Good post Ian,
One small thing I would say though in your sentence:
“But sometimes, over some things, I just KNOW – because I’ve seen and profited from the same pattern of outcomes time and time again for 40 plus years and still do to this day”.
True enough for the most part, but with one caveat. Have found over the years some things that have brought me profit for nearly 40 years (because they’ve been underestimated by the market) have become less profitable or even loss making because they’re now in the public mind (no longer underestimated).
Listening to public broadcasting makes it easier for me to notice things that have now come into the public mind.
Value Is Everything