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“A horse which prefers certain conditions is a “bookmakers horse”?”
You said he needs everything to drop right. I usually find with those horses that it seldom does drop right but people keep on making excuses for them. They are just not reliable betting propositions, certainly not at short prices. And if you are a bookmaker you are always going to take them on.
Personally, I think the horse is potentially brilliant but has a mental problem … a bit like Paul Gascoigne
Burning Victory may well be not as good as some Triumph winners, but he would’ve been beaten very easily had Goshen jumped the last fluently. If thinking of Burning Victory as a Triumph Hurdle placed horse, none of the placed horses have let the form down. ie Doing as well as you’d expect Triumph placed horses to do. Goshen beating them by all by 10+ lengths would’ve been a bloody good Triumph winner.
“What went wrong”?
Injury, that’s what went wrong.
It wasn’t only an unseat.
The horse came back injured.
Horses often don’t come back as good.after injury…
Also their confidence to let themselves down again is sometimes frayed.After Cheltenham he was off the track 197 days before a couple of flat races.
…Then another 62 days off before his first jumps run. Unless proven on form to be best fresh (Goshen ran often as a juvenile) horses being off the course show they haven’t been right. An awful reappearance hanging badly as though still something hurting and also far too keen. (Had jumped slightly right before but not to that extent). Too keen can be just freshness, but his overall performance in that race a sign the horse hasn’t got over its past temperamentally and may be inconsistent thereafter.So Goshen is obviously hard to get right physically and probably mentally too these days.
Goshen was obviously effective on a left handed course in the Triumph, but may need a right handed course nowadays. Wincanton win was pretty good.Value Is Everything“people keep on making excuses for them. They are just not reliable betting propositions, certainly not at short prices. And if you are a bookmaker you are always going to take them on.”
THIS. ^
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’ve talked a lot about this horse on my last two Facebook broadcasts.
“Needs a right-handed track!” – Err, Cheltenham is left-handed and it was running away with the Triumph when it fell. And today was right handed.
“It needs a quagmire as at Wincanton!” – It was no worse than Soft (and the time suggested it was Good to Soft) in that Triumph it should have won.
“It had a hard task with 11st12lb today!” – It was running off 153, if it was still borderline Chanpion Hurdle material it would have won on the bit off 153 today.
That horse needs it Heavy at Wincanton – or a psychiatrist.
Probably the latter.
I’m telling ya – the next big thing with it will be “chasing was always going to be its forte!”
And some will fall for it.
What an expensive horse to follow – dating Paris Hilton would be cheaper.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“What an expensive horse to follow – dating Paris Hilton would be cheaper.”
You got no chance Ian but I reckon I could talk her into becoming my sugar mummy..
As for Goshen
What went right?Blackbeard to conquer the World
My theory is the Triumph run took far too much out of him, even before the mishap and injury at the last. Powering that far clear of the field has to take a huge physical effort. I never understand why jockeys want to win by half the track.
Goshen looked decent when surely in the process of winning the Triumph by ten and he looked none the worse for that when hosing up at Wincanton.
That said, you have to start wondering if anything in behind him at Wincanton that day ran to form.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"With a top class racehorse connections are understandably loathed to retire the horse; especially when Goshen is so young and Moore doesn’t have many top class horses. However, today showed a very high head carriage and also high front legs. Almost backing away at his hurdles – so different than when at his best. Moving as if something’s hurting, poor chap, not his fault. So sad injury means he’s unable to fulfil the undoubted potential shown as a juvenile.
Value Is EverythingSounds plausible tbf, GT.
If Paris Hilton adopts Nathan, maybe she will let Nathan adopt Goshen as a pet?
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"If Paris adopts Nathan nothing else will be needed that requires riding..
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Other than injuries to jockeys or horses I think what happened to Goshen and Jamie in the Triumph was one of the saddest things I’ve ever seen in racing.
Do we have another Goshen, in the making [Shan Blue] well we’ll know more in the spring?
The Racing media have a knack for building horses up after a win.
Horses getting injured and / or losing confidence after a fall happens with some regularity, Troy… And yes, very often when it does occur punters often believe the Racing media had built the horse up.
Sometimes there is no actual injury or loss of confidence and the punter is correct. Punter can also be correct that the horse was over-rated before injury / loss of confidence.
However, sometimes the punter just wants so badly the racing media to be wrong, so subconsciously uses the injury / loss of confidence in order to convince himself the media got it wrong… And sometimes the punter just can’t understand how injuries and / or a bad fall often lead to a.horse losing its form.
Value Is EverythingActually it’s the same with Defi. Too often a really bad defeat is excused away by those who rather not believe but so often it’s the start of a slide that even the best trainer cannot completely fathom
If I dabbled in laying horses, I’m sure this would be an overall profitable route.
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