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How many 12 yr olds have run in the GN in the last 15 renewals ?
17PRU90UFP
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UPB6FPPPPP
8FP000PFP0
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0F9ORRUPP0001996-2011 for 12, 13 and 14yos.
Something I did in the trends section a couple of years ago…
The truth about age trends and The Grand National
In the last 20 years of the Grand National (1989-2009 and not including the void 1993) there’s been 760 runners.
Of those 760 runners the age of winners were:
6yo 0 wins(0% of the 20 winners), 7yo 0 wins (0%), 8yo 2 wins (10% of those 20 wins), 9yo 6 wins (30%), 10yo 5 wins (25%), 11yo 4 wins (20%), 12yo 3 wins (15%
), 13yo 0 wins (0%), 14yo 0 wins (0%).
However, of those 760 runners:
10 runners (1.32% of the total runners) were 6 year olds,
28 (3.68%) were 7 year olds
100 (13.16%) were 8,
191 (25.13%) 9
182 (23.95%) 10
150 (19.74%) 11
70 (9.21%) 12
25 (3.29%) 13
4 (0.53%) 14So with
6 year olds
, if everything was fair, you could expect them to win
0 of those 20
(0.0132 x 20 = 0.264).
They won none
.
You could expectbetween 0 and 1
winner to be
7
year olds (0.0368 x 20 = 0.736).
None
were 7 year olds.
You could expectbetween 2 and 3
winners to be
8
year olds (0.1316 x 20 = 2.632).
2
winners were 8 year olds.
You could expectaround 5
winners to be
9
year olds (0.2513 x 20 = 5.026).
6
winners were 9 year olds.
Around 5
winners to be
10
year olds (0.2395 x 20 = 4.79).
5
winners were 10 year olds.
Around 4
winners to be
11
year olds (0.1974 x 20 = 3.948).
4
winners were 11 year olds.
Around 2
winners to be
12
year olds (0.0921 x 20 = 1.842).
3
winners were 12 year olds.
Between 0 and 1
winners to be
13
year olds (0.0329 x 20 = 0.658).
0
winners were 13 year olds.
Around 0 14
year olds (0.0053 x 20 = 0.106).
0
winners were 14 year olds.
It can be seen that
9 year olds and 12 year olds had a slightly better
(only by about 1 winner) record than can be expected.
What about the record of age groups to be placed in the first 5 in those 20 years? One year only 4 runners finished, so there were 99 placings in 20 years.
Of those 99:
0 were 6yo (0%), You could expect 1.32%
0 were 7 yo (0%), You could expect 3.62%
18 were 8yo (18% of the 99 placed), expected 13.16%
29 were 9 yo (29%), expected 25.13%
19 were 10yo (19%), expected 23.95%
24 were 11yo (24%), expected 19.74%
8 were 12yo (8%), expected 9.21%
1 was 13yo (1%), expected 3.29%
0 were 14yo (0%), expected 0.53%8, 9 and 11 year olds had a slightly better
record of placing than you’d expect if everything were equal. In contrast to the winners record, 12 year olds (along with 10 year olds had a slightly worse record than could be expected.
Conclusion:
It could be argued the best age is 9 years old. They may well have the right blend of experience and possibility of improvement for the race.However, this “advantage” is so small, to base a selection process on it would be foolish. To discount a horse soley by its age also seems foolish.
6 and 7 year olds may not have the required experience. However, the sample is so small that just one winner would turn them statistically from being a bad age group to a good age group. Therefore, again to rule out this age group on age alone would be foolish.
13 and 14 year olds also have "poor" records which could also change with just one win. The 13 year old to place was 5th in the 6 finisher 1994 race. It is fairly obvious these age groups are often on the downgrade and so less likely to produce a winner.
12 year olds don’t have the poor record some seem to think
, with a higher percentage winning than could be expected. The place record being slightly less, suggests the good win performance could be a coincidence. Either way, being a 12 year old should surely
not
be regarded as a disadvantage?
Value Is Everythingnote – form update for cooldine and the midnight club, 4th and 3rd in running today
vf
Deep Purple will win
Thank you for going to all the trouble of putting up the entries vf
much appreciated.Thing is Ginger the percentages depend on the period you sample.
You chose the 20 years from 1989 to 2009 which supplied three 12 year old winners. However if you had chosen the 30 years from 1981 to 2011 there would still only have been three 12 year old winners and your percentages would be rather different.
For me it seems logical that, as the class of horses running in the National improves and the race seems to be run at a good pace throughout (the idea that you could just ‘hunt’ round the first circuit has long gone) the 12 year olds are going to find it more and more difficult to keep up.
One may possibly run on into a place but I just can’t see there being a 12 year old winner.
Been reading in Racing Post that the last time the initial entries was this low 1996 which was also 82 or so I’m led to believe
the number of going to post was 27.So I’m going to predict the number going to post would be 30 give or take 2.
I didn’t "choose" the 20 years Nenni, it was (at the time of writing) the last 20 years. To go back any further would (imo) be wrong, because the race changed a lot between 1979 and 1989. In any case, my stats show that for the number of 12 year olds running in those 20 years only 2 winners could be expected, and there were 3. So by making it the last 30 years (if the same percentage of runners were 12 year olds) you could expect 3 winners aged 12 and there were 3 winners in those 30 years. It does not matter when the 3 horses won. Am not saying 12 year olds are favoured. My point is that these statistics suggest there is NO age bias and every horse should be judged on its own merits.
Whether it is in form, well handicapped (or alternatively likely to improve), jumps well, stays well (without being a sluggard), of the right temperament, effective on a flat left-handed course and will go on the prevailing ground.
Fair enough if a particular 12 year old’s form is exposed or on the downgrade / poorly handicapped, don’t back it. Just don’t dismiss it SOLEY on account of age. As most horses get older, they settle better and so stay further than they once did. So as well as your point about some not having the speed at 12 Nenni… It’s quite possible some produce more stamina and actually have a better chance of winning as 12 year olds than they did at the age of 9.
Value Is EverythingBeen reading in Racing Post that the last time the initial entries was this low 1996 which was also 82 or so I’m led to believe
the number of going to post was 27.So I’m going to predict the number going to post would be 30 give or take 2.
I seem to remember there were 7 non qualifiers including Killeshin!
Plus with there being only 2 weeks between chelt and the GN it was a recipe for disaster.
I reckon on a field of 36 this year.
There were 7 n/q’s honeys, others included McGregor The Third, Do Be Brief and It’s A Cracker.
There were 7 n/q’s honeys, others included McGregor The Third, Do Be Brief and It’s A Cracker.
Excellent knowledge VTC so along with those three plus Killeshin there was Maneree and Carrickrovady i think ,so who was the 7th ?
Btw do you have full lists of entries for th 80’s 90’s and early 2000’s
They would be interesting viewing, i used tp keep the old entry lists when published but they have got lost over the years
There were 7 n/q’s honeys, others included McGregor The Third, Do Be Brief and It’s A Cracker.
Excellent knowledge VTC so along with those three plus Killeshin there was Maneree and Carrickrovady i think ,so who was the 7th ?
Btw do you have full lists of entries for th 80’s 90’s and early 2000’s
They would be interesting viewing, i used tp keep the old entry lists when published but they have got lost over the years
Needless to say VtC, I’d love to see such info as well!
Another thing I’m interested in would be GN non-runners through the 70s and 80s. Probably not many but sure there must be some. I remember the likes of Stormtracker and Why So Hasty being declared and not taking part in the 90s.
Apologies to Viking Flagship for hijacking their thread. Happy to take it elsewhere.
I’ve put in the current "official ratings" and weight allotted
IF
the handicapper keeps to those ratings. NB. Handicapper is likely to drop those at the top of the weights. If the top three come out it could leave Ballabriggs at the top with weights rising 8 lbs.
GRAND NATIONAL 2012
13-P031
SYNCHRONISED
9 11-10 J P McManus /
Jonjo O’Neill
168
1/10P-13
WEIRD AL
9 11-6 Brannon, Dennis, Dick, Holden /
Donald McCain
164
115-F31
MIDNIGHT CHASE
10 11-5 Lady Clarke /
Neil Mulholland
163
11/1121-
BALLABRIGGS
11 11-2 Trevor Hemmings /
Donald McCain
160
11121/2-
BURTON PORT
8 11-2 Trevor Hemmings /
Nicky Henderson
160
51U/022/-
BLACK APALACHI
13 11-1 Gerard Burke /
Dessie Hughes
IRE
159
2F-0511
CALGARY BAY
9 11-1 Camilla Radford /
Henrietta Knight
159
106-P42
NEPTUNE COLLONGES
11 11-1 John Hales /
Paul Nicholls
159
F01/35-2
PLANET OF SOUND
10 11-1 Charles Lloyd-Baker /
Philip Hobbs
159
F-6041U
ALFA BEAT
8 11-0 Irvin Naylor /
John Hanlon
IRE
158
140310
UNCLE JUNIOR
11 10-12 Mrs M McMahon /
Willie Mullins
IRE
156
143111
BLAZING TEMPO
8 10-10 Susannah Ricci /
Willie Mullins
IRE
154
6/3U34-1
DEEP PURPLE
11 10-10 Paul Green /
Evan Williams
154
363144
SCOTSIRISH
11 10-10 Double R Stables Syndicate /
Willie Mullins
IRE
154
131/321-
JUNIOR
9 10-9 Middleham Park Racing LI /
David Pipe
153
112-021
QUANTITATIVEEASING
7 10-9J P McManus /
Nicky Henderson
153
04-5060
TARTAK
9 10-9 David Fox /
Tim Vaughan
153
6/1155-6
LITTLE JOSH
10 10-8 Tony Bloom /
Nigel Twiston-Davies
152
1U3043
ROBERTO GOLDBACK
10 10-8 Seamus Dunne /
Dessie Hughes
IRE
152
2-FU111
APT APPROACH
9 10-6 Greenstar Syndicate /
Willie Mullins
IRE
150
10-U303
CHICAGO GREY
9 10-6 John Earls /
Gordon Elliott
IRE
150
1FF-F11
QUEL ESPRIT
8 10-6 Red Barn Syndicate /
Willie Mullins
IRE
150
3100-01
TATENEN
8 10-6 The Stewart Family /
Richard Rowe
150
22-3011
ACCORDING TO PETE
11 10-5 Peter Nelson /
Malcolm Jefferson
149
000-112
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM
8 10-5 Liam Breslin /
Nicky Henderson
149
11PB-P1
WEST END ROCKER
10 10-5 Barry Winfield & Tim Leadbeater /
Alan King
149
1P-1323
HECTOR’S CHOICE
8 10-4 James and Jean Potter /
Richard Lee
148
235/3/1-P
MASSINI’S MAGUIRE
11 10-4 Alan Peterson /
David Pipe
148
0F2224
PSYCHO
11 10-4 Exors of The Late C McClure /
Tony Martin
IRE
148
//U1/2B/1-
ROULEZ COOL
9 10-4 Robert Waley-Cohen /
Robert Waley-Cohen
148
3/216-B43
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB
11 10-4 Susannah Ricci /
Willie Mullins IRE
148
2113-1P
ALWAYS RIGHT
10 10-3 John Wade /
John Wade
147
0P2F-60
ARBOR SUPREME
10 10-3 J P McManus /
Jonjo O’Neill
147
3F2P/-13
CAPPA BLEU
10 10-3 William & Angela Rucker /
Evan Williams
147
3/5P-2304
COOLDINE
10 10-3 Jackie Mullins /
Willie Mullins IRE
147
5U-P20P
CRESCENT ISLAND
9 10-3 Sarah Bays Jill Scott Sarah MacEchern /
Nigel Twiston-Davies
147
PU-3450
RARE BOB
10 10-3 D A Syndicate /
Dessie Hughes IRE
147
63F/-52P
MON MOME
12 10-1 Vida Bingham /
Venetia Williams
145
12-133F
ORGANISEDCONFUSION
7 10-1 Grace Dunlop /
Arthur Moore IRE
145
PP//1-11
HOLD ON JULIO
9 10-0 Mr & Mrs F Bell, N Farrell, A Marsh /
Alan King
144
F11/-111
SEABASS
9 10-0 Gunners Syndicate /
Ted Walsh IRE
144
0044B-2
VIC VENTURI
12 10-0 J P Dunne /
Dessie Hughes IRE
144
500423-
NORTHERN ALLIANCE
11 9-13 Irish Rover Syndicate /
Tony Martin IRE
143
14P1-B1
ON HIS OWN
8 9-13 Andrea & Graham Wylie /
Willie Mullins IRE
143
2130-F2
PEARLYSTEPS
9 9-13 The Glazeley Partnership /
Henry Daly
143
U5351-5
PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
9 9-13 Andrea & Graham Wylie /
Willie Mullins IRE
143
2F-4010
QUISCOVER FONTAINE
8 9-13 J P McManus /
Willie Mullins IRE
143
4-U2634
FAIR ALONG
10 9-12 Alan Peterson /
Philip Hobbs
142
F505-02
NICHE MARKET
11 9-12 Graham Regan /
Paul Nicholls
142
P0-5121
STEWARTS HOUSE
10 9-12 Double Trouble Partnership /
Tim Vaughan
142
03F-30P
SUNNYHILLBOY
9 9-12 J P McManus /
Jonjo O’Neill
142
F-03034
KILLYGLEN
10 9-11 David McCammon /
Stuart Crawford IRE
141
041-044
ALWAYS WAINING
11 9-10Mr & Mrs Peter James Douglas /
Peter Bowen
140
P/5000-P
BACKSTAGE
10 9-10 MPR & Capranny Syndicate /
Gordon Elliott IRE
140
42F-63F
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE
9 9-10 Noel Glynn /
Noel Glynn IRE
140
P-0P011
LE BEAU BAI
9 9-10 Glass Half Full /
Richard Lee
140
144/P3/4-
STATE OF PLAY
12 9-10 William & Angela Rucker /
Evan Williams
140
2313P2
SWING BILL
11 9-10 David Johnson /
David Pipe
140
FP-2661
POSTMASTER
10 9-9The Bill & Ben Partnership /
Tim Vaughan
139
4-P1300
THARAWAAT
7 9-9 Gigginstown House Stud /
Gordon Elliott IRE
139
312U5/5-
THE PACKAGE
9 9-9 David Johnson /
David Pipe
139
1P-6P60
WYMOTT
8 9-9 Trevor Hemmings /
Donald McCain
139
3/P22-12
GILES CROSS
10 9-8 KCMS Partnership /
Victor Dartnall
138
431U0-P
IN COMPLIANCE
12 9-7 Dessie Hughes /
Dessie Hughes IRE
137
21/10P-1
MIDNIGHT HAZE
10 9-7 Kim Bailey Racing Partnership /
Kim Bailey
137
00-143P
VIKING BLOND
7 9-7 Caroline Mould /
Nigel Twiston-Davies
137
R-120U3
QHILIMAR
8 9-6 Whites of Coventry & Stephen Dunn /
Charlie Longsdon
136
30/-003P
SHAKERVILZ
9 9-6 Jackie Mullins /
Willie Mullins IRE
136
30-3150
NEPTUNE EQUESTER
9 9-4 Koo’s Racing Club /
Brian Ellison
134
PP24U6
SOME TARGET
8 9-2 Captain Conflict Syndicate /
Willie Mullins IRE
132
P/P-5142
TREACLE
11 9-2 Bjorn Nielsen /
Tom Taaffe IRE
132
32-3P40
ANY CURRENCY
9 9-1 Cash Is King /
Martin Keighley
131
PP-5U65
HELLO BUD
14 9-0 Seamus Murphy /
Nigel Twiston-Davies
130
0-42026
OUR ISLAND
7 9-0 David Fox /
Tim Vaughan
130
11PPP0
SCHINDLER’S GOLD
10 9-0 Dr Richard & Laura Newland /
Dr Richard Newland
130
2/31P/-FP
ABBEYBRANEY
11 8-13 Sue Johnson / George Bewley 129
50-PP0F
KING FONTAINE
9 8-11 Trevor Hemmings /
Malcolm Jefferson
127
0/660-P4
SADDLERS STORM
10 8-10 Billy Moffett, R T & J McLoughlin /
Tony Martin IRE
126
12-20P3
BALLYVESEY
7 8-9 Roddy Owen & Paul Fullagar /
Peter Bowen
125
6-12026
ANOTHER PALM
7 8-7 M J M Racing Syndicate /
Noel Meade IRE
123
0P3-5U2
MINELLA THEATRE
9 8-7 Middleham Park Racing XXIV & Dan Gilbert /
Lawney Hill
123
05-3410
SMOKING ACES
8 8-7 J P McManus /
Tom Taaffe IRE
123
82 entries
Value Is EverythingHoneys, the other one was Topical Tip. I do have the entries lists from 91 onwards, but it will take a bit of digging about in the loft, I tried to recover some old VHS last month for Old Applejack, but I had to abort for my own safety. I’ll try to get the finger out and see what I can do. I’ve got a few from the last 5/6 years which aren’t in the loft if that’s any use to you. In the meantime, if you have any queries I’ll try my best to answer them.
Hello OA, just replied to Honeysdad re: the entries, I’ll try to get finger out.
These are the non runners/withdrawals I can think of, I’ve a niggling feeling I’ve missed one.
1980 Man Alive & Wagner
1981 Artistic Prince
1990 Sacred Path & Why So Hasty
1993 Just So
1994 Bishops Hall, Rifle Range, Windy Ways
1996 Plastic Spaceage
1997 Plastic Spaceage, Belmont King, Over The Stream, Master Boston
1998 Stormtracker
2004 ThyneandthyneagainWhere can I get the full rules of runners restrictions for the National please. Would it be the Aintree site or the BHA site?
http://www.aintree.co.uk/docLib/Aintree … arloGD.pdf
THE JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL STEEPLE CHASE (HANDICAP)
(CLASS 1)
(Grade 3)
Total prize fund £975000
Distributed in accordance with Schedule (F)9.4.7
(Includes a tenth prize)
£547267 to the winning horse
The second to receive £205822, the third £102862, the fourth £51382,
the fifth £25837, the sixth £12870, the seventh £6630,
the eighth £3510, the ninth £1950 and the tenth £975
for seven yrs old and upwards which, up to and including
March 20th,have been placed first, second, third or fourth
in a steeple chase of three miles or more and which are
allotted a rating of 120 or more by the BHA Head of Handicapping
following a review of the horses entered and after taking
account of races run up to and including February 12th.
Horses which are not qualified for a rating in Great Britain or
Ireland at closing may also be entered. Such horses may be
eligible for a weight providing the Handicapper is satisfied
that the horse’s racecourse performances up to and including
February 12th would merit a minimum rating of 120. To qualify,
horses must have run at least three times in Steeple Chases run
under the Rules of Racing of the same Recognised Racing Authority
up to and including February 12th. At the Handicapper’s
discretion, such horses may be allocated a rating. The decision
of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be finalFOUR MILES ABOUT FOUR FURLONGS (Over the Grand National Course)
£900 stake
£1000 extra if not scratched by February 28th
£1100 extra if not scratched by March 20th
£1600 extra if entry confirmed
Highest weight………………………………………..11st 10lb
Weights published…………………………Thursday, February 16th
(No penalties after the publication of the weights)
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