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Agreed,7/1 is crazy, especially with a few months still to go. Tempted to lay off now against my 25/1 bet a few weeks ago. Is the Bobbyjo a good precursor for the National? TMC failed last year…
Re. WER – will he be as effective on better ground? All his form is on soft. Does jump well though.
Cappa Bleu looks a good bet each way. Don’t think he’s quite good to enough to win, but will stay. Same can be said of SOP. Williams has a very strong hand this year.
I think Niche Market will run a big race. National experience a big plus, likes good ground, stays and jumps well. Will be interesting to see who gets the ride, Skelton perhaps? 33/1 is very good value IMO.
I know what you mean Mark, on the face of it winning a 2 miler doesn’t point to a national type. Only think i would say in his favour is that he has run 4 times over 3m, winning twice and 3rd once.
Of the previous 6 races he has run before this one, he won them all, and none of those were below 2m4f.
I thought at the end of the race that his chance had gone, but he rallied so well to get up I admit I was impressed. He obviously has a will about him, stamina enough to win over 3m, but it seems also enough speed to win over 2m.
If Ted Walsh, who knows a thing or two about National types, keeps him in the race (nice weight of 10st 12lbs) I admit I would be a bit interested in him.
He has been cut to 16s with some bookies as you say (in fact 14s with a couple) but plenty of 20-1 is still available.
Worth a punt?
Really happy with Black Apalachi’s run today. Stayed on very impressively from the rear, showing that the further they go the better he gets. Still has plenty of spirit despite his age and regardless of what the trainer may think; 11-3 is a very nice weight for a horse who after today’s performance should be carrying a lot more. Got 50’s on him. He’s now down to 33’s, so i’m happy with that.
Looked like he was tailing off but he finished well even though I don’t think he was in it to win it, a good prep race and if they can get him there in good shape why can’t a 13yo win it?
Was huge prices on betfair last week, if he takes his place this year I’ll be quite excited.
form updated from weekened runners, will update on any defections at forfiet stage tomorrow
vf
PDB as low as 7s now
Quite frankly a ridiculous price and i’m tempted to lay it all the way til April. Just not bred to win this race.
I agree 7/1 is too short at this stage Mark, but you’d have to take double figure prices if you wanted to lay PDB. Around 10/1 looks fair value to me.
Value Is Everythingive always liked black apalachi and always thought him a national type, unlucky not to have wona national like clan royal
the only thing putting me off is his age 13yrs now
i also like chicago grey, the only thing with him is he is grey can we paint him
vf
PDB as low as 7s now
Quite frankly a ridiculous price and i’m tempted to lay it all the way til April. Just not bred to win this race.
I agree 7/1 is too short at this stage Mark, but you’d have to take double figure prices if you wanted to lay PDB. Around 10/1 looks fair value to me.
Comply Or Die was fair value at 10-1 as he’d proved his stamina in the Eider.
Not touching PDB at all.
I know what you mean Mark, on the face of it winning a 2 miler doesn’t point to a national type. Only think i would say in his favour is that he has run 4 times over 3m, winning twice and 3rd once.
Of the previous 6 races he has run before this one, he won them all, and none of those were below 2m4f.
I thought at the end of the race that his chance had gone, but he rallied so well to get up I admit I was impressed. He obviously has a will about him, stamina enough to win over 3m, but it seems also enough speed to win over 2m.
If Ted Walsh, who knows a thing or two about National types, keeps him in the race (nice weight of 10st 12lbs) I admit I would be a bit interested in him.
He has been cut to 16s with some bookies as you say (in fact 14s with a couple) but plenty of 20-1 is still available.
Worth a punt?
There’s nothing ‘ new ‘ in that run though. It was over an inadequate trip
Not my idea of a National bet. Yet to win over 3 miles outside of points.
Prince De Beauchene goes on good as well as soft ground. Proven at the time of year and on course (although not National course). Won the 3m1f handicap chase at Aintree last year that Don’t Push It had won before his victory.
By an influence for stamina, French Glory who needed 1m4f and didn’t run over further than 13f. Best win Rothmans International. Sire’s sire Saddlers Wells, who although failed to win at 12f, was a good second in the KG VI & QEII Diamond Stakes. Did get horses at shorter, but is more than a fair stamina influence himself. Most sires he’s sired are stamina influences (Old Vic responsible for both Comply Or Die and Don’t Push It). French Glory is out of a mare who was by another stamina influence, French Derby winner Hard To Beat. Although Prince De Beauchene is not a "proven" 4m+ stayer, he settles well and runs as though will get further than the 25 furlongs. Had he been a "proven stayer", he’d be a lot shorter than 10/1. Unless the ground is soft or heavy, you usually need a horse with a bit more speed than one paced plodders of the Welsh National / Eider variety (I wouldn’t describe Comply Or Die as a "plodder"). So strangely enough, unless it comes up very soft, an out and out stayer (eg Le Beau Bai) is often a negative.
Mullins has improved most if not all of his ex-Johnson horses and can’t see another horse looking as well-handicapped.
Value Is EverythingConvinced myself.
So now on:
Niche Market 33/1, Cappa Bleu 33/1 and Prince De Beauchene 10/1.Value Is EverythingPrince De Beauchene goes on good as well as soft ground. Proven at the time of year and on course (although not National course). Won the 3m1f handicap chase at Aintree last year that Don’t Push It had won before his victory.
By an influence for stamina, French Glory who needed 1m4f and didn’t run over further than 13f. Best win Rothmans International. Sire’s sire Saddlers Wells, who although failed to win at 12f, was a good second in the KG VI & QEII Diamond Stakes. Did get horses at shorter, but is more than a fair stamina influence himself. Most sires he’s sired are stamina influences (Old Vic responsible for both Comply Or Die and Don’t Push It). French Glory is out of a mare who was by another stamina influence, French Derby winner Hard To Beat. Although Prince De Beauchene is not a "proven" 4m+ stayer, he settles well and runs as though will get further than the 25 furlongs. Had he been a "proven stayer", he’d be a lot shorter than 10/1. Unless the ground is soft or heavy, you usually need a horse with a bit more speed than one paced plodders of the Welsh National / Eider variety (I wouldn’t describe Comply Or Die as a "plodder"). So strangely enough, unless it comes up very soft, an out and out stayer (eg Le Beau Bai) is often a negative.
Mullins has improved most if not all of his ex-Johnson horses and can’t see another horse looking as well-handicapped.
Though he has won on Good going, the majority of his winning form is on softer. His sire’s record is quite conclusively bad so it is impossible to read anything from that as if he was a typical French Glory it would be straight forward to dismiss him as lacking the class to win the race.
Phil Smith has framed the race in favour of Synchronised at the expense of everything else and has (imo) made a complete mockery of the race even before any events take place on course.Mark TT wrote …..
There’s nothing ‘ new ‘ in that run though. It was over an inadequate trip
Not my idea of a National bet. Yet to win over 3 miles outside of points.
You are absolutely right in that it was over an inadequate trip. However he did run a good race (good enough to win it) and finished like a train, very much looking like a horse that would get much further. Again I accept that his 3m races have been over points, but he has won over 2m5f at Fairyhouse and 2m 6f at Punchestown, and I think there is enough there for Ted Walsh to think this is a National type horse.
He is certainly progressing at a huge rate, and his weight would have been a good lot higher than the 10st 12lbs after another win.
Walsh ran him in the Leopardstown H’cap Chase ( which he won very well over 2m5f) 3 days before the weights were set for the National. I think he did this to make sure he was in the weights.Incidently, Ted Walsh ran Papillon over 2m at Fairyhoue in January before running him over 2m 5f and 2m 4f at Leopardstown in March…..directly before sending him to Aintree where he won the National.
I’m not saying that Seabass is another Papillon, but I certainly would not be put off by him running in a 2m at Naas.
If Walsh thinks this is a National horse, and nothing has gotten past him in his last 7 races, I don’t think I need to dig any deeper……he has a realistic chance, that’s all I’m saying.
deep purples participation up n air, after falling in racng post chase on saturday and apparently bled
vf
Re. WER – will he be as effective on better ground? All his form is on soft. Does jump well though.
WER has 2 wins and 2 seconds from 6 runs on good. His obvious liking for the course a serious oversight by bookies in his price, imo
Prince De Beauchene goes on good as well as soft ground. Proven at the time of year and on course (although not National course). Won the 3m1f handicap chase at Aintree last year that Don’t Push It had won before his victory.
By an influence for stamina, French Glory who needed 1m4f and didn’t run over further than 13f. Best win Rothmans International. Sire’s sire Saddlers Wells, who although failed to win at 12f, was a good second in the KG VI & QEII Diamond Stakes. Did get horses at shorter, but is more than a fair stamina influence himself. Most sires he’s sired are stamina influences (Old Vic responsible for both Comply Or Die and Don’t Push It). French Glory is out of a mare who was by another stamina influence, French Derby winner Hard To Beat. Although Prince De Beauchene is not a "proven" 4m+ stayer, he settles well and runs as though will get further than the 25 furlongs. Had he been a "proven stayer", he’d be a lot shorter than 10/1. Unless the ground is soft or heavy, you usually need a horse with a bit more speed than one paced plodders of the Welsh National / Eider variety (I wouldn’t describe Comply Or Die as a "plodder"). So strangely enough, unless it comes up very soft, an out and out stayer (eg Le Beau Bai) is often a negative.
Mullins has improved most if not all of his ex-Johnson horses and can’t see another horse looking as well-handicapped.
You have to be an out and out stayer. Many 3 mile chasers have floundered on the final circuit and how many horses are in contention in the closing stages of a national ? Sometimes four or five turning for home but usually no more than two at the finish. The last half mile to a mile finds them out.
Comply Or Die was a thorough stayer, proven by his runs in the RSA, Hennessy and the Eider prior to running at Aintree. Same for Mon Mome and the rest.Mark TT wrote …..
There’s nothing ‘ new ‘ in that run though. It was over an inadequate trip
Not my idea of a National bet. Yet to win over 3 miles outside of points.
You are absolutely right in that it was over an inadequate trip. However he did run a good race (good enough to win it) and finished like a train, very much looking like a horse that would get much further. Again I accept that his 3m races have been over points, but he has won over 2m5f at Fairyhouse and 2m 6f at Punchestown, and I think there is enough there for Ted Walsh to think this is a National type horse.
He is certainly progressing at a huge rate, and his weight would have been a good lot higher than the 10st 12lbs after another win.
Walsh ran him in the Leopardstown H’cap Chase ( which he won very well over 2m5f) 3 days before the weights were set for the National. I think he did this to make sure he was in the weights.Incidently, Ted Walsh ran Papillon over 2m at Fairyhoue in January before running him over 2m 5f and 2m 4f at Leopardstown in March…..directly before sending him to Aintree where he won the National.
I’m not saying that Seabass is another Papillon, but I certainly would not be put off by him running in a 2m at Naas.
If Walsh thinks this is a National horse, and nothing has gotten past him in his last 7 races, I don’t think I need to dig any deeper……he has a realistic chance, that’s all I’m saying.
I know where you’re coming from, but Papillon had won a 3 mile chase as a 6 year old before finishing second in the Irish National – much better form than Seabass, who has yet to win at that distance.
That’s what i mean about the price – it makes little sense to shorten that much after winning a race everyone thought it could win over a distance it’s proven at.I think it’s yet another example of the bookies robbing people blind and ‘ creating ‘ gambles that aren’t happening. I doubt there’s that much money on the horse at this stage and his price is a joke.
One placed run over 3 miles and he’s one of the Grand National favourites – it’s ridiculous.
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