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Given how well Mike Winters’ horse ran there I’m having a wee bet on his filly in the bumper. Was really taken with her back at Listowel.
3:25 Navan
Missunited @ EVS (insurebet 3 places Paddy Power)
€50 win
Wymott: -€100
Mount Benbulben: +€150
Missunited: -€50P/L: +€839.73
Arkle Trophy
Peddlers Cross @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
€200 e/w
Might as well outline the reasoning behind this bet. I seen this horse when he won his p2p and I’ve followed his career ever since. I was surprised around this time last year that they were keeping him to hurdles but he clearly possessed more speed than I realised. I think that running a machine like Hurricane Fly to a length will read exceptionally well in time.
His first chase was a bit of a non-event but he had to give weight to a fairly useful rival yesterday in Minella Class (Tolworth winner and still bang there turning in in last season’s Neptune) and he beat him easily.
I can’t see too many novices out there that will challenge him. I have my doubts about Al Ferof. The Supreme Novices form does not look overly strong and to my mind, that horse is a bit too quirky. I’d respect Sprinter Sacre but he found little up the hill last season and could be another Finian’s Rainbow. Horses like that don’t tend to win Arkles. Menorah is the only UK horse with hurdles form to compare with Peddlers Cross but he fell on debut and is on the easy list for a few weeks I understand.
I don’t think there’ll be much of an Irish challenge. Solwhit would have been interesting but he has had a setback and it is now doubtful as to whether he’ll jump a fence in public this season. Gigginstown hold all the aces as far as Irish novice chasers go but they all look like horses who will be better over further than 2 miles. The likes of Days Hotel and Lucky William are nowhere near good enough. Day Of A Lifetime might be interesting but he clearly isn’t the easiest to train and he’ll need to be a fairly special horse to beat Peddlers Cross given his lack of experience.
12:40 Uttoxeter
Open Hearted @ 5/4 (Boylesports)
€50 win
Really liked the way this horse won his bumper at Ludlow recently and he looks like he possesses plenty of scope to make up into a nice jumper.
Open Hearted: -€50
P/L: +€789.73
1:20 Hereford
Kumbeshwar @ EVS (insurebet 2 places Paddy Power)
€50 win
High class juvenile last year and this does not look a particularly strong novice chase. Escortmen looks the main rival and his recent form suggests he’s a total lunatic of a horse.
Tingle Creek Chase
Wishfull Thinking @ 5/1 (Paddy Power)
€50 e/w
Took this price this morning. I think he’ll come on for his Paddy Power run and the jumping test that Sandown presents should play to his strengths. A lot of his rivals in this have question marks over them. Sizing Europe had a hard race up the North and I’ve never been a huge fan of the horse. Tataniano has never really justified his lofty reputation for me and I don’t think the race Kauto Stone won was up to much.
1:00 Exeter
Notus De La Tour @ 5/4 (Victor Chandler)
€50 win
Has already shaped in his two starts over fences like he’ll make a better chaser than a hurdler. I think he’ll be up to giving weight away today. Zaynar is regressive and it’s hard to say that Walkon retains all of his ability looking at his last two starts.
1:55 Sandown
Simonsig @ EVS (insurebet 2 places Paddy Power)
€300 win
Very highly rated when winning two p2ps for Ian Ferguson before bolting up in the Gigginstown p2p bumper at Fairyhouse which rarely fails to throw up a real good horse (Pandorama and Last Instalment have both won it in recent years). I know that the owners refused a six figure sum from Michael O’Leary after the race and the fact that they’ve moved the horse to the best yard in England shows how highly they rate this horse. I’d respect Fingal Bay but I’ve a feeling that Simonsig might be a bit special.
12:00 Aintree
Keys @ 13/8 (Stan James)
€50 win
Closely matched with his market rival on bumper form but seemed to show improvement on the flat and has joined top jumping connections.
12:45 Wetherby
Realt Mor @ 2/1 (Paddy Power)
€50 win
Not overraced but well related – brother to Realt Dubh and should make a better chaser than hurdler.
12:55 Sandown
Knight Pass @ 5/6 (Victor Chandler)
€150 win
Impressed with how he did it at Exeter when weak in the market. This is tougher under a penalty but I don’t think it looks a particulary strong field and he should be up to it.
1:25 Sandown
Drumbaloo @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)
€50 e/w
High quality bumper horse with Jimmy Lambe. Has now joined good UK yard and has always looked like a horse who needs a trip like this.
1:55 Sandown
Al Ferof @ 4/7 (Paddy Power)
€250 win
Nice introduction at Cheltenham. Should have the measure of his rivals here with a clear round.
11:50 Fairyhouse
Toostrong @ EVS (Paddy Power)
€300 win
Hearing good things about this French import. Star Neuville looks the danger but I thought he ran stink at Naas.
1:20 Fairyhouse
Staying Article @ 13/2 (Paddy Power)
€25 e/w
Disappointing that he couldn’t justify strong support last time out but may just have needed it after a long absence. I’m willing to give him another chance in handicap company.
Mixed day today. Disappointed in myself that I didn’t go in a bit heavier on Staying Article given how much I fancied him first time up. Realt Mor lookes to have his race well sewn up at the last and I doubt he’ll be as generous price again in a novice chase at one of the gaff tracks in the north of England. Fine card tomorrow at Fairyhouse. Probably be the first time in a few years that it will actually go ahead on schedule!
12:50 Fairyhouse
Galileos Choice @ 7/2 (Boylesports)
€50 win
Form of his maiden hurdle at Ballybrit is nothing to go shouting about but he showed serious progression on the flat afterwards dismissing Luska Lad at Limerick Junction before winning the Kilternan in impressive style. Was supposed to be heading to Melbourne after that but that plan had to be scrapped due to a technicality ruling him ineligible. He’s priced on his flat form which is not ideal but DK wouldn’t be pitching him in here if he didn’t think he was up to it.
1:20 Fairyhouse
First Lieutenant @ 6/4 (Paddy Power)
€300 win
I think this is a straight match between this horse and Bog Warrior. Shinrock Paddy is probably capable of fairly high rank as a novice chaser but I’m disappointed he hasn’t won yet from two attempts. No surprise that Russell has gone for First Lieutenant given his superior hurdles form. I like the way Mouse campaigns his novices. You can be assured that the three runs he had so far were purely an educational mission for the horse. He’s such a big strapping galloper and tracks like Mallow and Limerick Junction are never going to play to his strengths but they will have sharpened him up. He should relish a test like this at Fairyhouse tomorrow. Bog Warrior is a fairly serious horse himself but First Lieutenant is as hard as nails and I think he’ll outstay his Gigginstown compatriot tomorrow.
1:55 Fairyhouse
Final Approach @ 20/1 (Sky Bet)
€50 win
This probably looks like something of a daft bet but I think I can make a case for him. He showed serious progression last year culminating in his win in the County Hurdle before running with great credit in the French Champion Hurdle when he finished ahead of Grand Cru. I think he might just get the race run to suit tomorrow and there are holes to be picked in each of his rivals. His stablemate Mourad is a deserving favourite on form but he is a horse whos best form is over further. I’ve always had it in my head too that he’s a bit quirky and he may prefer a bigger field and a stronger pace than he’s likely to get tomorrow. Very opposable at the prices IMO. Voler La Vedette is a likeable and consistent mare but she can be very keen in her races and with no guaranteed pace setter, she might not settle. She’s also yet to win at the highest level and she has had ample opportunities to do so, albeit in probably stronger races than tomorrow. Hard to know what to make of The Real Article but my suspicion is that he’d prefer better ground and he might struggle to get home tomorrow. His form is also questionable. He was supposed to be thrown in for the Galway Hurdle but he failed to get the job done and the form of the race up the North isn’t up to much. Oscars Well needed it and was then well beaten in the Morgiana and Sabrina Harty’s horse who ran him so close is no graded performer.
Poor day at the office with First Lieutenant bombing. Hoping to claw some of it back on another Gigginstown novice tomorrow! Thought Galileos Choice was a bit unlucky after he forfeited quite a few lengths on the turn in. That said I’d be surprised if the principals in the Royal Bond are better than the likes of Samain and Waaheb who should be out within the next month. Got a good run for my money from Final Appriach but his lack of a recent run seemed to count against him on the run in. Interesting where he goes next time out.
1:10 Plumpton
Gift Of Dgab @ 7/4 (William Hill)
€150 win
12:35 Clonmel
Tobar Na Gaoise @ 6/5 (insurebet 3 places Paddy Power)
€100 win
2:00 Huntingdon
The Nightingale @ 7/2 (Stan James)
€100 e/w
1:00 Huntingdon
Alasi @ 2/5 (VC)
&
2:05 Clonmel
Blackstairsmountain @ 2/5 (VC)
€200 win dbl
Imperial Call has been AWOL for two weeks now…has he packed up his belongings and left or is he just keeping his Leopardstown fancies to himself
Hope IC is OK.
You were right about Synchronised going for the Lexus IC!
Value Is EverythingAppreciate your kind concern lads but due to a change in my circumstances, I unfotunately just don’t have the time to follow the game as closely as I’d like anymore and I don’t have the time to be on here.
Best of luck with your future punting THM & GT
Sad to hear that IC.
If you haven’t got so much time, then am sure you’ve made the right decision. Hope you can look in from time to time.Best of luck in whatever you’re doing.
Value Is Everything
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