May 23, 2003 at 09:42 #103004No axeMember
- Total Posts 5
The conversation is getting a bit confusing about who’s saying what, but if redman is saying that the UK Government will never allow an industry SP he’s right. A Minister said fairly recently in Parliament that there was nothing sacrosanct about the SP system so they won’t die in a ditch to protect it. On the other hand the OFT wouldn’t allow the off course boys to act as aprice-fixing cartel. If the SP system is ditched there are probably only two options for replacing it. The first is that each off course bookmaker returns their own prices (pure competition and bound to find favour with all parts of Government which is competition mad) and the seconnd is that there is some sort of transparent exchange type market that the big bookmakers all use and some ‘independent’ body like the SP executive uses to some mechanism to extract mid-point prices on. The problem with the last of these is that we;re back to having to find some acceptable formula relating to bets being laid for serious money rather than just the longest price on offer for a fiver.May 23, 2003 at 14:22 #103005roryParticipant
- Total Posts 2685
the big three offer Pari Mutuel betting as a matter of course to their customers ~ those races such as the French Classics on which Industry SP’s are offered simply offer the customers who bet on them a choice in betting medium, not a straightjacket.
For the sake of accuracy, such decisions are made by the ABB which is rather more representative of the industry than just "the big 3".May 23, 2003 at 15:20 #103006Nick HattonMember
- Total Posts 399
I’d just like to point out that in many multiple bets the punter has no choice but to take S.P. on some of the selections.
NickMay 23, 2003 at 16:56 #103007roryParticipant
- Total Posts 2685
James and I come from a very similar viewpoint on this issue, so I hope you’ll excuse me not responding to your kind request specifically.
I don’t think you would stand much chance of success as a bookmaker if you bet to 1% per runner on the races you priced up though. It’s a fundamental fact of bookmaking that you can’t afford to be regularly on the wrong side of popular horses, and in operating to a constant margin of 1% in a fluctuating market, you are in effect betting overbroke, and while the mug punter would still conspire to lose, any vaguely shrewd operator would clean up.
One point you regularly make about bookmakers is that they ensure a profit on every race by operating a balanced book with equal liabilities on each runner. I can’t believe you really think this happens in practice ~ I doubt that there is a race run on any day which guarantees any bookmaker a profit independent of the result. Books are always lopsided because bettors will tend to concentrate on a small proportion of the horses.
I’d be interested to hear your approximation of bookmakers gross profit margin on horse racing singles betting, by the by.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.