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What’s the maximum field for Saturday?
Not sure?
16 ran when State of Play won
19 when Trabolgan won- Total Posts 17716
What’s the maximum field for Saturday?
24 apparently.
According to the RP, Character Building needs 4 to come out to get a run.
Phew!!!
Despite 11-12, it could be that Denman is still pretty much thrown in – he thrashed Mr Pointment by a country mile two races ago, and the latter looked pretty decent in the Becher on Sunday. Two horses that I think could be intersting are Sir Rembrandt, who I’ve never rated at all, but looked really good at Cheltenham on his first fun for Victor Dartnall, and Hard Act To Follow – the form looks a bit on the Lord Transcend side, but he’s only got 10-3, and could be interesting.
Overall, I reckon this could be an absolutely cracking race – really looking forward to Saturday!!
Darren – AngloGerman
Despite 11-12, it could be that Denman is still pretty much thrown in – he thrashed Mr Pointment by a country mile two races ago, and the latter looked pretty decent in the Becher on Sunday.
Mr Pointment’s Becher win is clearly a boost to the credentials of Denman but I tend to exercise a deal of caution when collateral form considerations include the interpretation of – and reliance on – that gained over the National fences; they remain a unique test and in any case, if size and scope mean anything, MP was always a likely type to relish such a challenge.
Despite 11-12, it could be that Denman is still pretty much thrown in – he thrashed Mr Pointment by a country mile two races ago, and the latter looked pretty decent in the Becher on Sunday.
Mr Pointment’s Becher win is clearly a boost to the credentials of Denman but I tend to exercise a deal of caution when collateral form considerations include the interpretation of – and reliance on – that gained over the National fences; they remain a unique test and in any case, if size and scope mean anything, MP was always a likely type to relish such a challenge.
7 am here, took me about an hour to work out what you were on a bout but I worked it out
……you think if a horse runs well at Aintree the form can be dodgy as the fences are a few "s bigger……that makes a lot of sense 
He needs 3 to come out, but if getting the chance to run Hard Act To Follow is surely worth a few quid at 16/1 and bigger.
Howard Johnson’s are seemingly either straight and ready to run on their reappearance, or destined to blow out big style, so there’s no middle ground for this fella. He stood no chance for a horse of his experience behind Black Jack Ketchum at Aintree last year, but looked every inch a top class chaser when strolling in on his debut at Wetherby. A 13 month absence is obviously a worry, but he’s clearly an animal of some potential and the 23lb he will get from Denman is mighty useful,
7 am here, took me about an hour to work out what you were on a bout but I worked it out
……you think if a horse runs well at Aintree the form can be dodgy as the fences are a few "s bigger……that makes a lot of sense Why then does the National course tend to produce a regular supply of course specialists who don’t – on the figures – reproduce that form elsewhere; and why, time and again, do horses with National course form have a habit of reproducing it?
It’s not black-and-white admittedly, as all races over the National fences are valuable; hence trainers may prepare their horses by giving them a number of ‘easys’ over normal fences, which may put a false emphasis on the seemingly improved form at Aintree.
Mr Pointment is unexposed so it’s perhaps daft to assume he won’t frank his Becher form and continue to progress over regulation fences; but in my opinion a degree of caution is best exercised. That’s all.
Sorry about the polysyllables
7 am here, took me about an hour to work out what you were on a bout but I worked it out
……you think if a horse runs well at Aintree the form can be dodgy as the fences are a few "s bigger……that makes a lot of sense Why then does the National course tend to produce a regular supply of course specialists who don’t – on the figures – reproduce that form elsewhere; and why, time and again, do horses with National course form have a habit of reproducing it?
It’s not black-and-white admittedly, as all races over the National fences are valuable; hence trainers may prepare their horses by giving them a number of ‘easys’ over normal fences, which may put a false emphasis on the seemingly improved form at Aintree.
Mr Pointment is unexposed so it’s perhaps daft to assume he won’t frank his Becher form and continue to progress over regulation fences; but in my opinion a degree of caution is best exercised. That’s all.
Fully agree with Drone here.
Races over the National fences do produce form that cannot be reliably taken at face value over regular courses.
I think the official handicapper recognises this and adjusts marks taking previous over the bigger obstacles into account.
I suppose that so many participants in such as the Becher/Grand Sefton fail to complete or make serious errors knocking them out of the race to all intents and purposes (more so than in regular chases) that some distortion of form is inevitible.
Not taking anything away from MP’s impressive win but I would exercise a degree of caution until I see his next race.
Races over the National fences do produce form that cannot be reliably taken at face value over regular courses.
I think the official handicapper recognises this and adjusts marks taking previous over the bigger obstacles into account.It’s certainly happened well into the recent past, at least – didn’t Amberleigh House get his mark whacked up a few pounds for his last few tilts at the National, compared to his OR for elsewhere?
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
- Total Posts 17716
Personally, I believe that the current Aintree fences are now much fairer and more representative than the old style fences that so suited the quirks of such as Red Rum.
It is rare nowadays for a big priced horse to win the National (Red Marauder’s win in desperate conditions excepted) and, as I pointed out some time ago, a fair profit would have been made from backing blind the first 10 in the betting over recent years.
Most of the horses that win or place in the race have usually shown at least similar form at high level elsewhere, and even for the ones that haven’t, such as Amberleigh House, there is usually a reason other than just the nature of the course.
In AH’s case for instance, ever since his win in the 2001 Becher, and bearing in mind his trainer, the horse had surely been trained for the Aintree stamina tests, his only other run since over the Becher 3m 3f or further being his Red Square Vodka 15th, when he was almost certainly being prepared for his 03 National tilt, a race where finished 3rd.
Like most other courses, high class races at Aintree are generally contested by high class horses, and I see nothing suspect with the previous form of either Mr Pointment, or the only other horse concerned in the finish, Bewley’s Berry, who also ran his race on Sunday.Could it be horse like Rummy were trained with one specific target in mind and basically are no where near fit when racing elsewhere?
Anyway I just read PN’s comments on Denman saying the horse has to run somewhere. and emphasising how hard he is to get fit,
Doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence and you would think the horse has no chance……exact opposite what I was told only a week ago.
Personally I take everything he says to the press with a pinch of salt, and as I bet the horse I hope he’s blowing hot air
Could it be horse like Rummy were trained with one specific target in mind and basically are no where near fit when racing elsewhere?
The campaign strategy for Rummy’s National years were similar but changes in circs. applied at times.
I’ve looked at his record from start of season up to Aintree for the years that he contested the race.72/73 season
Won 5 from 8 starts. Presumably he needed to get high enough in the handicap to get in with a racing weight. His 5 wins were consecutive in the autumn and when he tackled tougher races in the new year he did not win until the big day.73/74 season
Won 4 from 8 starts. He was probably at his best in this season. Won 3 straight chases before his thrilling rematch with Crisp at Doncaster then was 2nd in the Hennessy. Came back with another win, unseated in the Greenall then won National and Scottish National.74/75 season
Won 2 from 6 starts
Probably getting slaughtered by the Handicapper as a result of his brilliant previous season he struggled a bit.
Still managed to beat Arthur Stephenson’s good chaser Scout at Ayr and win the Haydock National Trial. Lighter campaign suggests injuries were also a factor.75/76 season.
Won 0 from 8 starts
Firmly in the grip of the handicapper and arguably tiring a little of conceding lumps around park courses, his best performances were his 3rd to Bula in a set weights contest at Haydock (his other favourite track) and the gallant 2nd to Rag Trade in the big ‘un.76/77 season.
Won 1 from 7 starts.
Similar to previous season but managed to win a small race at Carlisle. repeated his 3rd to Bula in the Sundew at Haydock where he continued to run with credit in the big chases there. As we know he won his 3rd National in this season.
He later finished down the field in the Scottish National and had a couple of runs the next season to round off his magnificent career.Conclusions;
He seemed to have a spring and autumn campaign every year. In the years I’ve covered he never raced after 01 Dec and never returned before 31 Jan. Mostly went "pot-hunting" in the autumn (73/74 was an exception) and ran in tough races in the spring which brought him to peak fitness on the day.
His connections would not mollycoddle him in readiness for the National. It was a small stable and he had to earn his keep
After the National he usually had a go at either the Scottish National or Whitbread, (he also ran in the Scottish race in 72 having not ran at Aintree)He was tough as they came and not short of a bit of class also. All this from a horse who made his (won/dead-heat) racecourse debut in the April of his 2YO season (at Aintree, where else).
Abragante up 14lbs for beating some fairly exposed sorts. It’s another Lucifer Bleu – Racing Post Chase type scenario for me.
Knowhere (EW) for me.
Could it be horse like Rummy were trained with one specific target in mind and basically are no where near fit when racing elsewhere?
The campaign strategy for Rummy’s National years were similar but changes in circs. applied at times.
I’ve looked at his record from start of season up to Aintree for the years that he contested the race.72/73 season
Won 5 from 8 starts. Presumably he needed to get high enough in the handicap to get in with a racing weight. His 5 wins were consecutive in the autumn and when he tackled tougher races in the new year he did not win until the big day.73/74 season
Won 4 from 8 starts. He was probably at his best in this season. Won 3 straight chases before his thrilling rematch with Crisp at Doncaster then was 2nd in the Hennessy. Came back with another win, unseated in the Greenall then won National and Scottish National.74/75 season
Won 2 from 6 starts
Probably getting slaughtered by the Handicapper as a result of his brilliant previous season he struggled a bit.
Still managed to beat Arthur Stephenson’s good chaser Scout at Ayr and win the Haydock National Trial. Lighter campaign suggests injuries were also a factor.75/76 season.
Won 0 from 8 starts
Firmly in the grip of the handicapper and arguably tiring a little of conceding lumps around park courses, his best performances were his 3rd to Bula in a set weights contest at Haydock (his other favourite track) and the gallant 2nd to Rag Trade in the big ‘un.76/77 season.
Won 1 from 7 starts.
Similar to previous season but managed to win a small race at Carlisle. repeated his 3rd to Bula in the Sundew at Haydock where he continued to run with credit in the big chases there. As we know he won his 3rd National in this season.
He later finished down the field in the Scottish National and had a couple of runs the next season to round off his magnificent career.Conclusions;
He seemed to have a spring and autumn campaign every year. In the years I’ve covered he never raced after 01 Dec and never returned before 31 Jan. Mostly went "pot-hunting" in the autumn (73/74 was an exception) and ran in tough races in the spring which brought him to peak fitness on the day.
His connections would not mollycoddle him in readiness for the National. It was a small stable and he had to earn his keep
After the National he usually had a go at either the Scottish National or Whitbread, (he also ran in the Scottish race in 72 having not ran at Aintree)He was tough as they came and not short of a bit of class also. All this from a horse who made his (won/dead-heat) racecourse debut in the April of his 2YO season (at Aintree, where else).
I was being a bit flippant and wrongly used Rummy as an example.
To say the form over Aintree fences doesn’t hold up or is suspect I think is wrong. Look at the horses that ran behind Red Rum himself like Crisp for example he was as consistant and genuine as you could ever wish to have in a racehorse. True the odd horse runs better than he has before, as Aintree perhaps gets his attention and wakes the fooker up, but the majority of horses who are good elswhere a handle the course well.I just can’t see how anyone can dismiss form because the race was run at Aintree’s National course. Look back the winners of the other big race…Spartan Missile, Suny Bay, Earth Summit spring to mind
As for Rummy the only time I ever backed him was at Ayr when he won the Scotish Grand national………..couldn’t belive the price of him that day…….sure he was something like 4/1 or it could have been 6/4 Whatever won very easily.
They definately never mollycoddled him they had no choice as you say……….don’t think they had another decent horse in the yard unless you know of one. They used to say Ginger couldn’t train a pig to be dirty and Rummy trained himself………Wonder what they are saying now Donald having won the national? Must be the sea breeze.
With the ground the way it is, I would pull out Denman if I owned him. The Hennessy is a tough enough race off top weight as it is without bottoming a genuine Gold Cup contender for the rest of the season.
It’s different for other horses where this race is probably their main target.
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