Horse/Jockey for courses

[binocularman]

Hello all ,
i would just like to share with you a system / i use when finding my selections.
We have all heard of " horses for courses " and as with horses – jockeys and trainers prefer certain courses too. Seb Sanders being a prime example when riding at Brighton .
So when i pick up the racing post and look at the top course jockeys / trainers i only will pick out a selection where the jockey and trainer of that selection are BOTH IN THE TOP 10 at that particular course ( percentage wise and NOT by amount of wins ) .
You will find that this eliminates quite a few runners from each race and can be used in conjunction with any other system you wish to use .
Im not teaching you to suck eggs but it is amazing how many punters dont even look at this crucial factor but more concerned solely on the horses form…………………..good luck , Lance

[Anonymous]

Hi Lance,

Welcome to the forum. The "Signposts" page in Pacing Post gives this sort of information, as I’m sure you’re aware, but, as a personal preference, I’ve always been a bit wary of any approach based primarily on statistics, for the reasons usually advanced, such as I worry that they give a view of what has already happened, but don’t really help with what might happen infuture. Besides, I get them rammed down my throat at work (civil servant), so I’m probably a bit jaundiced.

One immediate worry I’d have, though, is that your system doesn’t seem to be giving any particular "edge". I’d be concerned, for instance, that the horses you select using it might be too short in price, compared to their real chance of winning.

How’s your system going, though? I suppose the proof is in the pudding, and if you’re in profit with it, good for you.

Regards,

Brian

[binocularman]

Hi Brian ,
yes , you are probably correct in that my selections are not good value compared to others , though that is something i consider when actually finalising my selections. The jockeys / trainers though must of had at least 25 rides/runners at the course …which i failed to mention and again out of these i will select from the 10 top jocks/trainers rides/runners from these ( percentage wise ) ….so sometimes you may get value.
For instance sometimes you may get an average jockey who has a good strike rate at a meeting compared to the tops jocks.
Lets take a look at CHESTER ( sunday 2nd ) tomorrow for an example :
Now a jockey there which you wouldnt automatically think was a top jockey at the course is J P GUILLAMBERT . He has won on 12 out of his 61 rides there ( roughly 20 percent ).
So i will now have a look at GUILLAMBERTS rides and if he is riding for a top trainer at the course then i will consider that as a selection .

So lets look at his rides :
He has only 2 rides being
GLENRIDDING and VEROON and both are trained by James GIVEN .

GIVEN has had 6 winners out of 27 runners here and again is in the top 10 trainers there tomorrow with runners ( again you would not autimatically assume this ).

So i would consider on backing both horses but i would want a few more pointers before i would back these :
In this case i have

GLENRIDDING : only course and distance winner in the field
decent weight
prize money good
has won on soft good ground

VEROON : 1ST time cheek pieces
distance to suit
shown abilty on ground

So my conclusion would and will be this :

I shall stake £20 each way on GLENRIDDING at 16-1 ( bet 365 )
I shall stake £10 each way on VEROON at 14-1 ( betfair )
and i shall do a £5 each way double.

So thats just an example of the value you can get …..now the hard part …waiting for them to win .

Thanks for welcomning me to the site Brian and good luck to you too , all the best , binocularman

p.s Dougy Costello has had an amazing 12 winners out of 14 rides at market rasen , so his mounts there must be considered

[billion]

G’day Lance,

Have just found this thread and cannot understand why there has not been any postings for almost two months.

I certainly agree with your ideas and comments and would like to expand upon them if I can.

Time is against me this afternoon but I just wanted to bring the idea back to the fore prior to injecting some additional thoughts.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

G’day Lance,

I have tried 3 times to get this posting off and each time lost it because a poor internet connection so excuse me if this short and sweet.

A bit late in the season to buy, however I did, from WH Smith to experiment with for next year and have turned up some real gems.

Sept 7 Poppanan 25/1 and Fortunes Fire at 40/1 on the same day, then a week later Bathwick Gold at 66/1.

I will be 1st in line to get next years updated versions

Book 1 TRAINERS Flat Statistics 2009 at £16.99 as much info as you could ever want on trainers.

Book 2 a little gem at £6.99 called Racing & Football Outlook FLAT RACING guide 2009. Just like the first book all the exciting info is at the back, Jockey’s, Trainers performances track by track, percentages and level stakes.

Combine info from both books and turn up some

REAL WINNERS

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

As a follow on from the previous post may I also suggest a couple of snippetts extracted from said books: –

September.

John Gosden shows the greatest level stakes profit for this month since 2004 +92
Saeed Bin Suroor has the best win percentage at 25% 96 winners from 384 runners

October

Wm Haggas is top man at level stakes +67.94 over the same period.
Saeed Bin Suroor is once again top man with a 23.5 % strike rate, 94 from 405 runners

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Wm Haggas

has the best record for level stake profit at Ascot so I wonder how SHAMANDAR will do in the 3.10 today. At such a small price I will give it a miss but

Poppy N’penny

his other runner with young Kirsty on board looks worth a punt at

80/1

in the same race.

M. Jarvis

is the main man at Haydock today and 2 of his 3 runners are interesting for me.

SHELFAH

in the 2.10 at

9/2

and

PETOUGG

in the 3.20 looks an each way bet at

16/1

the one I shall miss is Atlaal at such a short price

It would be nice if a profit is made today so that it would illustrate the value of these two great little books

Billy's Outback Shack

[Author]

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