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You’ve passed Gerald
You are in.Yes, I can see calling it "true odds" is a little misleading. The trouble is this "Table Of Odds And Chances" is also sometimes called the "True Odds Table", so I like to call it both at different times.
Have seen in the past members saying "there is no such thing as TRUE ODDS in horse racing because value is subjective opinion". So you are obviously right Gerald, it does confuse some, may be I ought to stick to The Table Of Odds and Chances in future correspondants.
Mark
Value Is EverythingEthan,
Your ability to come up with tosh is amazing… now there is only one person with the same username. You truly are a fool. You should get a job with the Met, I hear that’s their style too… fit him up whatever the cost.
I fully understand the "Kelly Criterion" in fact my dissertation covered it in quite some detail. I also understand fully, the "odds-algorithm" or "Bruss-algorithm", the Poisson process and many other mathematical functions you couldn’t even start to process in your tiny mind.
I also fully understand what True Odds are as opposed to Bookmakers odds, but then I doubt the person questioning me about it fully understands why. A little knowledge in the hand of idiot is a dangerous thing.
If you want to start a discussion on higher probability, or on any gambling/mathematics related subject, then feel free, I would love to share your seemingly vast knowledge and why not get Gingertipster to join you as he seems to be an expert.
This thread when first started looked as if it might be interesting, but it has turned into a ‘My penis is bigger than your penis’ slanging match, with one person on one side and everyone else on the other.
I haven’t seen a thread like this since a few years ago when we had that chap who claimed to have found a secret code in the odds, that the bookmakers used to tell each other which horse was going to win.
Something has got to give,.come on Caledon give us a snippet of what you do so we can all say WOW and think ‘Why didn’t I think of that.’
You have already posted up one piece of information that has made me see things in a different light. We all know about bookmakers over round where the prices add up to more than 100%, hence their profit, but you stating it in a different way (Bookmakers are trying to sell 100% at greater than 100%.) allowed me to see it from a different angle.
But isn’t that all part of the pantomime of racing message-boards, Dolus?
Oh no it isn’t; oh yes it is.This sort of thread is meat and drink to the attention-seekers who populate these places.
There are three main groups whom internet punters love to hate:jockeys
bookmakers
successful punters.Let one of these write in with a viewpoint, and the forum hounds round on him, like Newmarket bov ver-boys, just queueing up to put in the boot.
The new guy has already said that he’s prepared to contribute to any thread that’s started on the subject of math, probability, and this old "true odds" nonsense, so I look forward to seeing it.
Everybody secretly enjoys a vicarious rumble, and, but for the fact that I’m such an old fogie, I’d be joining in with all the other tossers on here ( as long as me ould mammie didn’t catch me at it.
)Cal,
Just because you have a maths degree, why call people idiots?
Just because you’re better than me
Doesn’t mean, I’m la-zy
Just because you’re going forwards
Does’nt mean, I’m going backwards.
Just because I dress like this
Doesn’t mean, I’m a communist.Mark (and Billy Bragg)
Value Is EverythingHi All,
I will be restarting my pro-gambling career on the 1st May after a five year lay-off, this has been dictated due to my dwindling bank account and complete boredom …. I miss my old way of life.
And you wonder why so many can see straight through you, your very first line speaks volumes!
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I don’t know why you think we are attacking you because all we are doing is discussing what you say in your posts.
Rubbish…. all you are trying to do is discredit something you can’t begin to comprehend and me! A true discussion would involve trying to better understand how I achieve things with meaningful debate.
If it means that much to you probably the easiest way would be to put your selections up for the next 12 months in the Lays and Plays section and let the members judge your results
LOL… you do make I laugh. That’s exactly what I knew you would say and so typical. Yes sure, I’ll post so you can make a living out of someone elses hard work. Bet you don’t use tipsters either, and you are in profit etc etc. What a tool. Now I know what you really are, think I’ll stick around to see you and your like exposed. Move over you opiniated parasite theres a new show in town.
That’s booolchit!!! I have ben puting my kneck on the line here more often than most and I have made a small fortune over the last 2 years. I doubt if anyone pays the least bit of attention to what I say nor do they make money following my selections.
I post almost every major bet I have on here and all my small ones. I haven’t laid a horse so far so I don’t go there but if you care to check my posts over the last few weeks since Cheltenham I am clearly miles in front.
Don’t need to look far for my last two major bets they were yesterday at 13/8 and 4/1 returning at 1/1 and 9/2.
I believe Carvillshill’s has a excellent record in Lays and Plays but I doubt if anyone follows him.
Would do no harm to do it for a week or 2 to prove your point instead of opening your mouth and letting your belly rumble.
There are hundreds of guys on here every week who voice there opinions and if you think for one minute everyone is going to stop doing it their way and start backing everything you put up then your of your rocker.
IMO you are making a very feeble excuse to hide the fact you’re a Bengal Lancer
If you want an apology I will do so once you prove me wrong.
To be fair, I don’t think putting up selections for a few weeks will prove anything Fist. Even a pro gambler goes through losing runs, and a mug punter has a winning run now and again.
Please, don’t think I am calling anyone a mug, that’s just how it is. Would be much better if Cal were to give selections for a season or even a year.
Fist,
Would it be possible for you to put your future selections in one thread please (in the lays and plays)? Would like to see them all without searching the forum.Mark
Value Is EverythingThe time has arrived, Caledon……..
As you will have noticed from my posts, I have gone out of my way to cut you some slack and attempted to persuade others to do likewise.
However, after almost five thousand viewings on the subject of Caledon, even I am beginning to feel a sense of disappointment that, despite your grand entrance onto the forum, we have been taken all round the houses with little to show for our efforts. We are no nearer to understanding or truly appreciating what you are about.
You have given no indication of revealing your past successes. Just one example of what, when and where might allay the doubts as to your credentials and professionalism. Having admitted to only a few bets per year, there must be at least one that sticks in your mind as your greatest achievement?
Surely, your first venture into pro-gambling was a significant and memorable moment in your life? How did your family react to your new occupation might be informative as to whether or not we have the genuine article?
Finally, as you profess to be a mathematician here is a question that will have you stumped:If it takes a new member five minutes to weave a web of deceit,
How long would it take the same person to reveal the truth?Answer on a postcard please.
Cheers
Kenhttp://www.desirapesta.com/Blog%20Images/troll.jpg
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
- Total Posts 17716
To be fair, I don’t think putting up selections for a few weeks will prove anything Fist. Even a pro gambler goes through losing runs, and a mug punter has a winning run now and again.
Please, don’t think I am calling anyone a mug, that’s just how it is. Would be much better if Cal were to give selections for a season or even a year.
Fist,
Would it be possible for you to put your future selections in one thread please (in the lays and plays)? Would like to see them all without searching the forum.Mark
What so you can make a fortune out of me?
I know what you are saying but a couple of weeks was just a idea. The guy should be able to show us at least he knows what he’s doing should he not?
Hi All,
I will be restarting my pro-gambling career on the 1st May after a five year lay-off, this has been dictated due to my dwindling bank account and complete boredom …. I miss my old way of life.
And you wonder why so many can see straight through you, your very first line speaks volumes!
I’m baffled… I have a degree in maths not bullshit. Can you please explain your reasoning here and, if you are going to use the quote function please learn to use it properly
Good old Fist, i love that line about you making a small fortune! Very small
if you include Binocular! Seriously though at least, what you see is what you get with your opinions, i like people who wear their heart on their sleeves and who admit it when they are wrong!!
Caledon. likes to tell everyone he"s found the "holy grail" to horse racing
success, but wont tell anyone what it is! He has managed to run his "secret system" to 14 pages now and yet Nobodys any the wiser!
I reckon Johnny Murtaghs been reading his posts!You have given no indication of revealing your past successes. Just one example of what, when and where might allay the doubts as to your credentials and professionalism.
I have, to the people who responded with polite reasoning. They will know exactly where my bet was today, maybe not exactly why, but they will no where and I am trying to help them understand why.
Surely, your first venture into pro-gambling was a significant and memorable moment in your life? How did your family react to your new occupation might be informative as to whether or not we have the genuine article?
As I have explained before, the act itself is completely emotionless for me, it was then and it is now. And, please don’t misconstrue this as that I have no interest in racing whatsoever, because I do, especially the spectacles of the bigger events. It was emotionless because I knew I was right and it remains the case today, albeit with a few minor modificaions over the years. My family are fully supportive because I have proved myself capable and of course they enjoy the benefits. My wife is a fully qualified Anthropologist and has her own income stream.
Finally, as you profess to be a mathematician here is a question that will have you stumped:
If it takes a new member five minutes to weave a web of deceit,
How long would it take the same person to reveal the truth?There ya go, ya just had to go and spoil it by being a dick
Caledon. likes to tell everyone he"s found the "holy grail" to horse racing success, but wont tell anyone what it is! !
Nowhere have I mentioned anything about a "holy grail"!
All that has come from you and your friends on here. I have a method that works and that is all I have said. I have quoted Strike Rate and ROI nothing more. You and your friends have created the myth of the "holy grail" not I. If you have a question about how I work then ask don’t just jerk your friends egos off by siding in with them.
And, whilst I remember, who said that I was a ex Blackjack player, or a Blackjack player in a previous life. To clear things up… I still am and will continue to be so long after I give up on horseracing.
I have, to the people who responded with polite reasoning. They will know exactly where my bet was today, maybe not exactly why, but they will no where and I am trying to help them understand why.
Would you ever go and do one. What a load of patronising shyte. Your name’s not Caledon van der Wheil by any chance?
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