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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

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Viewing 17 posts - 103 through 119 (of 209 total)
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  • #225299
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34707

    You can work out statistically the percentage chance of

    any

    favourite winning by dividing the number of winning favourites by the total number of races run eg if there are 100 races and the favourite wins 50 of those races then statistically any favourite has a 50% chance of winning. If you could back every favourite at bigger than even money in those circumstances then you would make a profit. You don’t need to have a knowledge of form to back those horses. All you need to know is the statistical chance of

    any

    favourite winning and the price at which that winning percentage will turn a profit.

    It is the word "any" that is wrong here Tuffers, ANY needs to be replaced with AVERAGE. Because you can not know the percentage / statistical chance of ANY favourite. All you can know is the AVERAGE percentage / statistical chance of a favourite. Therefore in your example, if you back every horse in those races at bigger than Evens, you have no way of knowing if those Even Money chances have a bigger than AVERAGE chance or less than AVERAGE chance of winning. Unless you look at FORM, which will tell you if the race is more or less competitive than normal. So all you will probably be doing is backing favourites with LESS than AVERAGE chance of winning, and will make a LOSS.

    I myself have data from Timeform that shows me what percentage strike rate any trainer (who has had a certain amount of winners) has had over a long period of time. One certain trainer has a 32% strike rate first time out with his older horses. 32% equates to a price of 85/40. But that does not mean I should back every FTO older horse from his yard at anything bigger than 85/40. Because the statistics of all those under 85/40 have been included in the statistics to make that 32%. What I can do is use the information allied to form. If a horse has a reasonable chance on form I know there is an excellant chance he will be fit and may be able to beat horses from other stables with a poor record first time out. There are some with a 0% strike rate!

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #225395
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    I’m afraid I don’t really have any "Racing" opinions in the way others do here. Does that mean I am not welcome?

    Not at all Caledon, everyone is welcome. In fact its refreshing to see a different approach to Horse Race gambling. And judging by the amount of pages this thread has reached in a short space of time you are proving a valuable contributor. Creating debates like these are what these sites are all about in my opinion. No ones right, no ones wrong, everyone is entertained!

    #225420
    Avatar photoTuffers
    Member
    • Total Posts 1402

    I myself have data from Timeform that shows me what percentage strike rate any trainer (who has had a certain amount of winners) has had over a long period of time. One certain trainer has a 32% strike rate first time out with his older horses. 32% equates to a price of 85/40. But that does not mean I should back every FTO older horse from his yard at anything bigger than 85/40. Because the statistics of all those under 85/40 have been included in the statistics to make that 32%. What I can do is use the information allied to form. If a horse has a reasonable chance on form I know there is an excellant chance he will be fit and may be able to beat horses from other stables with a poor record first time out. There are some with a 0% strike rate!

    Mark

    I said it was probably a poor example. If you look back on my later post from yesterday you will see I have given you an example that is not price dependent and which would have enabled you to back horses blind ie with no knowledge of form whatsoever and make a profit in each of the last five years.

    #225724
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Gingertipster you are without doubt the most boorish, blinkered, opinionated pedant I have ever come across on this Forum. We have little evidence that you make anything but small profit from your betting yet you continue to shove your narrow racing views down the throats of everyone on here ad nauseum. Do yourself a favour and do a bit less pontificating and a bit more listening- you might actually learn something.

    #225735
    Avatar photonulty
    Participant
    • Total Posts 443

    And judging by the amount of pages this thread has reached in a short space of time you are proving a valuable contributor. Creating debates like these are what these sites are all about in my opinion. No ones right, no ones wrong, everyone is

    entertained

    !

    Got to agree with that as it certainly kept me entertained for 10 minutes reading it.
    Best stuff I’ve read since the "Da Vinci Code"
    :lol: :lol: :lol:

    It only took you ten minutes?!!

    Ok, now I know I’m slow! :?

    This is why I miss the start of every race cause I’m still buried in the paper! :D

    #225738
    Avatar photocarlisle
    Member
    • Total Posts 772

    Hi Caledon,

    as far as making a living from betting…"I am ALL IN".

    I don’t have a "real" job, so horse racing is my full-time occupation.

    Completely confident that i can eventually make Big sustainable profits. I consider this outcome to be a gradually evolving process.

    Just like you i have been "away" from betting… i also know exacting what you mean by "a dwindling bank balance".

    I look forward to discussing some future races.

    byefrom
    Gary 8)

    #225770
    Avatar photoWalkerTrader
    Member
    • Total Posts 41

    I’ve just read this thread. Ken(West Derby) – I can assure you that Caledon and I are seperate people!!

    #225771
    Avatar photoWalkerTrader
    Member
    • Total Posts 41

    That is if your refering to me as ‘fresh faced gambler from Liverpool’

    In that case, thanks and yes I do use Oil of Ulay (Olay!!)

    #225773
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Gingertipster you are without doubt the most boorish, blinkered, opinionated pedant I have ever come across on this Forum. We have little evidence that you make anything but small profit from your betting yet you continue to shove your narrow racing views down the throats of everyone on here ad nauseum. Do yourself a favour and do a bit less pontificating and a bit more listening- you might actually learn something.

    ROFL .. that’s a bit of a gauntlet thrown down there, to say the least. You should start a racing blog ginge and just post up what you are backing and to how much .. that would shut them up, wouldn’t it?
    :D

    #225778
    Avatar photoDolus
    Participant
    • Total Posts 313

    I was a little gobsmacked at GT’s response to Tuffers assertion that if in certain circumstances 50% of favourites win and you can back them all at above evens you will make money.

    This is the cornerstone of VALUE betting which is GT’s favourite hobby horse.

    I thought Tuffers reply was very diplomatic. I think GT could start an argument with himself :lol:

    As for his own blog or web site he might already be on it. :twisted:

    http://trickybets.com/odds.htm

    #225858
    Avatar photoCaledon
    Member
    • Total Posts 59

    Hi All,

    Sorry I have been missing AWOL for a couple of days but family committments have kept me from the laptop.

    Still no method bets yet but I’m having a wonderful time with the Angel.

    BTW… if anyone wants to message me offline please feel free.

    I think this thread has gone about far enough now, so, let me think of another topic to post :idea:

    #225882
    Sean Rua
    Member
    • Total Posts 511

    Not sure if Caledon is still about, but I just wanted to ask if he believes in "trading" and/or "dutching"?
    I noticed he mentioned "Angel" several times.

    #225912
    Avatar photoGerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Going back to Caledon’s suggestion that we divide races up into Race Types and Courses , and then think about it; my immediate thought was that for some of these divisions, for example G1s at Newbury, there is only one race.

    I was also thinking that I wouldn’t want to group 6f Mdn races with 1m4f Mdn races, or 2yos, 3yos and 4yo+. That would lead to lots of races being unique, and lots more having only 2 or 3 of that Race Type at the course over that distance.

    This was leading me to think that maybe Caledon uses trends, and uses some kind of multivariate analysis.

    But it is the 70% strike rate that gets me. Maybe he bets all the bays, because the chestnuts and greys are overbet? :lol:

    The other thing that I am still hung up about is that Caledon said he was using something that racing people wouldn’t think of, or ask. I’m can’t figure out what this could be, when he is basing his selections on information that is obtainable from racing statistics.

    Anyway, I now have a better Internet connection, so in a couple of days (after Chester) , I’ll start doing my own number crunching.

    #226002
    Avatar photoCaledon
    Member
    • Total Posts 59

    Not sure if Caledon is still about, but I just wanted to ask if he believes in "trading" and/or "dutching"?
    I noticed he mentioned "Angel" several times.

    Hi there,

    I just discovered the trading platform a few days ago and all I can say is WOW. I certainly do believe in both the methods you mention and with no method selections recently I have been busy learning the black art of trading :)

    #226003
    Avatar photoCaledon
    Member
    • Total Posts 59

    The other thing that I am still hung up about is that Caledon said he was using something that racing people wouldn’t think of, or ask. I’m can’t figure out what this could be, when he is basing his selections on information that is obtainable from racing statistics.

    Hi Gerald,

    The only thing I can say that might help in this is FACTS rather than FICTION or as Gingertipster would say OPINION.

    Concentrate on FACT and look for the pointers there. Hope that helps a bit.

    #226004
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34707

    Gingertipster you are without doubt the most boorish, blinkered, opinionated pedant I have ever come across on this Forum. We have little evidence that you make anything but small profit from your betting yet you continue to shove your narrow racing views down the throats of everyone on here ad nauseum. Do yourself a favour and do a bit less pontificating and a bit more listening- you might actually learn something.

    :lol:

    Calm down Carvills, I love you too.
    If you are bored then don’t read it. May be I try to explain myself a bit too much, sorry about that Carv. Am possibly opinionated yes, not blinkered though. Have learnt a great deal over the years from listening to intelligent people /punters, including some on here (including about the V word).

    You are right, I do only show a small profit (depending on what you call small), but a small profit is better than a loss. Have not put much on, just proving to myself I can do it first.

    If you want I can supply you with two forums I have made a profit with my "tips". Again, just a small profit.

    Like to say I am bored with you too Carv but find your comments quite interesting; well, most of the time anyway.

    Again, sorry I have annoyed you so much Carv, will just read what everyone else says for a while. Look forward to seeing "Gingewatch". :roll:

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
    #226005
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34707

    I was a little gobsmacked at GT’s response to Tuffers assertion that if in certain circumstances 50% of favourites win and you can back them all at above evens you will make money.

    This is the cornerstone of VALUE betting which is GT’s favourite hobby horse.

    I thought Tuffers reply was very diplomatic. I think GT could start an argument with himself :lol:

    As for his own blog or web site he might already be on it. :twisted:

    http://trickybets.com/odds.htm

    Like to explain Dolus but am afraid it would bore some people.

    Am a tortured sole, always having arguements with myself. :lol:

    Tuffers,
    If they are such poor examples why give them? Seems pointless.

    Mark

    Value Is Everything
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