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2 50 Haydock – Dutched bet
1 Point Win -ICON DREAM – 15/2 (best odds guaranteed)
1 Point Win – FALLEN IDOL – 22/1 (best odds guaranteed)This is the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes, it is a group 3 race over 1 m 2f 95yards.
3yos have dominated this race. In the 9 runnings since the year 2000 a 3yo has won 7 of the races. Multidimensional won it as a 5yo in 2008 for Henry Cecil, but significantly no 3yos entered the race. So 3yos really do dominate this race and have won 15 of the 23 runnings of this since it was first ran in 1986.
There are just 3 3yos running in this race this year. Due to the over whelming statistic of 3yos winning, I am only looking at the 3yos and have completely ignored the older horses (rightly or wrongly, tomorrow will tell me).
The shortest 3yo in the betting is GREEN MOON, he is 3rd favourite and currently trading at 5/1.
GREEN MOON failed to win in his 2 runs as a 2yo, and was unplaced both times in 2yo maiden company including on soft at Newbury. He then won first time out as a 3yo taking a relatively weak all aged maiden impressively on gd-frm at Leicester over 10f. He then went in on his handicap debut and won from a mark of 82 at Newbury in May. He then progressed greatly again and won a Listed race at Newmarket. Previous winners of the NEwmarket race include Lucarno who went on to win the St Ledger, champion stakes winner – David Junior and Breeders Cup Turf Winner – Red Rocks. Green Moon won the race emphatically without being asked a serious question. That is one serious piece of form. He then ran in the King Edward VII stakes at Royal Ascot over 1m 4 f. He lost his unbeaten 3yo record and could only finish 5th that day. He is a classy animal and is massively respected back at todays trip of 10f. The thing that puts me off with going with this one is the fact that he is a MONTJEU colt and Montjeu offspring generally prefer fast ground. All 3 of Green Moons wins came on gd-fm and he was unplaced in maiden company as a 2yo on soft. So I am worried about the ground and am avoiding him for this reason.FALLEN IDOL is trained by John Gosden and ridden by William Buick. Gosden trained KNIFEBOX to win this race back in 1993 and looks to have a decent chance of landing the race again this year.
Fallen Idol won his maiden on debut at Kemptons polytrack over 7f. He then progressed greatly and landed a class 2 handicap at Sandown over 1mile on good ground from a mark of 89 on his handicap debut. He then took another big step forward on his next race and won in listed company at Sandown. He was then sent to France on his last run in the Prix Paul De Mousacc Group 3 at Chantilly on soft ground. He was out the back early on and was outpaced, however he ran on really well and was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths in the end. He is crying out for this step up in trip and it should bring out even more improvement in him.
He is by PIVOTAL and his offspring relish soft ground and bizarrely perform better in the north of England. So ground conditions should be ideal up north for this horse and he could take the world of beating and Gosden could definitely win this race for the 2nd time.ICON DREAM is the outsider of the field and is the other 3yo. He is trained by David Wachman and ridden by Daryl Holland. He hacked up on his 2yo debut on heavy ground in a Tipperary maiden over 7f, his only race as a 2yo. He has ran 4 times at group 3 level this season. He was beaten 2 lengths in a Leopardstown group 3 on his 1st run of the season on gd-frm. Then was beaten a head in a chester after missing the break in the chester vase. Chester is a notoriously hard track to win from behind, so it was an outstanding performance to go so close after missing the break.
He was then beaten 3 lengths by Jan Vaneer on gd-frm ground over 10f before being upped markedly in trip for the Queens Vase group 3 at Ascot last time, he could only manage 10th of 12 runners but he did not stay the trip.
He is by SADLERS WELLS and there offspring relish cut in the ground. Conditions will be ideal for him at Haydock tomorrow and although this is the complete outsider he must have a genuine chance and looks well up to winning a group 3 especially with cut in the ground.Hopefully the 3yo trend will continue tomorrow and if it does then I have an outstanding chance of landing a very nice bet.
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Disgusting post Carv,
Zoszo thank you for your hard work, I read through and agreed with bits and pieces of it although I think you’ll have a good run for your money in Fallen Idol as I was just about to bet it myself but when you think about it Les Fazzani is going to be allowed to bowl along in front which is dangerous with the ground making it so hard to come from the rear and especially testing for a 3 year old, it also doesn’t help when the leader specialise in the art of front running in serious times.
- Total Posts 17716
Disgusting post Carv
How is it "disgusting" to point out that this thread’s in the wrong section? If not
Lays and Plays
, then
Big Races
would be more appropriate – that section was brought in for the purpose.
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