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Goodwood Day 2

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  • #4772
    Salselon
    Member
    • Total Posts 883

    Hello,

    Just wondering what people fancy today.

    I’m finding it very hard to back Rio de la Plata in the Vintage for a number of reasons. Godolphin’s awful record with 2 year olds and the bounce factor being chief among them, despite running well in a very good time lto, and having the form franked by the 2nd and 3rd. Does he and the relative hype surrounding him remind anyone of both Truly Royal and Measured Tempo? 4/6 is a crazy price, imho.

    Perhaps Tregonings horse is the one here, especially due to the stables excellent record, or perhaps just a straight lay of RdlP.

    For me, there are doubts about the 3 at the head of the market in the Sussex. Spencer’s style of riding is most certainly not suited to a track like Goodwood, where any jockey can find trouble let alone one as prone as Spencer, even allowing for the 8 runner field. I’m not convinced by the form of the St James Palace as both Cockney Rebel and Dutch Art seemed to run well below form.

    Ramonti may suffer from a very hard (ie – a ridiculous amount of whipping by Dettori) race in the Queen Anne, and there is no sign at all that Asiatic boy can win this (ie – it’s not a dirt surface, nor even a fast turf one, and it’s right handed).

    I think Jeremy is great e/w value at around 5/1, very unlucky in the Queen Anne and although he lacks ‘Star Quality’, the same could just as easily be said of Notnowcato, who has the same trainer/jockey combination.

    In the handicap at 4.05, I find Eradicate’s price incredible – he was fancied as a bit of a dark horse for the Group 2 won a few weeks back by Papal Bull, and his run there seems too bad to be true. Add in Mark Johnstons wonderful Goodwood record, and 20 on Betfair seems fantastic value.

    What do you fancy?

    #109997
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3772

    I think the competions thread will give a good indication of some our Goodwood fancies. :wink:

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #110001
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    I think today is difficult on a number of counts. Cant weigh up the Sussex at all.

    Samria Gold is hardly original but Cumani surely wouldnt have been entering this into a group one without good reason? Last time, certainly looked like the trip would suit too

    #110002
    Salselon
    Member
    • Total Posts 883

    I think the competions thread will give a good indication of some our Goodwood fancies. :wink:

    Thanks, have seen it.

    Looking for some in-depth discussion though, as opposed to just a list of horses.

    Regards
    Andrew

    #110008
    LetsGetRacing
    Member
    • Total Posts 1147

    I think it’s hard to fancy anything other than Rio De La Plata with any confidence, but at 4/6 he doesn’t represent a betting proposition for me. He was very impressive last time out though, the form is stacking up (to some degree) and I’d wager that there is plenty more to come. Godolphin’s horses seem to be in decent enough form at the moment – Scriptwriter certainly won well yesterday – and I’m sure even Frankie can’t cock things up in a 7 runner race.

    Il Warrd and Ellmau would be the logical dangers, with slight preference for the former, but they look to have their work cut out.

    The Sussex is all about one horse for me, and that’s Asiatic Boy. His dirt performances have been scintillating and, though this would raise a doubt about his suitability to turf he has won on the surface in Argentina. A potential superstar, and one who wouldn’t be over here without a massive chance.

    The 7/2 available looks massive against an extremely weak favourite.

    Simara Gold wasn’t given the best of rides by Nicky Mackay behind Yaqeen last time, and for my money can be counted as an unlucky loser. The step up to 1m 4f today is sure to bring about improvement, but I suspect Secret Tune has plenty more to offer. He ran an excellent race behind Mahler at Ascot last time, and had previously done well to fend off the challenge of Gull Wing (a subsequent winner) at Musselburgh. He was headed on that occasion, and fell two lengths back, before finding his feet to storm home and win comfortably.

    At 12/1 or bigger he’s worth chancing each-way.

    The other one of major interest for me today is Bauhaus in the opener. I put up Full House (on TRF) at Ascot and will be interested to see how well he goes, but top weight and the concession of 23lb to the selection may just be beyond him.

    I’m not a huge fan of Richard Phillips, and Bauhaus definitely has his quirks, but having developed into a fair hurdler there’s every chance he can take a hand in this race. A light weight of 8-1 is nothing in my view, and 40/1 is worth risking.

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