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In my early days I was advised to never back a horse to do something it has never done before. As a strategy it is too rigid to be applied as it stands, but I have never forgotten it and find myself coming back to it time and again when considering a bet. It’s simplistic but it helps to sort out the dead wood.
Has anyone got any views on the merits of this as a basic principle, or have you got your own that you find yourself using – in spite of your better judgement perhaps!I think it depends upon the price of the horse you are thinking of betting.
A short price horse, and you should be expecting it to repeat.
Longer price horses, and there has got to be a greater latitude.
For instance, the AW, polytrack fibresand. If a fave ain’t done it before , then take a double check, if an outsider ain’t done it before, the only way is up.
My first principle of betting was also that of the late Phil Bull.
It is the prime duty of a backer to strive continuously to secure the best possible odds for the stakes being put at risk because like it or not, after that everything else is in the lap of the gods.
In my experience if the price is what you would call good value for what the horse has actually done or what the other runners have done or not done then there are more pros than cons.
This is an open ended thread. Everything and Anything, should, in theory, be considered.
I have been in a bad run for a couple months in general terms so perhaps I should keep it zipped but I generally avoid favourites or anything below odds of 4-1. I have different ideas for different races. For a maiden on the flat I would often pay closer attention to the 2nd or 3rd fav than a fav as you can get good each way odds, especially if fav is a newcomer.
I guess if you really fancy one in a big race (and I mean you have a huge gut feeling without form study) then that is often a good strategy. Or at least I have done ok in that manner.
Have you backed Comply or Die for the National?
A fair point which exposes the flaw in my ‘go to’ approach!
In its defence I’d have to say that it suggests a horse that has demonstrated an ability to jump and travel well, in big fields, over a distance, on the prevailing going, at or near its current handicap rating and in this class of field. So, Character Building anyone?
Having said that I’ve backed Snowy Morning and Can’t Buy Time but not Comply Or Die, so what do I know?This is an open ended thread. Everything and Anything, should, in theory, be considered.
Couldn’t agree more, but the critical words are ‘in theory’.
What I’m interested in are the rules that people apply to reduce the anything and everything, or to cut through the paralysis by analysis situation where everything (or nothing) can win.
Interesting that you feel that you’ve had success with gut feeling. I suspect it may cause some to throw their hands up in horror, but I must admit to having had moments when you look at a field and you just know……
Back rank outsiders in novice hurdles and chases in fields with between six and eleven runners, at Betfair S.P.
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I am a sucker for odds, I know the best horse is at 2-1 but i’ll never take it because it means putting more on so I always look elsewhere, sometimes it pays off more times it doesn’t but the odds level themselves out.
Trickmeister,
Whenever you have a gut feeling about a horse and think you know that it will win, make a note of it. At the end of the season, look back at how your instinct compared with your more reasoned choices. I would be very surprised if your gut instinct came out on top. I believe our memory is selective in favour of winning bets, which are few in relation to losers.
Also, what are our instincts but a distillation of our knowledge and animal cunning?, So, instinctive choices should be a fairly representative sample of everything we back. If you are not a very good judge to start with or a guesser, your gut feelings will only be as good as this.
Artemis, you are probably correct about remembering winners mor ethan losers. But in general, my big fancies are only for big races on big race days (ie saturdays). And generally they are at 10-1 or more.
I must admit I haven’t tallied up my "big fancy" winners and losers but, given the odds on offer on these, I suspect I am at least break even (Laa Rayb 33-1, Zaahid 14-1 just two from last summer).
I will have to keep track for the season ahead. Already Dream Lodge is the one for the Lincoln at 33-1/40-1.
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