January 31, 2008 at 03:01 #6457Fist of Fury 2k8Member
- Total Posts 2930
This is not a question for the crazy punters who stand in the bookies all day betting on anything that moves.
For those who take betting seriously and don’t throw good money after bad.
How many horses would you back in any given month and how long would you spend studying a single horse or race before placing a bet. Plus what is the main thing you look for.
I realize Kauto Star runs you don’t even need to think before betting him if the price is right. I mean your normal everyday race.January 31, 2008 at 03:26 #139118LetsGetRacingMember
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I tend to rule out sellers, claimers, classified events and apprentice/conditional races without a second thought, as they rarely offer viable betting opportunities, and on occasion do the same with low-grade all-weather handicaps.
All in all I’ll spend around 3-4 hours assessing an entire day’s racing (after trimming the card’s down as per the above) and will stick to races which I’ve managed to narrow down to a pool of 3 horses within 10-20 minutes. Obviously this will differ when taking in 20+ runner events at Royal Ascot and such like, but I take the view that if I can’t cut away enough of the field in a certain time then the race is too competitive, and therefore too risky, to be getting involved with.
After that I re-evaluate the race (I’m purely a form student, and don’t place any faith in trends or statistics) with the selected pool and decide whether to invest from there.
Whilst I’ve been betting a little more recently, just testing the waters in a variety of different contests, five bets a week is all I’ll stretch to. Unless of course there appears to be more than one bet that is just too good to miss, in which case I have to make a judgement as to whether I up my game a little or not.
But I guess it depends on the nature of the race, performances you have seen (and remembered) throughout the season and whether inspiration decides to hit you at that moment. I remember spending hours looking at just one race at Goodwood, unable to decide between Descartes and High Accolade. I eventually went with the former and did my nuts, in no uncertain terms. Compare that to Penzance’s Triumph Hurdle victory, where I spent about 10-15 minutes on the race in total, backed the winner from all prices down to 6-1, and even had Â£25 on the forecast with Faasel (all proofed at the time over at OHR, if memory serves).January 31, 2008 at 03:42 #139121FlashMember
- Total Posts 1144
Nosey git ain’t ya?
In the month of January FOF I have had 13 bets. Thats my busiest month ever lol. I am slightly down on the month but so little its barely worth the mention.
December I also finished slightly down but again not significant. I had seven bets during that month.
November was a fantastic month hugely profitable for me yet had only 2 bets the whole month and only 1 (successful) in October.
So in four months I’ve had 22 bets.
Between now and April 31 I won’t be doing much betting as my betting year ends on 31 April and I’m way above my yearly target and won’t put my margin in jeopardy. There will be a few bets but not many and not to (for me) significant money.
What do I look for? Firstly I compile my own ratings but only in fields in which I "specialise". I will study a race and analyse it using my ratings and work out roughly what every horse is likely to run to given the conditions. The result of this isn’t taken as gospel, it just gives me a guide and some of it is guesswork or as I like to put it calculated guesswork.
I also compile my own notes about horses and I refer to them as to the horses’ likes / dislikes, if its likely to improve for a trip / cut in ground etc.
Should I find a horse that I have five pounds or more clear on my ratings (what expected to tun to) and my notes indicate the horse will find conditions favourable more so than his opposition then I will be willing to bet depending on price. I never bet at below 2/1 (9/4 on Betfair) so if I can’t get 2/1 I won’t play. Ruairi was most recent a couple of days ago went off 13/8 couldn’t get 2/1 didn’t play. I will then consult my profit / loss column and decide what price I want and how much it is advisable to stake. Should things be suitable I will place the bet.
This is how I usually do things but sometimes you have to be a bit flexible. Sometimes you don’t have all the information at your disposal. In which case I use my logic. For example if I have a horse rated 130 in say a novices chase, next best is 120 and there are three without a mark over fences but one is favourite based on hurdles form sometimes I’ll still back the 130 rated horse and take a chance that the debutant isn’t going to run to (what is a pretty good mark for a novice) on its fencing debut.
You’d think if everything is "perfect" the horse would always be short priced and RPR’s / Official ratings would always be similar to mine but its amazing how often that isn’t the case.
Over jumps I tend to get more dependable bets. On the flat you can get some large prices and be successful. It comes down to how you read form and how well you know your horses.
How long studying a race? Varies, Not that long initially 15 – 20 minutes (as most of my work is done before hand i.e notes and ratings) but I tend to keep going back looking over and over again often when there’s no need to.
That Ok bud?January 31, 2008 at 10:58 #139168batmanMember
- Total Posts 489
i have cut down significantly over the last year (wedding to save for) so i wont bet during the week any more just on the W/end’s, i came to the conclusion that if i looked at the card’s for say a Saturday/Sunday and picked 2-3 horses from all the races i will do a few doubles treble and the horse i think has the greatest chance if a nice price will have a bet on that one, i found more often than not that this brings me a nice return than it did when i was having all kind of bets on loads of races so i try to stick to this formula if i look at the cards and see nothing i fancy i wont have a bet, and if i lose i wont go chasing it…….so all in all on average will have 5 bets a w/end……….January 31, 2008 at 11:08 #139172
I will initially glance through the card and have a brief look at each favourite in the race. If my initial opinion is the favourite has a good chance I am likely to move straight onto the next race and not spend any time on that race (I rarely bet in a race where I feel the fav has a good chance). If I can spot a weakness in a favourite then I will become interested in that race and could spend any ammount of time on the race. I work back to front and like to rule out horses first and see what I am left with and take it from there.January 31, 2008 at 11:16 #139174robnorthParticipant
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I’ll look at most races on the Scottish circuit since I keep an eye on what’s going on up here.If I’m going to a meeting I’ll check out each race in depth.
Off the local circuit I stick to Class 3 races or better, and on the busier days, normally Saturdays, tend to select only the Class 1 and 2 races to look at.
I seldom spend much more than 20 minutes on a race, quite often a lot less. If I’m taking any more than that it’s probably too complicated for the angles I’m looking at.
RobJanuary 31, 2008 at 11:35 #139184
Looking at this thread, I spend too much time on each race and I also back too many horses.January 31, 2008 at 11:54 #139193davidjohnsonMember
- Total Posts 4491
Typically at the moment, 3 or 4 bets a day concentrating solely on all-weather. In the summer with 5 cards a day on the Flat it can be more like 7 or 8.January 31, 2008 at 11:58 #139197
I have no minimum or maximum ammounts of bets to have on a day. If I think there are 5 worthwhile opportunities I will have 5 bets, if I think there are no worthwhile opportunities I will have no bets.
I dont allow class of race to stand in my way of having a bet, I am as happy to bet in seller, claimer and class 6 handicaps as I am to bet in a Grade 1 race. I believe it to be a myth that you should only back in higher grade races.January 31, 2008 at 12:08 #139199
I would find it virtually impossible to look at each race every day, incl AW, sellers, claimers, everything! Even a day with 3 meetings would mean at least 3.5 hrs study (21 races @ 10mins a race).January 31, 2008 at 12:14 #139203
I would find it virtually impossible to look at each race every day, incl AW, sellers, claimers, everything! Even a day with 3 meetings would mean at least 3.5 hrs study (21 races @ 10mins a race).
It is virtually impossible to look at every race, every day, which is why I give each race a quick look at the favourite, if I spot a weakness in that favourite then I spend time on the race and work on it, if I think the fav at first glance looks pretty solid, I dont spend any time on the race. A grade 1 favourite is likely to have less chinks in it than a lower grade race in my view as every man and his dog will know about these grade 1 horses.January 31, 2008 at 13:07 #139211ReasonoverFaithMember
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I’ll use this week as a guide:
Monday – One raced studied, three horses backed.
Tuesday – One raced studied, two horses backed.
Wednesday – One race studied, three horses backed.
Today – Two races studied… don’t know yet!
Probably a couple of races tomorrow and upto half a dozen on a Saturday. That probably constitutes a typical week for me. In terms of time spent on a race – somewhere in the region of 40mins – 1 hour.January 31, 2008 at 13:16 #139213CavParticipant
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I generate a lowish profit margin on a high turnover. Since Friday I’ve bet 432 horses. It takes me about 2 hours either the evening before or morning before racing to set myself up for the day ahead. I play in approximately 80% of races UK and Ireland.January 31, 2008 at 13:23 #139214
Do you mostly trade then Cav?January 31, 2008 at 13:25 #139215CavParticipant
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No trading, lots of Dutching.
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