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Yes they will be Flemo. For the safety of man and horse. Hopefully screens will be better positioned.
Value Is EverythingCan’t understand why some soft ground horses (who will be suited by the increased test of stamina) are not being backed.
According To Pete still available @ 40/1
Le Beau Bai still 40/1
Neptune Collonges 33/1
and Black Apalachi 50/1Along with Giles Cross, Synchronised and West End Rocker (who are now at the front of the market); they look the stamina laden soft/heavy ground horses.
Anyone who likes exactas should seriously consider boxing these 7 horses now.
well ive got la beau bia antepost have done for while now, and 40/1 are huge odds for him ii reckon, also got according to pete antepost
vf
Re the pending soft ground i can understand why some horses who were around 20s a week or so ago, and prefer soft ground, have shortened over the last couple of days.
But aren’t 40/1 shots that price for more than just the going? i.e. they’re outsiders whatever the ground?
Having said that i had a sneaky bet on Le Beau Bai at 40s the other day!
Re the pending soft ground i can understand why some horses who were around 20s a week or so ago, and prefer soft ground, have shortened over the last couple of days.
But aren’t 40/1 shots that price for more than just the going? i.e. they’re outsiders whatever the ground?
Having said that i had a sneaky bet on Le Beau Bai at 40s the other day!
i think le beau bia isis a decent horse, and 40’s is a great price to get on vf
I really like Giles Cross as a horse, but from what ive seen anything past 3 1/2 miles and i think he’ll be running on empty. He’s locked horns a few times with Synchro, and every time he’s been well left for dead. In the midlands national GC stopped pretty quickly while Sync looked like he could have gone round again. I was worried that Sync might get to far back early on but with the rains coming they should go a more sensible pace and if he’s within a reasonable distance he should go very close. My three –
Synchronised
Neptune collonges
Always rightI really like Giles Cross as a horse, but from what ive seen anything past 3 1/2 miles and i think he’ll be running on empty.
Quite possibly Strawbear, I have another theory.
Everything seems to be coming right for Giles Cross, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him start favourite. Has won on good-soft, but goes particularly well on soft/heavy. Met Le Beau Bai twice this season. Firstly in the Welsh National (3m5½f heavy) going much the best two out, but having to settle for 2nd (for second year running) overhauled to be beaten 7 lengths giving 5 lbs (now 3 lbs better off). Giles Cross improved to win Grand National Trial (3m4f Heavy) at Haydock last time. With a 7 lbs pull (in receipt of 2 lbs, same as on Saturday) this time had just over 11 lengths to spare over 3rd Le Beau Bai. Again looked to be travelling well, but only clung on by a neck from the rallying Neptune Collonges. If 2nd jockey’s claim is taken in to account, Giles Cross is now 2 lb worse off with Paul Nicholls grey.
Looking the Chepstow winner before failing and scrambling home at Haydock might suggest he’s getting to the end of his (stamina) tether. But all Giles Cross’s 5 victories have come by 2 lengths or less and may idle at sound of the crowd. Also 2nd 5 times and never out of the first 3 in 12 completed starts, so genuine enough. Might be wise to either back him each way or put a saver in the betting in running market at very short odds.
Earlier won Southern National (3m4f soft) at Fontwell off a mark of 132 (now 138), gave a stone and 1¾ lengths beating to Rey Nacarado (winner on next start off 2 lbs higher). Giles Cross was one of just 3 to finish from 12 runners (2nd) in 2011 Eider (4m1f heavy) in near unraceable ground. And last of 3 finishers in 18 runner Midlands Grand National (4m1½f heavy). So stays well. Developed an exceptional jumping technique (at least when racing prominently) over normal fences, enabling Giles Cross to often take lengths off rivals. Usual rider Dennis O’Regan can’t do the weight so Paddy Brennan takes over.
Value Is EverythingYou would have to think Giles Cross is going to run his usual good race. It’s like he’s been hovering around the 130’s for the last century and I doubt if a 1lb or two would make much difference to him either way.
For me though he’s highly unlikely to actually win the National as he just lacks that little bit of class it takes nowadays.
He may well be the best EW bet in the race but there’s a huge difference between plodding round in the Welsh Grand National and the real thing at Aintree.
One is usually full of horses with no class whereas the other is full of horse who on their day have loads and as sure as God made little green apples something will show that class on Saturday.
This soft ground may well suit a few but none more than Synchronised.
Those opposing him are adamant he won’t jump these fences. Well they better be right because if he does he’ll eat this lot for breakfast.
As Jonjo points out some horses surprise you and really take to the place while others who normally jump for fun hate it and its all down to that.
I suppose the sensible thing to do is back him in running but I’m a bit dumb and never thought of that until now but at least I got a decent price
Like you Ginger I reckon Giles Cross could start fav but not because the bookies think he’ll win but because they think he can’t win and if they make him short it will decrease their EW liability…he’s very likely to start a false price IMO and the best thing to do is ignore any would be gambles and back your own fancy
Official going at Aintree changed to Good to Soft, Soft in places.
Heavy showers forecast for next 2 days but as is the nature with this type of weather could miss Aintree altogether – on the other hand could fall on the course.
I’ll be keeping my powder dry until Saturday now – some of the horses that’ve shortened up in last day or two could easily drift again nearer the day or on the day itself.Drys out quick at Aintree, dont think the forcast suggests that it will be a mudlarks paradise. Cant see Le Beau Bai having the speed to keep in contention if there is good anywhere in the going description.
Like you Ginger I reckon Giles Cross could start fav but not because the bookies think he’ll win but because they think he can’t win and if they make him short it will decrease their EW liability…he’s very likely to start a false price IMO and the best thing to do is ignore any would be gambles and back your own fancy
Oh I see, it’ll be a bookies conspiracy if Giles Cross is shortened.
I agree HGM, it is best to ignore gambles and "back your own" judgement. Which is why I have, backed horses (hopefully) before they shorten. I believe
IF
it is genuinely soft/heavy Giles Cross has the best chance of all the runners. Therefore on soft/heavy he should start favourite.
Actually – With another horse in the public eye (from the Gold Cup) and ridden by the Champion jockey (who won it a couple of years ago) and won SPOTY. I think it may be Synchronised who starts a "false price" favourite. Instead of the (imo) correctly priced second favourite.
Of course if it is genuinely good-soft Giles Cross does not deserve to be favourite, but should still be one of the favourites. If it’s good he should be around the 20/1 mark.
Value Is EverythingI think you need a 9/10 year old that has won a Grade 1 race and a chase over at least 3 miles, is carrying between 10st 9lb and 11st 5lb and is running with 49 days.
Rare Bob fits the bill and his trainer certainly knows how to ready them for this race. 40/1 is a ridiculous price with some bookies paying 6 places.
Le Beau bai and Always Waining withdrawn at final stage. Hello Bud and Neptune Equester sneak in.
Not one for mudlovers then…?
final field for the national ncluding reserves updated today
le beau bia and always waining removed
vf
Like you Ginger I reckon Giles Cross could start fav but not because the bookies think he’ll win but because they think he can’t win and if they make him short it will decrease their EW liability…he’s very likely to start a false price IMO and the best thing to do is ignore any would be gambles and back your own fancy
Oh I see, it’ll be a bookies conspiracy if Giles Cross is shortened.
I agree HGM, it is best to ignore gambles and "back your own" judgement. Which is why I have, backed horses (hopefully) before they shorten. I believe
IF
it is genuinely soft/heavy Giles Cross has the best chance of all the runners. Therefore on soft/heavy he should start favourite.
Actually – With another horse in the public eye (from the Gold Cup) and ridden by the Champion jockey (who won it a couple of years ago) and won SPOTY. I think it may be Synchronised who starts a "false price" favourite. Instead of the (imo) correctly priced second favourite.
Of course if it is genuinely good-soft Giles Cross does not deserve to be favourite, but should still be one of the favourites. If it’s good he should be around the 20/1 mark.
You honestly believe it’s good to soft? Be as soft as sh!t out there is my bet.
Sychronised winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup thrown in at the weights and ridden by AP McCoy on his beloved soft ground and you say he’s a false favourite…Your mad!
They only way he will be beaten is if he jumps very badly or falls.he’ll win by a street length if he takes to these fences..Big if granted but he surely must start fav.
My point is false fav or big gambles are the name of the game in the National. Despite winning the National Don’t Push It was made favourite by the bookies and not just by weight of money something Rory Delargy pointed out after the race that year and if Betfair are anything to go by he was spot on.
You may recall I had been backing the horse for months at all rates from 60 down to 25 and when I saw the gamble at the course I logged into Betfair thinking I would lay of some of my bets. 2 Minutes before the off he was still 22 on Betfair and he was 10’s and 12’s on the course and I let my cash role to back him in running but ended up so excited I never.
The next day some bookies reckoned it cost them 3 million quid the lying bastids. When JP backs one to win a fortune everyone knows about it………I no of no big win in the millions and I would have heard something if it was the case.
The bookies thought he wouldn’t stay but the jp AP combination made it easy to sucker people in and it backfired on them.
Hegehunter is probably one of the few horse who was genuinely gambled into fav and won. Complie or Die started fav but how much of that was due to genuine cash placed is very debatable. Lots more have been subject to gamble on the day and left trainers and jockeys scratching their heads wondering why.
You can bet something will be backed of the boards on Saturday and there’s every chance it will not even come close to winning.
Wait till they find out AP is switching to Sunnyhillboy
he NOT but it would start some fun if he didI wouldn’t be too surprised to see Vic Venturi run a big one in this. Nice low weight, he’s won here before and 100s is a daft price.
I’m still praying for rain for Giles Cross.
State Of Play has a fantastic e/w chance.
Can Henderson overhaul Nicholls with Shakalakaboomboom…I hope he can.
Those are my four, anyhow. Feel free to laugh.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
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