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Handicap Ratings Method – Irish Racing

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  • #1515917
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4919

    Here’s hoping that Irish Racing can keep on rolling through the Covid strife. To give myself an extra area of study I’ll try to cover the Irish handicaps this year. In the short term it should be easy enough to cover all races as there’s generally only 2 or 3 a card for jumps meetings.

    (R) – Indicates Reserve

    FRIDAY JANUARY 1

    Tramore
    12.53 Coole Arcade(R) 100; Saol Iontach 94; Mc Alpine 91; Shakeytry 88; Colonel Lesley 88; Still Alive(R) 88
    2.02 Ximyerg(R) 87; Deo Bellator(R) 85; Siberian Star 80; Little Token 67; Delirious Love 61; Loyal Lioness 61
    3.40 Cadawill 117; Like A Demon(R) 98; Presenting Point 95; Macho Mover 95

    An uninspiring start to the year. Most of the form of the first two races is lousy and complicated by Reserves being amongst top rated. The 2.02 is an incredibly poor looking race given that I would expect the top rated to have a figure of at least 100 in this class. Ximyerg might just be of interest should he get in(3rd Reserve so unlikely), with runs which read to me as ‘blatant school’, ‘blatant school’, ‘school’, ‘some effort’. His 8th of 17 at Punchestown looks at least acceptable in this out of form and poor company.

    In the 3.40 Cadawill’s figure looks rather dubious, been based on rapid improvement of the winner from his last race in October. Possibly worth a small stake though if price is long enough. PRESENTING POINT looks strongest form horse of the day, but price likely to reflect that.

    #1515921
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 16273

    Good luck Rob, though if it’s like the other thread, you won’t need it.

    #1515962
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2781

    Hi Rob, the form in Ireland is incredibly difficult to read due to the non trying which goes on in big field maidens and handicaps.
    But it is fun trying to work it all out!
    Good luck with this project.
    As VTC says it will throw up some interesting results if half as good as your ratings method thread.

    #1515970
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4919

    Tramore 2.02 has to be the worst race ITV Racing have covered in recent times! Ratings amended due to non-runners:

    Siberian Star 80
    Little Token 67
    Delirious Love 61

    Bear in mind that a ‘par’ figure for form at this level would be around 100!
    I’d be looking at the handicap first timers in this one.

    #1516001
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4919

    Testing the water a bit here, but top rated 2nd and 3rd suggests I’m in the right ball park. Unique little track at Tramore and one I can hopefully ‘tick’ in better times.

    Classier contests at Cork tomorrow.

    SATURDAY JANUARY 2

    Cork
    2.13 Owenacurra Lass 141; Commentariolus 140; Dinard Rose 136
    3.23 Atlantic Shore 138; Grand Partner 138; Getaday 137

    #1516182
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4919

    This is likely to be a bit of a learning curve and money will stay firmly in pocket until I’ve got a firm handle on Irish form. Willie Mullins could win a race with the three-legged stable cat at the moment and produced Koshari to win today’s 2.13 off an 800+ day layoff. Treacysenniscorthy won the chase, had back form to give him a chance but not enough to figure amongst my principals.

    Weather allowing there are two handicaps tomorrow then a break until Thursday.

    SUNDAY JANUARY 3

    Fairyhouse
    1.45 Optum 130; Port Rashid 128; Flindt 124
    2.15 Ragin Cajun 116; Calibrator(R) 116; Ardhill 115; Happie Days 114

    Once again a reserve looks to be in the picture in the latter contest if it gets in. Can’t moan though as one of my best ever wins was a Leopardstown reserve that got in very late and I’d backed at a 3 figure price in the morning!

    #1516255
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4919

    Flindt (16/1) was a fitting winner of the 1.45 at Fairyhouse which was the retirement celebration race for his trainer Dot Love. Pleased to get a decent winner in the bank from the top 3.
    Ballyshannon Rose won the 2.15 and I had that one fourth rated on 113, so pretty much in the right area.

    Next Irish card is Clonmel on Thursday 7th when there will be 3 handicaps to get my teeth into.

    #1516620
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4919

    THURSDAY JANUARY 7

    Inspection tomorrow morning so no guarantee Clonmel will go ahead. The three low level handicaps look like ‘equine bingo’ and there are a few in the hurdles that have been hidden away schooling in maidens. However, the top figures are:

    Clonmel
    1.20 Just Another Lady 100; Winsor Vixen 99; Toms Courage 94
    2.50 Cratloe 109; Shar Whats The Rush 105; Zaccarela 105
    3.20 American Image 118; De Bennette 115; Damut 111

    #1516706
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4919

    Clonmel off today but there’s an all-weather meeting at Dundalk which should go ahead tomorrow. As ever at Dundalk there are some competitive contests and I’ll be interested to see how well the figures work out at the lower levels on the flat.

    R = Reserve runner

    FRIDAY JANUARY 8

    Dundalk
    3.55 Red Cymbal 90; Mushaarif 85; Maggie Thunder 85
    5.00 Empathic(R) 72; Royal Marksman 68; Jackmel(R) 67; Muraahin 66; Guiding 66
    5.30 Ecoeye(R) 92; Crystal Dawn 87; Eglish 87; Miss Jabeam 82; Jungle Cove(R) 82
    6.30 Swift Wing 99; Jake Peter 97; Got Trumped 97; Nibiru 97; Tonkinese 96
    7.00 Maunganui 91; Red Sole Diva 79; Haunting Vocals 75
    7.30 Lucky Phil 71; Dancing Doll 70; Fryerns 66; Romann 66

    #1517048
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4919

    Naas off tomorrow but the Irish programme gives a bit more flexibility and it is rearranged for Wednesday 13th. Hopefully with the same runners and it will save me recalculating the figures!

    Struggle with generally flat racing at Dundalk yesterday, Romann 4/1 being the only winner listed plus a couple of near misses. more action from Dundalk on Monday but the handicaps are all 45-65 affairs with a look of Buggin’s Turn about them.

    #1517109
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4919

    MONDAY JANUARY 11

    (R) = Reserve runner

    Dundalk

    2.30 Fayetta 71; Griffyndor 71; Complete Fiction 71; Pretty Little Liar 71
    3.00 Leahman 75; Caridaid(R) 71; Strip Light 69; Maricruz 68; Macaban City 68
    3.30 Falak 69; Sharjah 67; Take A Turn 66; Tham Luang 66
    4.00 Winston Wolfe 67; Trump Card 64; Bare With Me 63
    5.30 Hartbanaker 85; Overtake(R) 68; Porterinthejungle(R) 68; Jackmel 67; Philly’s Hope 67; Neyland(R) 67
    6.00 Dromod Lad 74; Tidal Racer 73; Emphatic 72; Miss Sassyboots(R) 72

    #1517267
    robnorth
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    • Total Posts 4919

    A couple of top rated winners in the 2 mile heats, Falak at 5/1 and Winston Wolfe 3/1. Chuck in 3rd rated Emphatic 6/1 and the ratings were more in the right area today.

    Ratings for the next 21 days:

    TUESDAY JANUARY 12

    Fairyhouse
    12.20 Moscowsowhat 127; Robin Deuz Pois 119; Dubai Devils 116
    3.00 See Double You 101; Winsor Vixen 99; Boogily Lane 95
    3.30 Bellany Gem 100; Royal Rhythm 100; Calibrator 99

    The OAP See Double You hinted a couple of runs ago that he’s not a complete back number. Weighted to get involved if he still has the enthusiasm

    WEDNESDAY JANUARY 13

    Thankfully runners retained from Sunday so saved any further calculation.

    Naas
    1.50 Emily Moon 139; Dakota Moirette 136; Chief Of Police 136
    3.20 Siberian Star 117; The Broghie Man 115; Uisce Solas 113

    #1517610
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4919

    FRIDAY JANUARY 15

    Dundalk
    3.45 Danz Gift(R) 69; Pillar 67; Polly Douglas 66; Maggie Thunder(R) 65; Woodrow 63
    4.15 Baltinglass Abbey 87; Betrayed 72; Harry’s Hill 71
    4.45 Spelga 82; Sister Eliza(R) 82; Glorious Zoff 81; Illusory(R) 81; Tirmizi 74
    6.15 Dream Katcher 77; Barretstown 76; International Lady 76
    6.45 Iseebreeze 74; Amazing One(R) 73; Caesar’s Comet 69; Beleaguerment 69
    7.15 Burning Lake 71; Indiana Grey 70; St Georges Head 69

    #1517673
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4919

    Weekend ratings

    SATURDAY JANUARY 16

    Fairyhouse
    1.40 Lee Valley Legacy 148; Criq Rock 145; Beyond The Law 145
    2.15 Arvico Bleu 172; Daly Tiger 167; Goulane Chosen 166

    SUNDAY JANUARY 17

    Punchestown
    2.20 Klassy Kay 134; Smiths Girl 125; Lauderdale Lady 124
    3.20 Kristian Goingwel 103; An Marcach 100; It’s Only A Number 99
    3.50 Cushinstown Finest 141; Soancil Hill 141; Screaming Colours 140; Atlantic Shore 138

    #1518016
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4919

    A pretty decent set of results over the weekend with 2 top rated winners today at Punchestown and Daly Tiger at 20/1 second top in yesterday’s feature chase at Fairyhouse. After four winners from the top 3 at Dundalk on Friday general performance of the figures is heading in the right direction.

    Races generally better populated in Ireland than they are in the UK, so not expecting percentages to be quite so good. however, if I can manage 35-40% winners in the top three over a period of time I’d be well pleased. Starting to get sued to the from as well since the same names keep popping up running against each other and I’m getting a fair idea of what’s going to come out top even before I’ve done the calculations.

    Some run of the mill low grade stuff at Punchestown and Clonmel for the next two days:

    MONDAY JANUARY 18

    Punchestown
    1.35 Pottlerath 119; Solar Heat 118; My Manekineko 117; Spare Brakes 113
    3.45 Ballea Fox 111; Keep The Peace 110; Seangoell 107; Saddlers Cottage 104

    TUESDAY JANUARY 19

    Clonmel
    2.05 Monty’s Mission 102; Just Another Lady 101; Arctic Ambition 98; Quarry Lil 96; De Bennette 96
    3.05 Shes Some Doll 123; Zaccarela 105; Knockraha Boss 104
    3.35 American Image 118; Espion Du Chenet 115; Rock On Barney 114; Kilkeaskins First 113

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