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Interesting Stats

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  • #3120
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    Phew – just spent around 5 hours doing a LOT of research on every Group 1 raced in this country since 2001. I took a record of both Godolphin’s and Ballydoyle’s shortest-priced runner in each race – their position, their price.

    Godolphin have had TEN of such horses finish LAST. Lateen Sails, Opera Cape, Kutub, Fen Shui, Tizdubai, Sundrop, Refuse To Bend, Vespone, Best of the Bests and Dubai Destination.

    In contrast, Ballydoyle have actually had ELEVEN. Antonius Pius, Meath, Bach, Ace, Antonius Pius, Sequoyah, Tycoon, Sholokhov, Mullins Bay, Virginia Waters and Sholokhov.

    5 of these last places for Godolphin took place in single-figure fields.<br>6 for Ballydoyle.

    7 of these last places for Godolphin were single-figure prices (ie. less than 10/1)<br>8 for Ballydoyle.

    So in all fairness to Godolphin, Ballydoyle have very similar stats in terms of last place finishes for first-string horses.

    If you look at the last 3 places (minimum 7 runners), Godolphin have had 12 finishes (not including last place finishes).

    Ballydoyle have had 10.

    But it’s not that black and white. Godolphin’s participancy rate since 2001 in 2yo Group 1s is disgusting. 3 runners.

    Bar 5 years, Ballydoyle have had at least one runner in every UK 2yo Group 1 since 2001.

    Shockingly though, if 2yo Group 1s are taken out of the equation, (still using minimum 7 runners), Ballydoyle and Godolphin both have just 1 runner less that finished in the last 3.

    If the minimum number of runners was 6, you could take away 3 Ballydoyle runners that finished in the last 3, but also 2 Godolphin runners.

    Not suprising to see that sprint Group 1s were those races short of competitors from either Ballydoyle or Godolphin. Godolphin have had 0 runners in the Nunthorpe since 2001, while 8 of the past 18 July Cups/Sprint Cups/Nunthorpe Stakes had 0 runners from either stable.

    And wider research of pacemakers shows that 38 of the 84 Group 1s between 2001 and 2003 had pacemakers. Add this to the 16 of 90 from 2004 to 2006, means there have been pacemakers involved in 54 of the past 174 Group 1s, a percentage of 32%

    This shows certainly that the number of pacemakers is dropping.<br>2001 – 52%<br>2002 – 50%<br>2003 – 34%<br>2004 – 27%<br>2005 – 7%<br>2006 – 20%

    (Bear in mind, the Falmouth Stakes was not a Group 1 until 2004, the Golden Jubilee was not a G1 until 2002, and the Queen Anne was not a Group 1 until 2003)

    I still have to check French Group 1s at all (either for pacemakers or Ballydoyle-Godolphin runners), but I’m getting up in just over an hour for the Japanese GP, so I’ll do research doing the race! :cheesy:

    I’ll also do a Irish Group 1 search for Ballydoyle and Godolphin runners.

    EDIT – Forgot to list where the pacemakers came from (10 races had more than 1 pacemaker)

    Ballydoyle are responsible for 35 pacemakers.<br>Godolphin 22.<br>Tregoning 3.<br>Stoute 2.<br>Meehan 1.<br>Royal Ascot Racing Club 1.

    (Edited by jackane24 at 5:05 am on Oct. 8, 2006)<br>

    (Edited by jackane24 at 5:06 am on Oct. 8, 2006)

    #79046
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    So, what does this tell us?

    #79047
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    But it’s not that black and white. Godolphin’s participancy rate since 2001 in 2yo Group 1s is disgusting. 3 runners.

    What are you talking about?

    For a start, for some of that time, godolphin didn’t actually train any 2yos.

    To put up this research without pointing this out is very sloppy.

    Steve  

    #79048
    Librettist
    Member
    • Total Posts 559

    What is the point of all this? Are you trying to conclusively prove that one stable is better than the other?

    You were going along so nicely and without a hint of bias too, until the "disgusting" comment regarding Godolphins 2yo runners in Group One races. What’s that all about?

    P.S. Have you heard the whisper about Teofilo joining Godolphin next year:biggrin:

    #79049
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Quote: from Librettist on 11:31 am on Oct. 8, 2006[br]<br>P.S. Have you heard the whisper about Teofilo joining Godolphin next year:biggrin:

    That had better be a joke, otherwise I’m laying off my ante-post bet on the horse right now.

    #79050
    Librettist
    Member
    • Total Posts 559

    Quote: from davidjohnson on 11:45 am on Oct. 8, 2006[br]

    Quote: from Librettist on 11:31 am on Oct. 8, 2006[br]<br>P.S. Have you heard the whisper about Teofilo joining Godolphin next year:biggrin:

    That had better be a joke, otherwise I’m laying off my ante-post bet on the horse right now.

    Well he does fit their purchasing profile doesn’t he?

    I wouldn’t worry too much – 99% of rumours turn out to be complete rubbish…and they didn’t get Sir Percy!

    #79051
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Its a good thing you are young enough to not worry about wasting your time Jackane :)

    I havent a clue what these stats are supposed to represent

    #79052
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Well he does fit their purchasing profile doesn’t he?

    In that he’s got four legs and has shown far more talent than anything that they have got? Yes I’d fully agree. However he is by a Coolmore sire so it may prove a stumbling block if the Sheikh is still in a strop about not buying their stock and a thread on the Betfair forum suggests that Coolmore have signed the rights to stand him at stud and that he’ll continue to race for Bolger.

    #79053
    Librettist
    Member
    • Total Posts 559

    Haha yes but in fairness he has shown far more talent than anything anyone else has got either. Still, the $9.7m ex Tranquility Lake colt is down to run on friday – nobody laugh when he comes in a staying-on 7th ;)

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