Grand National 2024

[Mike007]

“Value is everything”

Backing the winner is everything ;o)

[Gingertipster]

LOL
Trouble is when placing a bet nobody – not even you Mike – can say they’re “backing the winner” because nobody knows who the winner will be. Bookies don’t know either. They’ll just offer odds based on what they believe is the probability of each horse winning plus a mark up. Maybe by “backing the winner” you mean backing the horse with the best chance of winning? The bookie’s odds compiler himself has worked out who he thinks has the best chance of winning and added a mark up. So for a punter to every race back the horse he / she believes has the best chance of winning won’t show a long term profit. Therefore the best we can do as punters is study the form and work out what the horse’s probability of winning is. In each race backing horses we believe are underestimated by the market. Whether that’s the horse with the best chance, a reasonable chance, not much chance or even the worst chance of winning. As long as it is underestimated by the market.

ie Value IS everything.

There are many ways to achieve value; but value is what all punters need to achieve overall profit.

Value Is Everything

[KendalCavalier]

I’m not taking sides here in case I come under a Cider Attack.

All handicap chases since 2010 (minus veterans chases) and runs by age and their respective win percentages.

4yo 575 runs 87 wins @ 15.13%
5yo 5429 runs 757 wins @ 13.94%
6yo 19714 runs 3111 wins @ 15.78%
7yo 32256 runs 4498 wins @ 13.94%
8yo 32132 runs 3880 wins @ 12.08%
9yo 25678 runs 2629 wins @ 10.24%
10yo 16555 runs 1474 wins @ 8.9%
11yo 8722 runs 737 wins @ 8.45%
12yo 3992 runs 293 wins @ 7.34%

If I were to look at the same type of races from 2015 then the following happens

10yo 10507 runs 949 wins @ 9.03% (increase)
11yo 5590 runs 439 wins @ 7.85%
12yo 2733 runs 205 wins @ 7.5% (increase)

And if I bring it forward further to the resumption after COVID

10yo 3777 runs 309 wins @ 8.18%
11yo 1964 runs 144 wins @ 7.33%
12yo 1012 runs 73 wins @ 7.21%

And finally to this season

10yo 508 runs 43 wins @ 8.46%
11yo 234 runs 17 wins @ 7.27%
12yo 128 runs 9 wins @ 7.03%

Since 2010 the veteran horses by their race win % (the amount of races where one or more have turned up in and how many they have won).

10yo 9706 races 1474 wins @ 15.19%
11yo 6258 races 737 wins @ 11.78%
12yo 3327 races 293 wins @ 8.81%

Since resumption after COVID

10yo 2374 races 309 wins @ 13.02%
11yo 1467 races 144 wins @ 9.82%
12yo 847 races 73 wins @ 8.62%

This season

10yo 345 races 43 wins @ 12.46%
11yo 193 races 17 wins @ 8.81%
12yo 103 races 9 wins @ 8.74%

There is some slight fluctuation here and there but generally the figures suggest that older horses will keep winning but it seems it is getting progressively more difficult to do so.

I will look at the Class of race at some point because we’ve seen the likes of Chambard, Truckers Lodge and Shakem Uparry this season showing that older horses do still win decent prizes.

[Gingertipster]

Interesting stuff Kendal.
Will have a closer look later; but on first inspection many of the percentages appear to fall within the margin of error to suggest there is not much change.

Value Is Everything

[IanDavies]

If we have a really wet, climate change-esque, spring and Aintree gets all “Red Marauder,” I’d love to see Nassalam bypass Cheltenham for this, even off his revised mark.

The owners don’t sound too keen, but he’s already jumped round in the Grand Sefton and he’s an uber swamp monster who has now proven he stays longer than me at an “eat all you can” visit to a Hob Nob factory.

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[Gingertipster]

This extreme distance might (only “might”) even make it enough of a stamina test for Nass’ to be effective on soft or true good-soft. Although yes, a deluge would put him as the obvious Earth Summit-like conveyance.

NB I say “true good-soft” because a lot of the time the going is described as officially good-soft when clear it’s actually true good.

Value Is Everything

[vikingflagship]

Apparently Monbeg Genius still isn’t right so misses another engagement, so will be race to get fitness for National

Vf x

[KendalCavalier]

Martin Brassil’s National record. 1636U. When he prepares one, you generally get a run for your money.

[Mike007]

Trainer is looking to run Panda Boy over hurdles next at the DRF so off 143 some doubt about him getting in.

[peter .h]

Taken from a Grand National Facebook group, here are the key dates for this year’s Grand National.

Entries Close (Tuesday February 5)
Weights Revealed (Tuesday February 19)
First scratching deadline (Tuesday March 15)
Second scratchings deadline (Tuesday March 26)
Six-day confirmations (Monday April 8th)
Final declarations (Thursday 10am April 11th)
Grand National Race (Saturday April 13th)

[peter .h]

Iwilldoit kept tabs on two genuine grade 1 types over way shorter than his best trip at Lingfield today. I’ll be very interested to see what happens to his mark after that as it is starting to creep towards his Classic Chase mark. 80/1 looks a bit of a gift.

[Red Rum 77]

Was sweet on Iwilldoit last year, he never made the line up due to being short of six chases. This year that shouldn’t be a problem. Not heard anything about them sending him there this year. If he lines up in April then he’ll be carrying some of my money.

You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.

[vikingflagship]

Let’s hope he will do it this season

Vf x

[TakeYourTime]

Sam Thomas was quoted after the Welsh National as saying Iwilldoit is unlikely to line up in the National as he needs proper soft ground. Can’t find the quote anywhere but I definitely remember hearing this.

[Gingertipster]

I thought The Real Whacker ran a lot better today while front running. Made a couple of mistakes (one bad one) but took a lot of his fences well while in front, gaining ground at most of his fences. Badly outpaced but staying on again at the finish. Can’t see him being good enough in the Gold Cup, but one that could improve at an extreme distance IF given a Lord Gyllene type ride.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Noble Yeats is still young enough to progress.

Value Is Everything

[vikingflagship]

I notice weights reveal a week later then usual. So will be just after the Haydock trial

Vf x

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