Horseracebase system

[discretedata]

Pleased to see you found a winner which is more than can be said for the daily top four at the moment.

Due to Bath being abandoned yesterday only two of the top four ran (and lost) so the running total is + £62.99p.

Today’s selections are…..

[*:310icori]15:45 Newbury Oh So Saucy £2,590.00 206 £7.95[/*:m:310icori]
[*:310icori]16:30 Brighton Timeteam (IRE) £1,749.00 191 £10.92[/*:m:310icori]
[*:310icori]17:05 Brighton Magical Speedfit (IRE) £2,523.00 201 £7.97[/*:m:310icori]
[*:310icori]17:15 Sedgefield Stolen Light (IRE) £2,212.00 185 £8.36[/*:m:310icori][/list:o:310icori]

[discretedata]

I’d been having problems when trying to post on this thread on both 29 & 30/09/10. These problems were resolved yesterday afternoon after I had contacted

by email. I thank him again for his assistance.

The information I intended to convey to anyone viewing the thread on Wednesday 29/09/10, was that my mother had passed away peacefully in her sleep at home early the previous evening, following a five year battle against Alzheimer’s Disease and that because of this development I would be absent from the forum for the foreseeable future and thus unable to update the thread on a daily basis.

I hope to revive the topic if not the thread in the not too distant but for the time being I’ll only be paying fleeting visits to the forum.

Thanks and regards,

Terry (discretedata)

[Matron]

Very, sorry to read that your mother has passed away – my, condolences to you and your family.

Regards

[Pompete]

Yes, agree with Matron – very sad news and condolences.

Pete

[billion]

Sorry for your loss

Billy's Outback Shack

[cormack15]

Very sorry to hear of your loss Terry, we hope to see you back here soon.

[elcartero]

So sorry to hear of your loss, Terry…my condolences go out to you and your family.
steve

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[berkoboy]

Firstly, sorry for your loss.

I don’t want to tread on any toes, or if I am being disrespectful but I have followed your system. Of course with your personal life the way it is I can understand why you have other more important things on your mind

If you don’t mind, and I would welcome any feedback if you don’t want me to post I will try to carry on where discretedata left off until he returns.

I can’t say my spreadsheet acumen is as good as his, but bear with me. If anyone else is following this thread and they make their calculations different from me please feel free to put it right.

Wed 6th

Kempton
1900 Rowan Light 13.55 L
1930 carlton Scroop 15.16 W 9/4
2030 Nolecce/Dancing Welcome 11.47 L

Nottingham
1440 Magic Cross 10.96 L

[Matron]

You,

Carry on "berkoboy".

I am sure Terry would not object.

Regards

[berkoboy]

here we go

Wolves 6.10 Barista 12.38

Worc 3.45 Sea Cliff 10.74

Wolves 8.10 Talenti 10.14 W 11/4

Exeter 5.20 Haverstone 10.14

[berkoboy]

Not going to be near computer over the weekend, going away.

I think this system has merits, but only in low prize money racing(AW). to get a rating over 10 which did seem the cut off. Maybe for over the winter. I think it may take some long term analysis, which I believe terry was doing.

I think we should leave it to him, and let him determine the merits. Although saying that the source he was taking this from won’t be around much more anyway, I believe?

[discretedata]

Firstly, my sincere thanks to Matron, Pompete, billion, cormack15, elcartero & berkoboy for your messages of support during my absence from the forum.

Following Mom’s funeral on Friday and the scattering of her ashes yesterday morning I hope to return to the topic of this thread by the week-end.

I need to get my head down now as Mom passed away without leaving a will and I’ve got a stack of paperwork to get through before I return to work on Thursday.

All the best,

Terry.

[discretedata]

In view of the latest news from horseracebase

(please see link below)

I’ve come to the conclusion that any attempt to revive this thread and post selections based on the original concept is going to be a waste of time and effort.

http://horseracingstudy.blogspot.com/2010/10/one-headache-overcome.html

Hopefully when horseracebase have their new ratings fully functional I’ll be able to do some research and come up with something along the same lines as my original idea.

[Nathan Hughes]

Very sorry to read about your Mom Terry.

Best wishes with horsebaserace, hopefully you’ll make a success with their new ratings aswell….

Charles Darwin to conquer the World

[Oasisdreamer]

Non-working day for me so I’ve got a little more spare time today.

I don’t know if you’ll find it helpful or not but I’ve uploaded three spreadsheets to Google Docs this morning which hopefully will illustrate the selection process. A brief description of each step is shown below. Just click on the link beneath each step to view.

Step 1

<a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdGpRNEtnUVQyZzRLWWMwX3JJRzdGRHc&authkey=CKe6oLEJ&hl=en#gid=0
“>https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdGpRNEtnUVQyZzRLWWMwX3JJRzdGRHc&authkey=CKe6oLEJ&hl=en#gid=0

This is the spreadsheet downloaded from HRB after I’ve removed the Irish meetings and sorted the remainder in to track and time order.

Step 2

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdEI3ajd0WVp2dERZTFV3cU5uVmVKd2c&authkey=CKK56f4J&hl=en#gid=0

Here I’ve added added two columns VR and VR RANK. The figures in these columns are generated by a simple formula.

Step 3

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdE1rOXF0bEVSNGxnNWJ1UHVyR29QQWc&authkey=CL6hioYO&hl=en#gid=0

Here I have sorted the data – VR RANK ascending order and VR descending order. The four horses at the top are today’s selections.

Let me know if any of the links don’t work or if you have any other queries.

All the best.

Hi,

With some time on my hands last night I came across this interesting thread based on the HRB ratings. I’m keen to see if there is some value in the system based on the current ratings which can be viewed in HRB.

I have a question on Step 2 above.

Does anyone know the formula for generating the VR RANK?

When I downloaded the Step 2 spreadsheet the cells are values as opposed to formulae. If I can "see" the formulae it will be easy to copy across to another excel file and save a load of time. I did todays VR RANK manually.

For test purposes here are todays top 4 qualifiers.

time track cardno horse_name VR
17:00:00 Kempton 3 Missionaire (USA) 8.715949289
15:50:00 Lingfield 1 Efistorm 8.627441315
14:10:00 Southwell 4 Spot The Ball (IRE)8.626037099
16:00:00 Kempton 4 By Invitation (USA)8.38698825

Thanks in advance.

[Oasisdreamer]

Well Beginners luck or otherwise today but 2 winners out of 4 selections above…….. @ 13/8 and 11/4 (less a rule 4 deduction) at BOG prices when the message was posted = PROFIT

The other 2 selections have their excuses.

Efistorm has never won over 7f at the age of 11 and Missionaire drifted right out to 16/1 so someone obviously knew more about the horse’s chance than I.

A few things to conclude:

When does a system become a selection method? – i.e based on above I would have binned Efistorm.

One of the posters above mentioned that the selections over VR 10 appear to perform best. Therefore is backing the top 4 every day the way to go? What if all 4 selections have a VR less than 10 like today? Is this a no bet day? On other days there may be say 5/6 selections with VR above 10 – should I limit my selections that day to the top 4 just because I’ve hit my limit. I think you can see where I am going with this one…..

What if 2 selections in a race have VR above 10? Are these "better" selections than say a horse like today with VR of 8.7? Then again backing 2 selections in a race obviously means greater outlay but better chance of return.

Should I compare the VR of each horse vs the total VR for the race (add all VR’s together), convert to %’s, then compare against the betting market to identify value selections.

Food for thought…….I’ll hopefully play around with HRB tonight and add in some additional variables (class, distance, trainerform for example).

If anyone can help with my formula question above then much appreciated. Just not had the time today to crack it.

[discretedata]

Oasisdreamer

I’m assuming that your spreadsheet looks something like this:-

Cell A1 = time
Cell B1 = track
Cell C1 = horse
Cell D1 = prize
Cell E1 = total

and that you’ve already sorted the runners by time (ascending), then track (ascending) and finally total (descending).

It appears you’ve already done something similar, but I’ll cover it anyway: label cell F1 ‘

VR

‘ and cell G1 ‘

VR rank

‘.

Than in cell F2 enter the formula

=IF(E2 < > "";E2/(D2/100);"") and copy the formula down to the last row containing data

In cell G2 enter the formula

=SUMPRODUCT(–(A$2:A$331=A2);–(F2 < F$2:F$331))+1

You’ll notice that the cell G2 formula I’ve shown indicates that row 331 was the last row in the spreadsheet that contained any data. You can change this number to suit the number of runners you have data for on any particular day then simply copy the formula down to the last row with data.

One final thing. I’ve put spaces before, in between and after the less than and greater than characters in the first formula and before and after the less than character in the second formula. This was purely a precaution to make sure they displayed correctly in my post. You should remove them if you copy and paste the formulas in to your spreadsheet otherwise they may not work.

Hope this helps.

[Author]

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