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A paste of my blog post:
The weights for the John Smith’s Grand National were announced today. Punters are digging through seeking value, always aware that a large price taken now is worthless should your selection meet with some mishap before the big day on April 14th (the standard non-runner/money back rule does not apply to ante-post betting).
I find it one of the best betting races of the year, far from the lottery that it is often branded. After lengthy consideration, I’d normally bet three or four in the race, but there is one whose price of 25/1 will, I think disappear pretty quickly – Prince De Beauchene, so I’m recommending a bet on him now with Ladbrokes, the only company I can find offering that price (he is as low as 16/1 with other bookmakers.
Top trainer Willie Mullins has spent almost £12,000 on entries in the National and if all 12 of those horses were to turn up on the day (spectacularly unlikely) his entry costs would go up to over £50,000 – an extra amount is paid at each ‘declaration stage’ as the race approaches.
Mr Mullins trained Hedgehunter to win the National in 2005 and he recently took charge of Prince De Beauchene for top owners Andrea and Graham Wylie. The horse has had just one race for the yard, a very encouraging 5th of 25 in a competitive handicap chase, a run which drew the following comment from Racing Post summarisers:
Prince De Beauchene had plenty against him off top weight and ran a fine race. His rider briefly lost his iron down the back and the horse was slightly impeded again shortly afterwards, so it was a fine effort to keep going on a return from 232 days off the track
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PDB was most impressive when winning at Aintree last year – over standard fences, not the National fences (Aintree has two separate tracks). That was his first run on good ground and he jumped extremely well, led for most of the final circuit then battled back after looking beaten. He’s also won on heavy ground and on soft but there’s a fair chance, I think, that good ground might suit him best and there’s a reasonable likelihood he will get that on National day.
PDB has won twice at 20 furlongs, showing that he has speed and is not just a stayer. His Aintree win was over 25 furlongs (the National distance is 36 furlongs) and although it’s impossible to be certain a horse will stay farther than he has already raced over, I believe PDB is worth risking at the price. He has just 10st 6lbs to carry and there’s every chance that Mr Mullins can get quite a bit of improvement out of him.
Good luck
Joe
I’m with you, Peter. The only way there’ll be fewer than 40 runners is if there’s a late withdrawal or two IMVHO.
COOLDINE at 50/1 has a nice weight and though not in same form be intresting if he will turn up.
I also like CHICAGO GREY and PDB as well but i still think JUNIOR will win.
This is how the weights work out in relation to their ORs;
1) 13-P031 SYNCHRONISED (IRE) 9-11-10 Owner: J P McManus, Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill
2) 11/1121- BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 11-11-09 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain +7
3) 115-F31 MIDNIGHT CHASE 10-11-08 Lady Clarke Neil Mulholland +3
4) 1/10P-13 WEIRD AL (IRE) 9-11-08 Brannon, Dennis, Dick, Holden Donald McCain +2
5) 11121/2- BURTON PORT (IRE) 8-11-07 Trevor Hemmings Nicky Henderson +5
6) FF-B111 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 8-11-07 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE +15
7) 2F-0511 CALGARY BAY (IRE) 9-11-06 Camilla Radford Henrietta Knight +5
8. 106-P42 NEPTUNE COLLONGES (FR) 11-11-06 John Hales Paul Nicholls +5
9) F-6041U ALFA BEAT (IRE) 8-11-05 Irvin Naylor John Hanlon IRE +5
10) F01/35-2 PLANET OF SOUND 10-11-05 Charles Lloyd-Baker Philip Hobbs +4
11) 143111 BLAZING TEMPO (IRE) 8-11-04 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE +8
12) 1U30432 ROBERTO GOLDBACK (IRE) 10-11-04 Seamus Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE +10
13) 51U/022/- BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 13-11-03 Gerard Burke Dessie Hughes IRE +2
14) 6/3U34-1 DEEP PURPLE 11-11-03 Paul Green Evan Williams +7
15) 131/321- JUNIOR 9-11-02 Middleham Park Racing LI David Pipe +6
16) 112-021 QUANTITATIVEEASING (IRE) 7-11-02 J P McManus Nicky Henderson +7
17) 3631441 SCOTSIRISH (IRE) 11-11-02 Double R Stables Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE +6
18) 04-5060 TARTAK (FR) 9-11-02 Power Panels Electrical Tim Vaughan +7
19) 2-FU111 APT APPROACH (IRE) 9-11-01 Greenstar Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE +9
20) 6/1155-6 LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 10-11-01 Tony Bloom Nigel Twiston-Davies +7
21) 0F2224 PSYCHO (IRE) 11-11-00 Exors of the late C McClure Tony Martin IRE +10
22) 10-U303 CHICAGO GREY (IRE) 9-10-13 John Earls Gordon Elliott IRE +7
23) 3100-01 TATENEN (FR) 8-10-13 The Stewart Family Richard Rowe +7
24) 22-3011 ACCORDING TO PETE 11-10-12 Peter Nelson Malcolm Jefferson +7
25) F11/-111 SEABASS (IRE) 9-10-12 Gunners Syndicate Ted Walsh IRE +12
26) 000-112 SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (IRE) 8-10-12 Liam Breslin Nicky Henderson +7
27) 11PB-P1 WEST END ROCKER (IRE) 10-10-12 Barry Winfield & Tim Leadbeater Alan King +7
28) 1P-1323 HECTOR’S CHOICE (FR) 8-10-11 James and Jean Potter Richard Lee +7
29) 235/3/1-P MASSINI’S MAGUIRE (IRE) 11-10-11 Alan Peterson David Pipe +7
30) 14P1-B1 ON HIS OWN (IRE) 8-10-11 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE +12
31) 2113-1P ALWAYS RIGHT (IRE) 10-10-10 John Wade John Wade+7
32) 3F2P/-13 CAPPA BLEU (IRE) 10-10-10 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams +7
33) 5U-P20P CRESCENT ISLAND (IRE) 9-10-09 Sarah Bays Jill Scott Sarah MacEchern Nigel Twiston-Davies +6
34) PU-3450 RARE BOB (IRE) 10-10-09 D A Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE +6
35) 63F/-52P MON MOME (FR) 12-10-08 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams +7
36) 12-133F ORGANISEDCONFUSION (IRE) 7-10-08 Grace Dunlop Arthur Moore IRE +7
37) 3/216-B43 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 11-10-08 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE +4
38) P/P-51423 TREACLE (IRE) 11-10-08 Bjorn Nielsen Tom Taaffe IRE +20
39) 0P2F-60 ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 10-10-07 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill +4
40) 3/5P-2304 COOLDINE (IRE) 10-10-07 Jackie Mullins Willie Mullins IRE +4
41) PP//1-11 HOLD ON JULIO (IRE) 9-10-07 Mr & Mrs F Bell, N Farrell, A Marsh Alan King +7
42) 2130-F2 PEARLYSTEPS 9-10-06 The Glazeley Partnership Henry Daly +7
43) U5351-5 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-10-06 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE +7
44) F505-02 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 11-10-05 Graham Regan Paul Nicholls +7
45) //U1/2B/1- ROULEZ COOL 9-10-05 Robert Waley-Cohen Robert Waley-Cohen +1
46) P0-5121 STEWARTS HOUSE (IRE) 10-10-05 Double Trouble Partnership Tim Vaughan +7
47) 03F-30P SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 9-10-05 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill +7
48) 140310 UNCLE JUNIOR (IRE) 11-10-05 Mrs M McMahon Willie Mullins IRE -7
49) 4-U2634 FAIR ALONG (GER) 10-10-04 Alan Peterson Philip Hobbs +6
50) F-03034 KILLYGLEN (IRE) 10-10-04 David McCammon Stuart Crawford IRE +7
51) 2F-4010 QUISCOVER FONTAINE (FR) 8-10-04 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE +5
52) 4-P1300 THARAWAAT (IRE) 7-10-04 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE +9
53) 041-044 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 11-10-03 Mr & Mrs Peter Douglas Peter Bowen +7
54) 42F-63F BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 9-10-03 Noel Glynn Noel Glynn IRE +7
55) P-0P011 LE BEAU BAI (FR) 9-10-03 Glass Half Full Richard Lee +7
56) 144/P3/4- STATE OF PLAY 12-10-03 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams +7
57) 2313P2 SWING BILL (FR) 11-10-03 David Johnson David Pipe +7
58) FP-2661 POSTMASTER 10-10-02 The Bill & Ben Partnership Tim Vaughan +6
59) 30/-003P SHAKERVILZ (FR) 9-10-02 Jackie Mullins Willie Mullins IRE +10
60) 312U5/5- THE PACKAGE 9-10-02 David Johnson David Pipe +7
61) 1P-6P60 WYMOTT (IRE) 8-10-02 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain +7
62) P/5000-P BACKSTAGE (FR) 10-10-01 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE +5
63) 3/P22-12 GILES CROSS (IRE) 10-10-01 KCMS Partnership Victor Dartnall +7
64) PP-5U65 HELLO BUD (IRE) 14-10-00 Seamus Murphy Nigel Twiston-Davies +14
65) 431U0-P IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 12-10-00 Dessie Hughes Dessie Hughes IRE +7
66) 21/10P-1 MIDNIGHT HAZE 10-10-00 Kim Bailey Racing Partnership Kim Bailey +7
67) 500423-F NORTHERN ALLIANCE (IRE) 11-10-00 Irish Rover Syndicate Tony Martin IRE +1
68) 0044B-20 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 12-10-00 Seamus Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE +0
69) 00-143P VIKING BLOND (FR) 7-10-00 Caroline Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies +7
70) R-120U3 QHILIMAR (FR) 8-9-13 Whites of Coventry & Stephen Dunn Charlie Longsdon +7
71) PP24U6 SOME TARGET (IRE) 8-9-10 Captain Conflict Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE +8
72) 0-31504 NEPTUNE EQUESTER 9-9-09 Koo’s Racing Club Brian Ellison +5
73) 32-3P40 ANY CURRENCY (IRE) 9-9-08 Cash Is King Martin Keighley +7
74) 0-42026 OUR ISLAND (IRE) 7-9-07 David Fox Tim Vaughan +7
75) 11PPP0 SCHINDLER’S GOLD (IRE) 10-9-07 Dr Richard & Laura Newland Dr Richard Newland +7
76) 31P/-FP3 ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 11-9-05 Sue Johnson George Bewley +6
77) 660-P42 SADDLERS STORM (IRE) 10-9-05 Billy Moffett, R T & J McLoughlin Tony Martin IRE +9
78) 05-34106 SMOKING ACES (IRE) 8-9-05 J P McManus Tom Taaffe IRE +12
79) 50-PP0F KING FONTAINE (IRE) 9-9-04 Trevor Hemmings Malcolm Jefferson +7
80) 6-12026 ANOTHER PALM (IRE) 7-9-03 M J M Racing Syndicate Noel Meade IRE +10
81) 12-20P3 BALLYVESEY (IRE) 7-9-02 Roddy Owen & Paul Fullagar Peter Bowen +7
82) 0P3-5U2 MINELLA THEATRE (IRE) 9-9-00 Middleham Park Racing XXIV & Dan Gilbert Lawney Hill +7Uncle Junior is a winner, running off 7lbs lower than his OR. But the real big winner is the top weight Synchronised.
The loser? Phil Smith. Embarrassing ‘work’.
My bet on PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE last week at 25/1 looks pretty good, into 16/1 with PP now.
Cooldine interests me. If Planet Of Sound has a good chance, as I believe he has, Cooldine must have a similar one, and is 50s with some bookmakers.
His race against P Of S in the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup in April 2008 was RP-rated 6 lbs inferior to the former.
A multiple Grade 1 winner, he is set to carry 17lbs less than his highest official handicap mark, 11 lbs less than his highest winning mark, and is trained by W P Mullins. A ten-year old, lightly-raced for one reason or another in the past few years. No not Mr Mullins.
The welsh national winner for me on 10-3 jumps out
– hope he gets in … gotta be worth a shout (I’ll have a few on him) . Quite a few nice horses on low weights and some higher up … Junior, Cappa Bleu, even Mon Mome, Hold on Julio. Maybe there is a plot horse there somewhereFirst glance would suggest Cooldine has got in well at the weights.
Burton Port could turn out to be another well in considering the level of form he’s shown in the past
Fair Along is a horse that could well come alive over these fences. Nina got a real tune out of him in The Hennessey, I’ve thought for a while that he’d be an ideal cross country horse and could see him run a big race if faced with a new challange.That’s on a five minute glance on a race I usually have no more than a fiver ew on for fun on the day
My two for the national are Planet of Sound ran a really good race in the Hennessy at Newbury
I also like the look of On His Own that is if he runs?I’m adding West End Rocker, 20s, and Calgary Bay, 25s, to PDB -tipped earlier at 25s, now best price 20s.
Am particularly keen on WER. Key to him seems to be W Hutch who got him switched off beautifully in Becher – rare to see a horse, ears pricked, looking forward to the next GN fence as WER did.
WER has the build and eye for the fences which he seems to relish – a massive bonus and Hutch has long been under-rated as a jock.
The jock, again, seems to have made the difference to Calgary Bay. Elsworth got him well settled off a fast pace at Donny last time after him being a bit fizzy in his previous Cheltenham win. I believe he’ll have little trouble carrying the weight, has class and tactical speed, a good chance of staying, and could be a late improver.
Of the three, WER would be my main choice though I’ve backed them all.
POS is an interesting one; ran a blinder in the Hennessy and looked as if he would stay 4 miles plus as he wasn’t stopping. Has proven class (Guinness Gold Cup winner couple of years ago) and has at least run at Aintree before. Lots of positives…
Not sure about On His Own, could be a bit inexperienced but won the Thyestes in eye-catching fashion, GN is a completely different kettle of fish however.
Niche Market has been etched in my ‘future GN winner’ book for a while, has the right profile and weight can only be a positive. Definite place prospects at big odds.
Apt Approach stands out for me, workable racing weight and has been improving.
The other Irish horse who looks currently interesting is Treacle. Wasn’t impressed with the Hennessy, but he was staying on well in this race and he will have a decent weight.
That said, my concern about assessing form of the Irish horses is that the most recent form is on heavy and April is still a while away.
– hope he gets in … gotta be worth a shout (I’ll have a few on him) . Quite a few nice horses on low weights and some higher up … Junior, Cappa Bleu, even Mon Mome, Hold on Julio. Maybe there is a plot horse there somewhere
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