rain forecast for today.”
Good to yielding, yielding in places so no excuses for anybody
Anmaat maybe an older horse and there will obviously come a time when he’s on the downgrade, however there’s been no evidence of that yet. Proved effective on any going, when second to Ombudsman last time out – as good as his Champion victory… Also lightly raced for an older horse and lightly raced older horses tend to keep their form for longer. Ascot will be his number 1 target but I expect him to run his race.
Delacroix should imo have been closer to Ombudsman at York – given too much to do. Ombudsman below his best when chasing home Delacroix at Sandown (probably due to only 17 days break from a hard race at Ascot). On Ombudsman form there isn’t much between Delacroix and Anmaat. The Irish horse has home advantage this time and the way he’s got a bit over himself in the prelims – might do better or be more consistent at home. That said, although O’Brien isn’t in “bad form”, is currently in less good form than he usually is… Which might be one reason for both Delacroix and Scandanavia drifting this morning. Whereas Burrows is in pretty good form. I’d have Delacroix as only a fractional favourite.
White Birch’s best form is imo better than these, although he is less consistent. Hasn’t run for a while but often runs well fresh. Important things for him are ground and pace. Needs Good or softer and held up and probably best in a truly run race. May well have beaten Los Angeles with a clear run through. Deserves to be closer to his two main rivals. I’ve been waiting some time for White Birch to have a race that might suit. Just hope Coolmore don’t play silly buggers with the pace.
White Birch main bet, saver on Delacroix.
Value Is EverythingHad hoped to do a Delacroix / Al Riffa “Proper Racehorse” Weekend Double but I’m afraid yesterday’s heavy showers and inevitable Leopardstown holding ground means I couldn’t back Delacroix with any real degree of confidence. Kind of surprised he’s running at all after his lacklustre showing on that NH good ground on Derby day. If he does win it will be that Dancing Brave in him that gets his home. One to watch for me sadly.
Although the Eclipse on good-firm ground is currently Delacroix’s best performance, I can’t believe he isn’t equally effective on good-soft if not softer. Given both his previous form and – just as importantly – his roundish action. There were more likely reasons for his poor showing at Epsom.
Value Is EverythingI had the chance to back Delacroix at 3/1 WIN only and I’m quite happy about that. Anmaat and Zahrann don’t strike as potential Irish Champion Stakes winners. It takes a bit more than their form to win this race. The Japanese horse is drawn quite poorly and might be late again getting out. White Birch has had too many training issues over the past two years and Hotazhell’s top price at 33/1 is no longer available. That’s why I have to stick with the Lads.
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