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As I said earlier in the week I had a bundle on him and I am delighted he won the way he did.
But boy are you getting carried away……..He is not the first horse to win a Hennessy like that and run moderately in the Gold Cup……..It must be more than 20 years since a horse won both……Burrough Hill Lad…..I believe was the last …If I am wrong I apologies too tired to look it up.
There was spate of 6 real good horses in arow carrying big weights who won it because there wasn’t the alternatives back then………..Kauto won the alternatives and the second string won the Hennessy.
Anyway I immediately took half my winnings and bet Kauto again!!! for the Gold Cup not because I thought Denman did anything wrong but because of what he actually beat doing it.
They went no pace in the race and nothing else was travelling at any stage of the race. The most fancied horse falls at the 7th fence.
Denman was brilliant I give you that but look at where the other half decent horses finished.in the race and how quickly they were beaten off. They ran worse than Denman ran good if that makes sense.
Lets have another race tomorow and take the first 4 runners home……..same weights what price would Kauto Star be to beat that lot 1/2 1/3 maybe 1/5 ? None of those 3 behind would live with him or Exotic Dancer, for that matter, at the weights. They are Perth and Market Rasen winners and were miles out their class…….None of the real dangers in the race ran to form or raised a gallop.
Just because it’s the Hennessy doen’t make it a good race
In the light of day the form just isn’t up to Gold Cup Standards and Coral going 6/4 fav about him based on that is an insult to human intellegence. I am not saying Denman is not a gold Cup horse they would be mad not to run him. Personally I just think he’ll be very hard pushed to beat Kauto.
I loved Sam the Bam’s comment about Ruby having a difficult choice to make now……….in a pigs eye he does………If he gets off Kauto Star it will be the biggest shock in my racing life……..absolutely no chance.
Someone mentioned Mill House…well if Denman is the new Mill House then Kauto is the new Arkle and we all know what happened then.
On today’s form alone, I’d put him right between Exotic Dancer and Kauto Star. What I’d be worried about if I were Clive Smith or Robert Ogden would be PFN’s insistence that the horse is very hard to get right and that he’ll come on for the run. If that’s still the case then we could be looking at a very special animal!
Friggo PN has a bit of the Tony Blairs about him when it come’s to the press and choses his words very carefully………….he said he was very hard to get fit……….he did not say he wasn’t fit………..I was told a week ago he was spot on fit for this and thought I had been put away when I read that comment. Name a horse that doesn’t come on for the run…..man was just playing with words……..as I said earlier in the week he would need to be mad to send a good horse like him to the Hennessy needing a run……..that was the one they wanted and you can take that to the bank.
I appreciate that he won’t tell the public the whole story, but I read those quotes I gave out in his stable tour over a month ago before Denman was even aimed at the Hennessey, the Charlie Hall was the objective at the time. So to believe he was attempting to save his price for Newbury so Harry Findlay could get on would be a long shot.
I guess the question I ask myself is whether I think Kauto Star would be capable of giving 19lbs to Dream Alliance, and beat him head-in-chest. The answer is an emphatic yes, imo.
Id.
The way I look at it is this.
Given the manner of victory today, how far ahead of his mark was Denman today? He could be called the winner pretty much all the way round, looked in a different class to his rivals and won very easily by 11 lengths. That unquestionably makes him at least a stone ahead of his 161 rating for me and I think 180+ is a fair guess as to what what we saw today. Dream Alliance may not be a household name and your comment above sounds convincing at first glance, but there is every reason to think the horse may still have been well handicapped (a comment that also applies to the 3rd Character Building) and I’m really not in a rush to try to find reasons to knock Denman’s performance today.
For me, Denman is the horse that everyone claimed Best Mate was – an exceptional jumper with an engine .
That’s fair enough TDK, and I don’t really have any truck with your argument. We both think it was a great performance, and the only thing I really take issue with is the suggestion that it de-facto makes Denman the one to beat in the Gold Cup.
In terms of the respective ratings we hang on the horse, again I’m not doubting it was a high-class performance, I just don’t have it quite as high-class as you do.
As ridiculous as it may sound, I think conditions probably suited Denman much better than most of today’s runners. He is a grand stamp of a horse – built to carry big weights – and ground verging on Heavy was certainly in his favour. Again, that is not to suggest that it was anything other than excellent effort from the horse. I just think there are just enough questions marks (mainly to do with the ground) to prevent me hanging a 180+ rating on it.
For me, Denman is the horse that everyone claimed Best Mate was – an exceptional jumper with an engine .
And he’s shown it in a handicap.
Sadly we probably won’t get to know how much better Denman is than today unless he runs in the race again next year. Level weight conditions races just aren’t designed for horses to run to 180+ ratings.
Sadly we probably won’t get to know how much better Denman is than today unless he runs in the race again next year. Level weight conditions races just aren’t designed for horses to run to 180+ ratings.
Unless they’re called Kauto Star and it’s the BetFair Chase.
Fair enough.
Whatever rating one wants to “hang” on the performance, I think if we are being honest, everyone who watched that performance (Nicholls, Findlay and Barber included) will have been surprised at the manner in which Denman won today. If he didn’t run to 180 then it is probably only because the quality of the opposition didn’t allow the weights and measures boys to award that rating.
I reckon you could have chucked in Exotic Dancer, Aces Four, Racing Demon, Taranis et al at their respective weightss and he would have hammered them as well.
…but that is just my opinion.
As ridiculous as it may sound, I think conditions probably suited Denman much better than most of today’s runners. He is a grand stamp of a horse – built to carry big weights – and ground verging on Heavy was certainly in his favour.
Agreed, and that is really the only angle I can find to question the worth of todays run. Results on soft, holding ground can be misleading and I just wonder whether Denman will mature into one who will be seen to best effect under similar conditions: the big, tough, sound-jumping resolute galloper; devoid of a change of gear, and suited by an extreme test. As such the GC and Kauto Star will prove a different proposition altogether.
Clutching at straws really as that was a mighty performance today, and I don’t have a problem with the worth of the placed horses. Sure, on the figures they don’t do much for the form but they are all young and generally progressive. It’s not a case of Denman out-staying some ageing sluggards.
Nevertheless a difficult performance to rate in cold-light-of-day numbers but until proven otherwise I’m happy to award a tentative 175+ or 175p for Timeformers.
To hell with all that, gut feeling is that Denman delivered an exceptional weight-carrying performance, the like of which hasn’t been seen since the days of Burrough Hill Lad, Desert Orchid and other members of the 180+ club.
Also worth pointing out that the Sun Alliance is a notoriously gruelling test for novices, many of whom have taken a while to recover from the experience. Not so Denman.
When a big, lengthy staying chaser really gets it all together there is nothing else equine to equal the majesty.
On days like these…
Dream Alliance’s position is a head scratcher, but he was possibly open to improvement and all these seem to have run near to their previous marks
Character Building
Madison De Burlais
Knowhere
Juveigneur
Always WainingWhich suggests it was a cracking performance by the winner, and by my reckoning one of about 182 with a couple of big +’s thrown in for good measure
denman was brilliant today but i knew now people would be saying kauto cant improve and denman is open to much more improvement
the only reason people are saying this is because they think kauto has reached his peak from what he achevied last year and that first run of the season was him declineing its rubbish
when they meet i can see denman doing his normall up with the pace running ,kauto cutting through the pack and beating him on the straight and then makeing his signiture blunder at the last and getting away with it,
it would be interesting to know who the stable fancies out of the two im sure we`ll see when ruby deciedes who he wants to rideIf the GC was run in a months time, with none of the main pretagonists running between now and then, my money would be on Denman.
KS may have acceleration and speed but his win last year at March didn’t see him quickening having been galloped into the groud by a horse with an unbelievable engine.
Denman IMHO could be very special.
He didn’t beat a strong field but wow….
That jump at the water was quite spectacular –
Bob Beamon-ish not something we see often enough.
If the GC was run in a months time, with none of the main pretagonists running between now and then, my money would be on Denman.
KS may have acceleration and speed but his win last year at March didn’t see him quickening having been galloped into the groud by a horse with an unbelievable engine.
Denman IMHO could be very special.
He didn’t beat a strong field but wow….
He better start galloping now. The Hennesy is a totally different ball game to the Gold Cup. Winning what looks now like a bad handicap and taking on the best in the country at levels is a world apart.
There have been a lot of good Hennessy winners who came no where near to winning the Gold Cup and only 2 have acheived that since Arkle. Bregawn and Burrough Hill Lad who lumped 12 stone in the race. There have been 5 times that amount who have won the King George V and went on to win the Gold Cup
If one decent horse had even bothered him in the race I would be veiwing it deifferently but as it turned out he beat nothing.
Anyway keep the hype up , get your cash on Denman and push Kauto out in the market…….I’ll be waiting to pounce again.
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