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THE TIN MAN 8/1
Return to form last time with a easy win i still feel he is a group one horse no doubt in my mind he can win this and think he will do it.
I backed Quiet Reflection a while back for this and she has been targeted for this race not that it always turns out that they run but hopefully the break will refresh her and she’ll go again. She’s done nothing wrong this year and has been improving. Limato was just over two lengths clear of her in the July Cup and that was on going that would of suited Limato and was said to be a bit of a negative for QR. She has course form and beat Donjuan Triumphant at the course with that one running a cracker in the Prix Maurice De Gheest at the weekend. I love the way she travels in her races and has been one of the highlights of the season for me.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
It looks odds on that Limato will not be heading to Haydock. Henry Candy thinks it
will come too soon for him after his York run. I’m sorry he wont be lining up, but
have to admit it doesn’t do my selection for the race any harm.I bet SIGNS OF BLESSING a couple of nights back at 10/1 with
Boylesports, and I put him up in the ante post competition. Boylesports have
adjusted that to 8/1, but I’m surprised to see William Hill still stand him at
10/1, I doubt that will last long.He ran a cracker of a race in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Ascot back in June
behind Twilight Son, just being caught at the death and going down by about a
neck. He’s liable to come up against Twilight son again, who is liable to be
vying for favourite with Quiet Reflection. The Tin Man was about 5 lengths further
back in that race.He was impressive in the Group 1 Larc Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville earlier
this month, where he won as he liked and was never really challenged. He is right at
the top of his form at the moment, and I can’t see him not being placed at the very
least, but I think he can win this. I think that the 10/1 with Hills is a very decent
bet, and I don’t think it will last too long with Limato almost certain to miss this.A lot of the entries prefer softer going (Quiet Reflection, Twilight Son, Brando, Signs of Blessing) means it’s quite hard to have an antepost bet in this-the forecast looks reasonable but could easily change come the day of the race. That said I may side with The Tin Man as he was impressive when winning the Hackwood and has always promised to land a top race since bursting on the scene at Windsor earlier this season. I can see him running well in the Champion Sprint at Ascot in October also, where Fanshawe has a decent record.
William Hill can be very slow to react at times
They were slow to adjust the QE11 when it was declared The Gurkha was out for the yearGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Big G is Signs of Blessing heading to Haydock? I remembered the trainer was quoted as saying
“He will have a break and then go back to Ascot. If all goes well he could go to Hong Kong after that.”
http://www.racingpost.com/news/ajax_home.sd?story=2133242&ac=latest
This was after the French race so plans may of changed
Thanks for that Botchy, I have to admit I missed that report and it doesn’t sound over promising
I was aware of his entry in the Champion Sprint Stakes at Ascot, but I had hoped that the race at Haydock would
have been a nice stepping stone to Ascot. It would have given him a months break since his Deauville run, and
would in turn left a month to prepare for Ascot. That doesn’t seem overly arduous for a sprinter, and with the
Haydock race being a very decent group 1 in it’s own right, with £147,000 in prize money, I thought there was
every chance it would fit in nicely. He had a 2 month break between his Ascot race and that at Deauville, so he’s
hardly been given a hard time of late.Oh well, not a lot I can do now but wait and see. He still is being nibbled at, but that’s maybe by punters
like me, living in blissful ignorance of the trainers commentsLimato entered at todays stage so who can believe what a trainer says ? Tellwright expects the going on the easy side of good so what is the point entering him ? Signs of Blessing not entered up.
Hard to believe that The July Cup form has worked out so badly this year. 19 runs, zero wins, 3 places and 16 unplaced is the record since the race. Obviously several contenders here ran in that race and Limato’s Nunthorpe effort has been the most encouraging in a sea of mediocrity since.
Henry(Hokey Cokey)Candy has been at his normal with Limato, farting around with his entries right up to the last minute, making ante-post backing on this horse akin to Russian Roulette but with five chambers loaded instead of one.
By not running since, one of the sprint finds of the season, Quiet Reflection, has avoided blotting her copy book in the manner of the bulk of those who have been running. The big concern for me is that Quiet Reflection has been winning races that look bloody awful in retrospect. The Sandy Lane has seen no winners since and the name Buratino should be causing shudders when analysing form lines by now. The Commonwealth Cup saw Quiet Reflection a warm 7/4 Fav and looking back it is no wonder, with not one horse winning since and runner up Kachy was thumped in Listed company next time and had a search party sent after him in Group 2 company after that. When you total Quiet Reflection’s last three races up you get 47 runs and ZERO winners since. That’s enough to put me off any favourite.
Twilight Son won last year after improving rapidly on his way to the race. This season has been more hit and miss though and you feel rain will be required for him to lift this prize. I would like to have seen him coming here after a better effort than his last run and he’s no value for me, at the odds, in these circumstances.
Magical Memory is something of a forgotten horse after a two month break. He was third to Twilight Son in this race last season and not beaten far. He started the season with 2 wins before finding old rival Twilight Son too good again next time, albeit that the Candy horse had his ground that day. Next time out, on faster ground, Magical Memory was disappointing behind the other Candy sprinter Limato and in the aftermath Charlie Hills talked about perhaps dropping his horse to 5F, which seemed odd, as he has plied his trade pretty much exclusively at 6F and not without success. I might have been interested in risking Magical Memory each-way if the odds were suitable but at a general 7/1 I see no value after a mediocre show last time.
The Tin Man is one I can’t have here. The form of his two wins is just awful, with just one winner from 41 runs since across the two races. His group 3 win last time just doesn’t look like it was up to much and although the stable are in good form I would also worry if there is cut in the ground, as the times he has been defeated have generally been with soft in the description.
Dancing Star has been a revelation this year and I am still trying to work out how Mr Lupton managed to beat her when conceding her weight. That horse has looked nothing like it since and he cost me money when mowing down the Balding filly when she was running off just 89. Dancing Star is now rated 108 and will effectively meet Mr Lupton on 13 lbs worse terms this time, yet she is 7/1 and he is 25/1. At this stage of her career Dancing Star is well ahead of where Lochsong was but I am not keen on going from Handicap straight into Group 1 class. She is only 7 lbs behind Quiet Reflection on ratings but I can’t back her at 7/1 in this company, it looks very poor value to me. I recall Robert Sangster’s Orojoya finishing 3rd in the Stewards Cup before lifting this race back in 1985 but I was surprised by that one and will be surprised again if Dancing Star can make the swift transition to Group 1.
If the ground is sound and Limato gets the nod he has a huge chance if in the right shape. I don’t like Henry Candy’s titting around with the horse here though. It’s hardly been a masterclass in training watching the career of Limato but he has the most latent talent by some way though.
Looking for something at big odds as a bit of value, a chance is taken with Richard Fahey’s Donjuan Triumphant. I feel that at this trip he is going to need a bit of rain and you have to forgive one poor run this year as well. First time out he was no match for Quiet Reflection but the filly did have the advantage of a prior run coming into that race. Next time up Donjuan Triumphant finished further behind the Burke filly in a race where he was slowly away and somewhat bizarrely then held up to compound the disadvantage. It was about this time last season that Donjuan Triumphant got his act together and started to look useful and he finished runner up in Group 1 company in France last time. The winner there, Signs Of Blessing, was under consideration for this but was not declared and in his absence I just feel Donjuan Triumphant may run well and be an each-way option. He’s not that far off on ratings and has been in the frame nine times from his eleven starts.
It’s a tough race to call in terms of value and many of these look too short for me. It’s a bit out of left field but I feel the Fahey horse at 20/1 and 1/4 the odds is some semblance of value in an affair with plenty of question marks.
Donjuan Triumphant 20/1 Each-Way 1/4 odds a place. Let the rain commence
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
To be honest with you Steve I put up Dancing star on the king’s thread but not with much confidence. Race looks very tricky to me.
I have a sneaky feeling for this DonJuan horse as well. I might follow you in as you seem to have the golden touch at the moment.
To be honest with you Steve I put up Dancing star on the king’s thread but not with much confidence. Race looks very tricky to me.
I have a sneaky feeling for this DonJuan horse as well. I might follow you in as you seem to have the golden touch at the moment.
It’s just a speculative bet on Donjuan Triumphant, I just feel there are question marks at the odds on quite a few of the contenders.
My own run must be due a downturn shortly. I am having a spell that cannot last. Yesterday Miss Icon was my 4th winning Nap in a row and I am 6 from my last 7 bets with Promising beaten a neck at 7/1 in the losing bet.
Limato is sliced in to 2/1 favourite now that he has been confirmed and that’s too skinny for me, but as I said, he could be completely different class if in the mood.
Quiet Reflection is out to 5/1 now.
Magical Memory may have an each-way shout of some appeal now that he is available at 10/1 but I’ve made the call at double those odds and will stick with him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
William Hill can be very slow to react at times
They were slow to adjust the QE11 when it was declared The Gurkha was out for the yearTo be fair, Nathan, everybody’s slow to adjust the QEII, even the captain!
For me Kachy is a big price at 25/1 so i’m on e/w., best recent run was Ascot 6f and last 2 runs at 5f. had a poor run through at Goodwood last time over a sharp short trip had no chance so i think up to 6f. on a galloping track again i’ll have a little on and being drawn next to Limato is a plus.
William Hill can be very slow to react at times
They were slow to adjust the QE11 when it was declared The Gurkha was out for the yearTo be fair, Nathan, everybody’s slow to adjust the QEII, even the captain!
Your comment took a while to sink in Joe, you really reeled me in, I was all at sea.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Any bets here on in will be hit hard by Limato being a non runner as it will happen. Kind of makes it a disappointing betting market for the race. Does anyone know if any bookmakers are betting on whether Limato will be declared a non runner?
I think I have finally lost the plot…I’ve backed Mehronissa e/w!
Would need Limato to be a NR or have a shocker to win the race,but going through the form of the two horses she beat at Pontefract puts her right in the mix with the others as long as the ground doesn’t get too soft (won on g/s).
Trainer in fine form and has supplemented her for the race,which for Ed Vaughan is a bit of a statement in itself.Seems to be an improving in-form filly.Stall 17 not brilliant.
50/1 with Betway,I’m off to get fitted for the straight jacket.
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