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Good day for Ballydoyle?

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  • #3016
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    Ballydoyle runners are favourites for 4 of the first 5 races at The Curragh today.

    Friendly Giant, Brave Tin Soldier, Holy Roman Emperor and ivan Denisovic dominate the market. I have to admit, I fancy all of them to win, but surely they can’t have a four-timer of such short-priced favourites?

    If I had to oppose one of them, it would probably be Brave Tin Soldier, as I think he wants 7 furlongs at the moment, and has just been outpaced in the final furlong twice with his 2 starts.

    Friendly Giant would be my favourite of the 4 to win – currently around 13/8 on Betfair. I’ll be putting quite a bit on him i think. It looks to be a weak maiden, and with such good breeding on his side, I really think he’ll win comfortably.

    Can anyone oppose their runners?

    #77278
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    I was going to have a large(ish) bet on Teofilo to win but I have to say I’ve chickened out of it as no-one really seems to fancy Teofilo. I backed Hellvelyn to beat HRE last time and that backfired spectaculary so Its a case of once bitten, twice shy. I think HRE will get the job done, probably by a length.

    I don’t fancy Brave Tin Soldier at the price. Its easy to forget the opposition and there are some useful opponents. Brave Tin Soldier just seems to lack a burst of speed and may want 7f. Strictly on the form book he’s a bit to find too.

    Friendly Giant has a beautiful pedigree but I’d just be a little bit concerned it might want the run. Some of the stables horses have needed the run and whilst there is nothing outstanding in opposition, a few of them are capable of winning. I’d just be a little bit cautious,

    ID is the most likely winner but not a race I’m getting involved in.

    Good to see the Irish putting on a good show:biggrin:

    #77279
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    Yeah I have to agree with you FSL about many of the stable’s runners needed a run or 2 before really kicking into gear.

    But Trinity College, HRE, Horatio Nelson, Malacara, Yellowstone, Chenchikova and Rumplestiltskin all won FTO in the last 2 years, so I’m willing to take the chance that this chap is just as good. I really think this fella could be the dog’s b*llocks for next year.

    #77280
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    :confused:

    Is that good?

    Its the best horse in the race, no doubt about it, its just whether it will show it. Good luck getting a decent price Jackane; you’ll need it!

    #77281
    The Market Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 396

    The opening Maiden is a race I’d leave alone. Ballydoyle have two in the race but how many times have we seen talking horses beaten in maidens? Friendly Giant would appear to be the first string but I wouldn’t be confident.

    I would be tempted to oppose Brave Tin Soldier in the second. I think if he were trained by anyone else he wouldn’t be favourite on the tissue. His form is promising but at the end of the day he’s been beaten in two maidens and his latest conquerer La Presse was a beaten favourite yesterday. Flash McGahon has better form on the book being a listed winner but is stepping up a furlong as is City Of Tribes who finished behind Flash McGahon previously. Who will be better suited by the extra furlong remains to be seen. Invincible Force has won his only two starts over 6f including beating a field of 23 rivals by 2 1/2 lengths last time out. I think Brave Tin Soldier is vulnerable here against those three opponents.

    The National Stakes looks between the two Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor. Spin of a coin for me. Holy Roman Emperor is the Group 1 winner but that was over 6f whereas Teofilo is an unbeaten Group 2 winner at this trip of 7f. I can’t choose between them to be honest, jockeys tactics or a bit of luck or who gets first run could decide this contest. None of the other horses look good enough to trouble the big two.

    Ivan Denisovich takes a huge drop in class in the listed race but may not have everything all his own way. Quinmaster has won his last three starts and is entitled to try the step up from handicap to listed class and conditions will suit. Ugo Fire ran in Group 1 company last time and wasn’t beaten far by Red Evie. This should be easier on paper and but for the O’Brien horses participation it’d be a case of choosing between Ugo Fire and Quinmaster for me. As it is though Ivan Denisovich has to have a big chance in this grade but he’s not used to winning races and I don’t think he’ll find this a walk in the park. Tough one but I expect him to win though it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in history to see him turned over.

    Ballydoyle could win all of these races yet they could just as easily end up winning none. :o. Cracking card, looking forward to it.

    <br>

    (Edited by The Market Man at 5:57 am on Sep. 17, 2006)

    #77282
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    Media is talking this one up as a serious match….yet HRE is 1/2 in places and I dont just think he will win, I think he will win comfortably. Thats not to say Teofilo is not going to be special next year, just right now at 7f on good ground I think HRE will have far too many gears for him.

    I like Brave Tin Soldier alot now that the ground is drying out, and the Curragh will suit him better than York. Hard to work out the maiden while Ivan Denisovich should win later in the card but he is not a horse I would trust.

    #77283
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    In that maiden there is a nice little word about the Ballydoyle second string.

    #77284
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 1:38 am on Sep. 17, 2006[br]I was going to have a large(ish) bet on Teofilo to win but I have to say I’ve chickened out of it as no-one really seems to fancy Teofilo. I backed Hellvelyn to beat HRE last time and that backfired spectaculary so Its a case of once bitten, twice shy. I think HRE will get the job done, probably by a length.

    I don’t fancy Brave Tin Soldier at the price. Its easy to forget the opposition and there are some useful opponents. Brave Tin Soldier just seems to lack a burst of speed and may want 7f. Strictly on the form book he’s a bit to find too.

    Friendly Giant has a beautiful pedigree but I’d just be a little bit concerned it might want the run. Some of the stables horses have needed the run and whilst there is nothing outstanding in opposition, a few of them are capable of winning. I’d just be a little bit cautious,

    ID is the most likely winner but not a race I’m getting involved in.

    Good to see the Irish putting on a good show:biggrin: <br>

    They do say never change your mind :(

    #77285
    The Market Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 396

    Well it turned out they won two and lost two so a decent day for them. Ivan Denisovich scraped home without looking impressive, whereas Brave Tin Soldier was more so.

    I think Ballydoyle may be concerned looking at next seasons classic picture though they must have the utmost respect for Teofilo who looked the real deal today.

    #77286
    Perpetual
    Participant
    • Total Posts 432

    Teofilo was v impressive and if you’ve got decent prices for the 2000 or Derby then have something to dream about over the winter along with Mrs Bolger!

    The current best of 14’s for the Derby may interest me but 4/1 for the Guineas is just taking the p1ss – Skybet hang your heads in shame.

    #77287
    Perpetual
    Participant
    • Total Posts 432

    Edit…..Blue Sq hang your heads… though 5’s from Sky is nothing to be proud of.

    #77288
    bluechariot
    Member
    • Total Posts 569

    I reckon the boys in blue will buy him, he is owned by a syndicate including Bolgers wife

    #77289
    The Market Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 396

    Quote: from bluechariot on 6:24 pm on Sep. 17, 2006[br]I reckon the boys in blue will buy him, he is owned by a syndicate including Bolgers wife

    <br>I bet they try. I’d hate to see him stolen away by Godolphin.

    Hopefully the connections will go down the same path as Sir Percy’s owners did, tell them to bugger off. If they want a Derby favourite, let them breed one.

    #77290
    Perpetual
    Participant
    • Total Posts 432

    Yep agreed – you won’t have many chances to own the winter AP favourite for the Derby.

    #77291
    Perpetual
    Participant
    • Total Posts 432

    I’m not a breeding expert & read elswhere that Danehill is or was a Coolmore stallion. I think Godolophin are avoiding their stock at auction but would it be the same for a private deal??

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