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Would this be the same RPR crowd who gave Master Minded 170 for the Connaught Chase, reet?
That’s the first I’ve heard of this. Not to de-rail matters, but how the hell did they manage that without granting Mahogany Blaze the best part of a stone’s worth of improvement?
- Total Posts 17716
Grassy
As you know, holes can be picked in any ratings – what is harder to question is the career form of 2 horses as exposed as Denman and Kauto Star, of which RPR’s are reasonably representative
P,Nicholls knows that Denman cannot give near on 2 stone to What a friend,his stable companion,who as a 2nd season chaser with very decent novice form is thrown in,
And thats why he was reduced to tears when not only did Denman give him the weight and a convincing beating,but produced the best performance on a racecourse i have seen in a very long time!Humble pie leaves a sickly after taste!I would eat it again to see a performance like that!I still cant believe the Denman that ran last year at Kempton was actually him!That horse was 2 stone lighter in weight and was a different colour!!
Grassy
As you know, holes can be picked in any ratings – what is harder to question is the career form of 2 horses as exposed as Denman and Kauto Star, of which RPR’s are reasonably representative
What are the Timeform marks for each, reet? I’d suggest that they are even more representative, and I’m pretty sure that they would show more than one 180+ performance over 3m from Kauto Star.
I’m not looking for an argument here – I agree that Denman would be better suited in a soft-ground Gold Cup. I just don’t think that such a position is propped-up by dint of what RPR thinks of each horse.
I would have said Mahogany Blaze was just as exposed as either Denman or Kauto Star, but apparently not.
Would this be the same RPR crowd who gave Master Minded 170 for the Connaught Chase, reet?
That’s the first I’ve heard of this. Not to de-rail matters, but how the hell did they manage that without granting Mahogany Blaze the best part of a stone’s worth of improvement?
They apparently had MB on 156 before the race, and upped him 6lbs to 162, Friggo.
The starting mark is all wrong, imo, hence the inflated revised mark. I had MB rated 151 going into the race and 156 coming out of it. I gave him the 5lbs for essentially being towed into the race by MM and WC. Timeform would also appear to have rated it through MB, but take a dimmer view of what mark he actually ran to (152, I think – it’s posted elsewhere).
I’ve no idea how RPR came to their rating, but to award 162 to MB, they have added a rate of improvement that seems somewhat unlikely given the horses profile. They appear to have gone to extreme lengths to try and prop-up a 170 rating for Master Minded. Quite what their motivation for this might be, is open to speculation.
It is interesting that Denman was rated 180p by Timeform in Chasers & Hurdlers, after his Gold Cup win. Had they chosen to rate Denman (in today’s Hennessy) on that rating; he’d have weight adjusted figure of 189 (not 184+). Top rated and 7lbs in front of both Barber Shop 182+ and Niche Market 182. The distances were 3 1/2 lengths (to What A Friend), 3 3/4 lengths (to Niche Market) and short head to Barber Shop.
So the latter two were both beaten a touch more than 7 lengths. Don’t know what Timeform are going to rate Denman, but I suspect this performance is a pound or two better than his Gold Cup win.That still puts him a couple of pounds behind Kauto Star, but there is still a question mark whether KS is as good this term. The "decider" next march is not really a decider. Just a race to see who’s best this season.
Oh and I agree with Clive, do we have to have the "he is no Arkle" posts, every time a chaser produces a great performance. May be he isn’t, but change the f…… record! Or should that be CD?
Gizza job Kieran!
[b:vgfgwcys]Denman now rated 181 by Timeform![/b:vgfgwcys]
Value Is EverythingGinger
Of course the ground makes a difference (RP going allowances show that Denman’s Gold Cup would have been run around 2 seconds faster than Kauto’s on identical ground, rather than the actual 3 seconds slower) in that softer ground puts more emphasis on stamina.
In his career, Denman has put up 3 180+ (RPR) performances – all at distances in excess of 3m; Kauto Star has put up 7 – just 1 of them at over 3m.
Go figure which one soft ground will suit best in the next GC!
Reet,
I don’t have quite the distain of Grass when it comes to RPR. The Halifax organisation do have the better reputation and fit in with my working out too.It may be that Denman will be better suited to very soft / heavy ground than Kauto Star (in the GC at Cheltenham). It plays to Denman’s strength (stamina). Kauto’s stamina is unproven over that far on very soft. But when do we get very soft ground at the Festival? What I am saying is it needs to be quite a bit softer than Denman’s Gold Cup for Denman to win (if they both run "to form"). As I have shown, the going in Denman’s Gold Cup was not significantly softer than Kauto Star’s; judged by all the races those days (not just one). Timeform rate the going as good-soft on both days. In "soft" (but not very soft or heavy) I’d still favour Kauto, if I think they are both in form.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Grassy
I’m no apologist for RPR.
I’d agree that Materminded’s rating is wrong but – seeing as you started this particular ball rolling – any compiler that has Fame And Glory as the second best 3yo of the flat season isn’t perfect either.Ginger
quote]Not sure the ground makes a significant difference to who is going to win come March.“It may be that Denman will be better suited to very soft / heavy ground than Kauto Star”
Make your mind up, ffs!
Grassy
I’m no apologist for RPR.
I’d agree that Materminded’s rating is wrong but – seeing as you started this particular ball rolling – any compiler that has Fame And Glory as the second best 3yo of the flat season isn’t perfect either.You might want to check your facts Reet.
Sea The Stars 140
Rip Van Winkle 134
Fame and Glory 133What a day to be at Newbury yesterday.
When he came into the parade ring his name was on everyones lips – "There’s Denman" "Denman looks well" "Denman …"
When he appeared in front of the stands the crowd clapped.
When they want past the stands first time the crowd shouted "come on Denman"
When he jumped the last the crowd cheered in anticipation.
When he passed the finishing line the crowd was deafening, absolutely ecstatic. I have never heard, seen or felt anything like it on a racecourse.
Ratings, ratings, blah blah blah.
He was a superstar yesterday.
Stop knocking ratings. There are loads of impressive performances every year, and it is only ratings that evaluate how good they were.
What a day to be at Newbury yesterday.
When he came into the parade ring his name was on everyones lips – "There’s Denman" "Denman looks well" "Denman …"
When he appeared in front of the stands the crowd clapped.
When they want past the stands first time the crowd shouted "come on Denman"
When he jumped the last the crowd cheered in anticipation.
When he passed the finishing line the crowd was deafening, absolutely ecstatic. I have never heard, seen or felt anything like it on a racecourse.
Ratings, ratings, blah blah blah.
He was a superstar yesterday.
Thank you
You’ve just said what I wanted to say. Stuff the ratings, I’m still marvelling at that performance yesterday. I’m a Kauto Star fan and have never cheered Denman on before but I had the same tears in my eyes at the end of that race as any Denman fan.
I don’t know who I want to win the Gold Cup now.
It’s what makes jump racing, stories like that.Thats what he didnt do last season, just bully the entire field, well he almost bullied every horse bar What A Friend, Sam was still pretty motionless when Denman was streching the field right out, looked for all money What A Friend was going to win I thought when he looked all over Denman but Denman just found another gear when What A Friend came to eyeball him and he just took off from the fence, admittely What A Friend lost a lot of ground on the last fence and looked to be making a bit of ground towards the finsih which sould put him in good stead for his future and good things surely will happen for him.
But not being a very big jumps fan, that was just an amazing achievement what I saw from Denman today, was quite spectacular, would be nice if Ruby actually gave Denman a go for the GC next year.
Personally hope he doesnt ride him in the GC……..Love to see AP on him tbh……..Not a great lover of Walsh as a jockey
A long post…
Styles make great fights, and the contrasting styles of Denman and Kauto Star have helped to capture the imagination of the racing public.
Denman – efficent, commanding, straightforward
Kauto Star – ebullient, stylish, unpredictableDenman can certainly take horses out of their comfort zones, given the right conditions. He had his conditions today – the right course and the right ground. He is built to carry weight. The weight was an issue for me, but I was more inclined to worry about his temperament in relation to what he has had to endure these past twelve to eighteen months. Trying to give weight to several unexposed, improving types was a hard task -impossible if he wasn’t back to his very best.
Fourteen lengths seperated the first six home and there was another sixteen lengths back to the seventh. Not what you would expect from a competitve handicap.
Thirty-seven lengths seperated the first ten home in 2007. Sixty-three lengths seperated the same number this time. In my opinion, this was a quality renewal and easily superior to that of 2007.
The field were well and truly strung out by the end, with most off the bridle before Denman actually reached top gear. What to make of this, I don’t quite know yet.
One of the key attributes which seperate the good from the great is the ability to travel. Once Denman gets into a rhythm, weight becomes less of an issue. His jumping and forceful tactics cause others to make mistakes and, quite literally, break their spirit. Jump racing is all about rhythm and on soft ground around Newbury, Denman is a machine. Still, Look at how well Barbers Shop and What A Friend travelled. If that had been Kauto Star in the same position turning in, he would have found another gear.
This leads me onto Kauto Star. Ted Walsh said after his Gold Cup success last season that he travelled like a horse who had won two Tingle Creeks.
Sandown presents the biggest jumping test in the country, in my opinion. There’s no hiding place over two miles around there and if you have a horse that can win a Tingle Creek (beating a future Champion Chase winner in the process) there’s not a staying chaser in the land that can take you out of your comfort zone.
I’ve been present at the last two renewals of the Gold Cup and there was a huge difference between the Kauto Star I saw this year and in 2008. He looked far happier in the prelims this year and he duly showed it on the racecourse.
That was the finest exhibition of steeplechasing I’ve ever seen and if Kauto Star jumps like that next year, Denman will be unable to shake him and Kauto will put the race to bed between the final two fences.
Of course, one can argue that Kauto Star was yet another victim of Denman forcing mistakes from his rivals in 2008, but Kauto never looked happy that day. Yet he still dragged himself round the second circuit and would have got within four lengths of Denman but for clattering the last. Regardless of what many beleive, Denman never broke him.
I said afterwards that it will be interesting to see how Denman is ridden the following year. Denman was out on his feet at the end and a Kauto Star operating at 100% would have his measure the following season if Denman was ridden in the same way, but go too slow and you play to Kauto’s strengths. Despite not being himself, he only had seven lengths to make up.
Conversely, Kauto Star will never again put in the kind of performance that won him the race last season. It was beautiful. It was, quite literally, perfect. Denman, arguably not at his best and ridden with restraint, has thirteen lengths to make up.
Kauto Star is the better horse, in my opinion. Kempton will tell us if he’s the same horse. No reason to think why he shouldn’t be – he will not exactly be an OAP as a 10YO.
If both turn up at Cheltenham at the peak of their powers on genuine good-soft ground, Kauto Star will secure his hat-trick.
A lot can happen between now and then, though.
Personally thought they rode Denman to Kautos strengths last year……He is never gonna do Kauto for speed but at no time did they attempt to kick like they did the year he won it and yesterday. if you have a top form Denman and a Top form Kauto in the GC then Denman IMHO will win every time diito Kauto round Kempton
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