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3:25 Thurles
Mount Benbulben @ 8/13 (Victor Chandler)
€150 win
Should be straightforward today after his Galway mishap. Surprised that there’s 8/13 available about him.
4:25 Thurles
Morning Royalty @ 11/10 (Victor Chandler)
€50 win
Good second in a bumper at the Punchestown festival and this looks a much weaker contest. Half-brother to the very useful Morning Supreme.
Breeders Cup Mile
Goldikova @ 7/4 (Paddy Power)
€100 win
Great draw in stall 1 with her main danger on the formbook drawn out in the carpark. Some people have suggested that she is in decline but her defeats this season were nothing to be ashamed of – Peslier carrying overweight at Ascot, conceding weight to a very good mare in Immortal Verse, and possibly not going for home soon enough over a trip short of her best against Dream Ahead. This is the first time all year she has everything in her favour.
1:35 Down Royal
Dazzling Suzie @ 5/4 (Paddy Power)
€100 win
High class bumper horse and this wouldn’t be the strongest field to line up for this contest. Bit disappointing that she didn’t run at Punchestown but her main rival, Shadow Eile, has a question mark over her after being pulled up in that race. Nora’s Fancy is certainly progressive but she’ll need to improved hugely again.
What do you make of the WKD Core Hurdle Imperial? As big a fan of The Real Article as I am, the 15/8 about Oscars Well looks unbelievable value.
Race to watch I think. I have my doubts about The Real Article. The race the last day sort of fell into his lap. He was getting weight from Luska Lad and Donnas Palm and both of them were just having a spin before going over fences. All Definite Article’s are a bit soft in my experience. Plenty to like about Oscars Well but he’s not guaranteed a good pace here which he’ll need to settle. Power wouldn’t inspire confidence lately either.
Really good card up there. Hopefully be some odds against about Noel Meade’s horse in the maiden hurdle in the morning.
Money anticipated for Murphy’s horse in the bumper? I recall Voler La Vedette winning her bumper up North. That Double Double strikes me as a bit of a dodgepot.
2:05 Down Royal
Oscars Well @ EVS (Paddy Power insurebet 2 places)
€200 win
Was going to sit this contest out but this price is too tempting. Hard to see him finishing outside the first two surely barring a fall?
Poor day today.
2:15 Wincanton
Silviniaco Conte @ 11/8 (Boylesports)
€200 win
Good blow out at Chepstow last time out finishing behind Cue Card and Micheal Flips (won last weekend at Ascot). Will strip fitter for that and this looks a very winnable contest.
2:20 Down Royal
Quito De La Roque @ 100/30 (Coral)
€100 win
I’m slightly concerned that he had a slight setback a month or so ago but I’m keen to take on both Bostons Angel (Harrington’s all needing the run) and Sizing Europe (should be going for the Fortria instead). English raiders have a good record in this but both of their horses this year have holes in them. The Nightingale is a doubtful stayer and Midnight Chase is admirable but shouldn’t be good enough. This race may just fall into QDLR’s lap.
Pretty much what I was thinking myself IC. I wasn’t going to have a big bet but when I was writing a little preview of the runners on the JNWine.com thread I started thinking that Quito really should be winning this race. Don’t have a Coral a/c so I’ll see what sort of price I can get in the morrow. Also agree re Silviniaco Conti.
In the 2m4f chase at Down Royal I think Saludos is the one to be on @ 9/2. He was one of the leading novices here last year and he’s got his ground tomorrow.
Me too IC,
We both want to be against Boston Angel and Siezing Europe and go for Quito De La Roque as the main bet. (I’ve saved on English trained horses). I thought 11/4 was too big and now Quito’s 100/30! Might go in again. Hopefully Corals don’t know "something".
Am a little disappointed he’s running at all. Have Quito in my Totetentofollow at the moment as the main Irish staying chaser. After tomorrow suspect everyone will.
Value Is EverythingMe too IC,
We both want to be against Boston Angel and Siezing Europe and go for Quito De La Roque as the main bet. (I’ve saved on English trained horses). I thought 11/4 was too big and now Quito’s 100/30! Might go in again. Hopefully Corals don’t know "something".
Am a little disappointed he’s running at all. Have Quito in my Totetentofollow at the moment as the main Irish staying chaser. After tomorrow suspect everyone will.
Quito’s last two runs he went off 6/1 and 7/2 both looked massive value at the time, if he does win tomorrow this could be the last chance to back him at a ‘good’ price as the ‘secret’ will be out! I’m lumping on!
I wouldn’t be quito so confident Pants.
Slight setback might mean he’s going to need it. Especially as he’s a big brute who might need plenty of getting fit. No doubt has bags of potential, and is still a good price (imo) but I wouldn’t exactly "lump on" today.
Value Is Everything1:40 Cork
Sword Of Destiny @ EVS (Boylesports)
€100 win
Farrell’s Fancy’s run splitting Last Instalment and The Real Article reads very well but Meade is in absolutely sparkling form and this horse hosed up at Punchestown last month.
3:00 Leopardstown
Tibet @ 9/2 (Boylesports)
€50 e/w
Wasn’t the strongest maiden he won at Gowran Park but he really knuckled down when asked for his effort and battled really well. Like all of Aidan’s 2yos he should have improved for his debut.
3:20 Cork
First Lieutenant @ 5/4 (Paddy Power)
€250 win
Surprisingly turned over by De Valira at this venue last time out but I think we’ll see that reversed tomorrow. All of Mouse’s horses seem to progress from run to run (e.g. Four Commanders yesterday) and this lad took a few runs last year before the penny really dropped.
Key Appointment: -€50
Lelaps: -€50
Mount Benbulben: +€92.31
Morning Royalty: -€50
Goldikova: -€100
Dazzling Suzie: -€100
Ipsos Du Berlais (SP 4/5): +€120
Oscars Well: -€200
Silviniaco Conte: +€275
Quito De La Roque: +€333.33
Sword Of Destiny: +€100
Tibet: -€100
First Lieutenant: +€312.50Overall P/L: +€786.89
2:55 Clonmel
For Bill @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)
€100 win
Big fan of this mare and I’m surprised at her price here. I don’t think there’s as much between her and Blazing Tempo as the book suggests and she ran like a mare in need of a break up North at the weekend. Shop Dj has plenty to prove at this grade.
- Total Posts 17716
Just my view IC, but this is a much lower class race than Blazing Tempo ran in last weekend, and she would have been entered for this before she ran there.
That she’s out 5 days later suggests her stable think she’s well, so why not take what could be a penalty kick.It is a lesser contest no doubt Reet but I think the market overestimates her chance relative to For Bill who gave her a sound beating at Thurles last season. Shop Dj is unexposed and may well take advantage of her lesser weight here but For Bill to my eyes is the most overpriced of the trio.
12:55 Clonmel
Texas Jack @ EVS (Paddy Power)
€100 win
Really liked this horse at Punchestown last May and he won his maiden nicely at Fairyhouse. Meade and Carberry are having their traditional early winter purple patch in the novice events and this horse will have no problem with a slog being a brother to Drumconvis.
2:20 Cheltenham
Uncle Junior @ 6/1 (Paddy Power)
€25 e/w
Not a race to be having a big punt in but I can’t recall Willie having many runners in these events down the years and it’s interesting that he relies on Uncle Junior having also had Scotsirish entered up. He’s classy enough on his day (Thyestes winner) and the opposition does not look that strong. Garde Champetre was a worthy successor to Spotthedifference but he has being showing signs of regression.
2:55 Cheltenham
Steps To Freedom @ 13/8 (Paddy Power)
€100 win
Much the best of these in bumpers and has been kept on the go all summer so should be race fit unlike a lot of Harrington’s other NH horses who seem to be needing their first outing. Ericht looks the danger but Steps To Freedom has already two outings over timber and that experience could make the difference here.
4:05 Cheltenham
Cue Card @ 7/4 (Paddy Power)
€100 win
Impressive debut at Chepstow with two good subsequent winners in behind. I reckon he’ll have too many gears for Grand Cru over 2m4.
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