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First Test time again. Is it just me or does it seem wrong to have the First Test at Lords in mid May?
As usual, the patriotic pounds have been piling on England to such an extent that New Zealand are a ludicrous 9-1 in some places, in what is, let us remember, a three horse race. Chris Martin has been grumbling that this England team is over-hyped and I think he is right. They are the better of the two teams, particularly in the batting department, but the Black Caps do at least have two potentially good new players in Redmond (who has already hit a rich vein of form on tour) and Flynn, as opposed to tried and tested no-hopers Bell and Vincent. Then there is that formidable lower middle order of McCullum, Oram and Vettori.
In terms of bowling, I have the two teams much closer and on pure stats, a case can be made that the visitors are better. Only one of the England bowlers averages under 30. Broad is likely to be better than his current average of 38 but the real weaknesses in the England attack are the lack of a fifth bowler (and no I don’t count Collingwood’s military medium) and the selection of old wobbly head himself, Mr James Anderson. I won’t go on at length for fear of the damage I might do to the blood vessels in my head, but suffice it to say I am not a fan of Anderson and the fact that he gets to ply his feeble trade while the mighty Hoggard has to carry the drinks is an injustice that should feature on Panorama. New Zealand meanwhile have a nicely balanced five man attack and if rookie Southee can adapt to the Lords slope, he looks a real find.
The imponderable will be the liklihood of a draw. Getting the draw right is the key to cricket betting and it is a tricky business. There is rain promised tomorrow and to a lesser extent on Saturday. And Lords has in recent times (perhaps down to the new drainage?) become a pitch that gets flatter as the match goes on (4 draws out of the last 10 tells a story).
But it does usually offer some movement on the first day and there are bowlers on both sides who can take advantage. I have the draw somewhere around 2-1 (3.0) but it is tentative.But the clear value, as far as I can see is to back the visitors at the current silly odds of 10.0
9/1 about New Zealand is big odds, England may be better(only slightly imo) but New Zealand do have players capable of doing damage on any given day.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Then there is that formidable lower middle order of McCullum, Oram and Vettori.
Absolutely. The whole series for me could hinge on which team’s numbers six, seven and eight prove most able to take the game away from the opposition in the space of a session, and all three of the above are perfectly capable of pulling out a destructive innings from somewhere. Will a possibly less-than-100% fit Collingwood and the still comparatively inexperienced Ambrose and Broad be able to equal or better their efforts as required?
I think it would also be dangerous to regard Tim Southee’s biffing innings in the last Test as just a bit of knockabout fun, a spirited throwing around of the bat in an ultimately lost cause. The signs were there that he can certainly get his eye in, and on that showing I’d already be inclined to regard him as the most troublesome nine to eleven batsman on either side.
It’s a play on Betfair for New Zealand for me as well.
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
i thought the draw was far too short last night at just above evens so have layed accordingly, prolonged heavy rain is not expected and the drainage at lords as everyone knows is excellent. Also i just cannot see New zealand being able to get the 450+ runs in the 1st innings they’ll need to force a draw. An inexperienced top order and personally i feel too much pressure pressure on ross taylor to perform.
time will tell, but i can’t wait. i just love this time of year.
I see Steve Harmison has injured Matthew Hoggard’s right thumb which has ruled Hoggy out of the next test. Broad, Sidebottom and Anderson better be on their guard if they get within a 50 metre radius of big Steve. im guessing by what Andrew Hughes wrote at the start of the thread it would’nt be a bad idea in Anderson’s case
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Harmison is unbelievable. Not only does he play cricket like a sulky teenager who’s been dragged away from his Playstation and forced to wear an England shirt, now he’s actually injuring other England players. But then, Anderson was not going to be dropped for the Second Test anyway. As long as Hoggard is fit for South Africa, that’s what counts.
Been a funny Test match so far. Rain has pretty much ruined it but some good stuff in between. Solid bowling today from New Zealand, confirmed what we all know about England – they lack ruthlessness, aggression or a solid game plan – whatever it is, there’s something missing.
I actually backed New Zealand again at the end of the second day when they were an unbelievable 40-1 – the price was wrong but I don’t think I’ll be collecting. Good to see a Vaughan big innings, always a lovely batsman to watch.
As much as i like Strauss as a seemingly very decent bloke, watching his slow crawl to fifty (and it wasnt as if the other end was flying), makes the continued absense of Ramps even more baffling. Strauss does not have the defensive technique to be a truely reliable anchor and nor the attacking variety (big contrast with ramps here..) to really dominate a savvy attack
I dont see the NZ lower order as being "formidable". Mccullam rode his luck big time and there are stronger lower orders around the test circuit
The top order is very ordinary and i would be confident that Negland will take the next two tests
Big fan of Chris Martin’s bowling though. Really thinks his game through
Strauss has 2 1/2 shots. His early England career was based on employing them appropriately and blocking/ignoring for the rest of the time. As Boycott said on TMS yesterday, cricket is not just about having all the shots, but deciding when to use them correctly. He is no use to England blazing a quick thirty then holing out. He won’t be a long term selection anyway.
And I see the name of Ramprakash has been invoked again. This is a man with a Test average of 27 who repeatedly showed he hadn’t the mental strength for Test cricket (his regular scores in the twenties were always agonisingly tortured affairs) and when offered the chance to be on standby last winter chose to turn it down. He is also nearer to forty than thirty five. Ramprakash is the past, the failed past, I might add, and I don’t care how many easy runs he scores in domestic cricket. County cricket, for all that it has improved, does not come anywhere near to replicating the intensity of Test cricket and no amount of county centuries will alter the fact that Ramprakash, like Hick before him, lacks the mental equipment to fulfill his considerable talent on the international stage.
Perhaps descriptions of the NZ 6-7-8 as ‘formidable’ were a little over the top and with hindsight I would have gone for ‘strong’. There is also the fact that McCullum is now batting at 5. But I’m not sure there are that many stronger lower middle orders around. Not even Australia, these days.
Well said, Andrew. I can’t think of too much about Ramprakash that has changed in the last few years that would make him any more reliable a conveyance at Test level than hitherto… and that’s even before we get onto considering what messages it sends out to other batting aspirants that England is prepared to fall back on a man for whom endorsements by Sanatogen Tonic Wine would not be wholly inappropriate.
Re: Chris Martin – it’s incredible to think he finds the time to hone his craft, given his prolonged periods out of the game peddling numbingly tedious radio-friendly rock and procreating strangely-monikered children with a weepy hinnie from Tinseltown.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Total rubbish about Ramps
Since his move to Surrey he has become a lot more relaxed in both his outlook and game. He was hardly the only player suffering from a tense dressing room at that time either
Why not play at 35? or 37? Gooch had some of his best years at this age.
I would bet my life that he would adapt immediately. In many ways the pressure would be off and bar KP and perhaps Bell on a good day, his natural game is streets ahead of the rest of the side.
can’t think of too much about Ramprakash that has changed in the last few years that would make him any more reliable a conveyance at Test level than hitherto
I can think of just about everything….
Was he demolishing domestic attacks in the same manner when he first played for England?
given his prolonged periods out of the game peddling numbingly tedious radio-friendly rock and procreating strangely-monikered children with a weepy hinnie from Tinseltown.
To be fair, neither of these activities would take too long. Ample time to squeeze in the odd Test match.
Clivex I fail to see why the need to be so aggressive in your posts.
Ramprakash has had his chance and for that matter a few other people’s chances too. It wasn’t that the dressing room was tense, he was so racked with nerves himself that he could barely hold the bat. No doubt he has relaxed since going to Surrey and accepting his England days were over – the pressure is always off in county cricket for a player of his talent and he has clearly thrived. He has always had the ability to pulverise county attacks. That proves nothing.
Comparisons with Gooch are, to use your phrase, total rubbish. Gooch in his mid thirties already had an impressive Test record behind him, was a proven big match player with the temperament to cope with Test cricket. Ramprakash’s Test average is 27 and he regularly failed on the big stage. There is no comparison.
His talent is not in dispute. Talent is not enough.
No doubt he has relaxed since going to Surrey and accepting his England days were over
How do you know that he "accepted" this?
And facts wrong as well. He played around 10 tests after his move to Surrey
I said no doubt he has relaxed more since moving to Surrey AND accepting his England days were over – I did not state that the two occurred at precisely the same time.
I don’t ‘know’ that he has accepted his England days were over, it was a turn of phrase to suggest that a prolonged period away from the international arena might have helped him relax more and play his natural game. Had I known my posts were going to be scrutinised in such depth, I would of course have hired a lawyer to help me phrase my post more carefully.
Really, Clivex, I fail to see the need for your aggressive approach. We are simply discussing cricket informally on an internet forum – why the adversarial and antagonistic tone?
Dont such a big girls blouse
I was merely being pedantic about the Surrey/England thing anyway.Apolgies perhaps. Not my usual style.
I would concede that he was pretty awful on those last tours but the record was probably no worse (maybe better) than strauss’s lean patch
If there was no realistic place for Ramps in the england team, then fair enough..he had had his chance
But there has been a gap in that top order
Big girl’s blouse? I’ll have you know I’m a size 12 at most! Still, I take your point. Handbags down.
The Strauss thing is a tricky one. I feel some sympathy for him, as in my opinion, he should have been captain for the last Ashes. In Fletcher’s autobiography he outlined at length why Flintoff was not suitable and could only come up with one factor that counted against Strauss, yet he went with Flintoff anyway. But that’s ancient history.
But he was fortunate, very fortunate to get a recall, as you pointed out. I think Ramprakash’s attitude to being asked to be on standby may have counted against him – not sure. Owais Shah is also a little unlucky as he hasn’t really had a chance yet.
Yes. Fletchers bio ( a much better book than the critics claimed) was clear on that. Fletcher hardly shouted out his mistakes but that was as close as i felt he came to admitting a serious misjudgement
Also, hinted strongly at a personality clash beteen Flintoff/Harmison clique and Strauss
I think Strauss was hasrhly treated there. He seemed tactically astute enough and has the barin and clam head to make a decent captain. maybe there was something i am missing…but cant think what it is
Flintoff was never a captain IMO.
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