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Just had a 16-1 winner in the form of
Humidor
. How satisfying. Shame my bet was only £2.50 each-way, but you know what they say about responsible gambling and level stakes
I’m in the ‘king’ of ante-post threads, so re: cambridgeshire heritage handicap. For all that’s been said about
Dare to Dance
, i have a soft spot for
Cry Fury
– and at 12/1 i couldn’t resist snaffling up an equally-small each-way bet. Although he had a small field to beat at Goodwood, it was an exceptionally classy performance that did the business. I backed him that day and am remaining loyal to my geegee. So, in grand faux-Kingfisher style.
Ahem…
Cry Fury
£2.50 e/w 12-1 Stan James, Cambridgeshire Heritage Handicap.
Haha, that was entertaining! Anyway, to grow up again; King you’re giving me the heebie-jeebies with all this talk of
Seville
‘s genuine claims for the St Leger, even though i have classified him as a ‘perennial underachiever’ despite my large a-p. He’s the dark horse for the race, no doubt about it, judging by the way
Census
and
Blue Bunting
are trading at half his price. Weather forecasts are inconclusive at the moment; rain for tomorrow is apparently on the cards – a few millimeters are expected – and if that does fall, hopefully it’ll soften up the ground just a tad. I’m going to be looking very closely at all of tomorrow’s festival results to get a truer gauge of the going.
When judging Doncaster ground it is essential to take in to account the headwind. Actual ground conditions are firmer than times indicate.
At the moment I’d call it near enough good-firm. Although that may well change with rain around.
I believe Seville is best ridden prominently, but that might not be easy given plenty of pace and a strong headwind.
Value Is EverythingJust had a 16-1 winner in the form of
Humidor
. How satisfying. Shame my bet was only £2.50 each-way, but you know what they say about responsible gambling and level stakes
Well done Wildman! Pleased to see you staying loyal to your horse,i must say i was surprised to see Frankie riding him as he’s Matthew Davies ride theses days,that was a big tip in itself as was his last run at York,i’m a great believer in keeping the faith with one you judge highly,re.-
Seville
.
When judging Doncaster ground it is essential to take in to account the headwind. Actual ground conditions are firmer than times indicate.
At the moment I’d call it near enough good-firm. Although that may well change with rain around.
I believe Seville is best ridden prominently, but that might not be easy given plenty of pace and a strong headwind.
An interesting analogy as usual Ginge,very rare i get caught out with times affected by headwinds but i certainly did with Frankel in this years 2000gns,mind you he’s caught me out several times since too!
i’m a regular at Doncaster and cant remember the last time it was windy so not too worried in that respect,i expect Seamie will rideSeville
and make all i just cant see any other way he can win other than trying to run them ragged!
I get several e-mails a day asking my opinion about horseracing matters,i have never had so many regarding my thoughts on
Seville
,funnily enough most think i have lost the plot,understandable when this horse has only ever won a Tipperaray maiden but i apply a set of rules that have stood me in good stead for many a year and Seville still tops the lot when compared to his St Leger opponents!
I remember well Mick Halford stating that he thoughtCasamento
was a proper Derby horse well before he won the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy,his opinion was vindicated at Doncaster,admittedly Casamento has since failed as a 3yo but a Group 1 winner is the ultimate accolade,i backed the horse that day at 7/2 so my thoughts at the time were of him,several re-runs later i was convinced i had seen this years Derby winner in the runner-up,
Seville
,wrong again!! However closer inspection shows that had the real Seville turned up that day he would have been placed,this has since been confirmed with Treasure Beach running so consistently,culminating in yet another Group/Grade 1 victory in America.Carlton House adds credence to Sevilles seat at the top table too,had Seville not blotted his copybook in the Derby and had finished in the first 4,he would be trading at 5/1 now and that form would confirm his voltigeur run to be all wrong,i have said it before but Sevilles Paris run is the best individual piece of form on offer and thats backed up to the hilt by the clock,i also think the winner
Meandre
has this years Arc at his mercy,we’ll see! The form figures of Seville look open to question but like i have said before,never judge a book by its cover,this one needs reading from cover to cover,its all there if you look! By the way there is every chance of only 7 horses turning up so it could be 1st 2 only come Saturday,i suggest to take the
Totes 9/1 now
paying 1/4 odds 1st 3.
Joseph O’Brien rides Seville
EDIT: Completely forgot that Jamie Spencer will more than likely partner Fame And Glory.
Seamie Heffernan is surely sick enough that he hasn’t kept the ride on Seville.
Effectively Seville with a 3 lbs penalty for a Group 1, Joseph unable to claim. Disappointing, but he’s near the top as an apprentice. As long as he can get a position on the outer so as not to be surrounded by horses. Not an ideal draw to do that in 5 with two other probale front/prominent runners Rumh and Buthelezi on his outside.
Wish I’d backed Seville each way now, with 9 runners, but it is always risky backing each way ante-post. Doubling stake can lose double if a non-runner. At least without the place part I can use saver bets on something else.
Value Is EverythingNot a race I particularly like from a betting angle. I was a big fan of Seville last season, picked him for my TTTF and even backed him ante post for this (although at shorter odds than he is now
) I just can’t work him out! What happened at York? And Epsom? Was it really just as Gord says – not his true running? He has over 10 lengths to make up on the fav. Not for me.Sea Moon is a good thing on his York run but is that to be truly believed? His trainer was more surprised than anyone.
I have stupidly overlooked Blue Bunting all year and she has just kept on winning. The proven Group 1 winner in the race but I worry that she has had too many hard races.
If I have a bet it will be a little each way on Masked Marvel for the inform John Gosden. He easily beat the very useful Namibian at Goodwood in May before running very respectably in the Derby. He beat Census last time out and yet is almost twice the price at 8-1. I know Census was gaining hand over fist at Newmarket but it might just have been that MM was idling having been in front a long way out and I liked the way he lengthened to put distance between himself and his field. This has been his target ever since Newmarket and his trainer knows better than most how to win this race. He’ll do for me.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I just can’t work him out! What happened at York? And Epsom? Was it really just as Gord says – not his true running? He has over 10 lengths to make up on the fav. Not for me.
Joni,the clock never lies! The Voltigeur was a crawl as was the Dante and Seville couldn’t pick up off such slow sections particularly over trips that haven’t brought out this progressive stayers stamina resources,look at his Curragh run over a much stronger pace,he was staying on well that day and was beaten by a horse with a bit more toe,(Treasure Beach),but still took Carlton Houses scalp,then look at the Grand Prix de Paris,a race in which Seville maintained sections that took the finishing kick out of his Irish Derby conqueror and again wasn’t stopping but was beaten by what could well be an exceptional colt in
Meandre
.If young Joseph rides Seville like he rides Memphis Tennessee he will take some catching imo.
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Sectionals
– at Longchamp and the Curragh? You’re just as full of crap as you always were.
He’s a boat – but as this is a boat race, he might just place.
Sea Moon is seen as a Cup horse, will improve again for this longer trip, and should have Seville for breakfast.reet TAPK would say ‘i have read your ‘contributions’ for the past 3 years and to this day you haven’t put up a winner of note,you are a great one for commenting with the wisdom of hindsight,
Workforce
springs to mind and as for ‘Boats’,you constantly called
Fame and Glory
one before he won the Coronation stakes and Gold Cup,talking of Gold cups who was it that said
Imperial Commander
wouldn’t finish in the first 3 the year i told you he would win at 16/1,in fact i’m sure we had a little private wager!
Enough said’reet being Kingfisher i would suggest for all the crap i write i always end up finding that little gem amongst it! I’ll let the horses do the talking tomorrow!
A week too late and somewhat shorter than he would have been at Haydock but Midsummer Sun resumed his winning ways today looking like he might just meet the high expectations his stable had for him.
I see Seville is drifting like a barge – probably the drying ground which seems to be a negative for Sea Moon as well. Bit if money for MM and I think it will be between him and Blue Bunting.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
On this forum I have put up Damika in the Great St Wilfrid last year 20/1, Aaim To Prosper in the Ces 22/1, Markab in the Haydock Sprint 16/1, Starspangledbanner in the Golden Jubilee 14/1 and more recently Hamish McGonagall ew in the Nunthorpe 40/1, Moyenne Corniche in the Ebor 28/1, among others (and a few ‘unlucky’ losers
).If my record is anything to go by then my tip,
Masked Marvel
, is sure to run very well (there I go jinxing myself). I have him backed at 16/1 before and after Census rolled up in the Geoffrey Freer. I can’t really say I’d be as confident about the bet at his current price but the horse knows not his price.
Also, heed
Secret Witness
in the Portland at Doncaster. He’s carrying no weight, second in this last year albeit in a weaker race, but has finished in the first two there 3/4 times. 5 and a half furlongs will suit him perfect, won from similar draw at the track last time and will be suited by the strong pace and is well over priced at 33/1 despite "only" 4 places on offer.
despite "only" 4 places on offer.
First 5 on William Hill i believe, 1/4 odds. Early morning odds show
Sea Moon
on the drift practically everywhere. Doncaster ground has now been classified as good to firm – must be why, no? If, post-race, it transpires that the favourite really
is
a neighing juggernaut, 2-1 is going to look like a stunning deal. Although i’m not one for dutching, I popped a few points on
Masked Marvel
and
Census
last night, in addition to my old
Seville
bet, and that’s primarily because i think one of them has to fill the podium if
Blue Bunting
and
Sea Moon
perform to the standard that’s expected of them – plus at 6’s and 8’s for strong-chance places it added up. Thought i’d see what it’s like on Ginger’s side of the fence
Why am i so reluctant to put any money down on a dual classic winner when everybody suddenly has Blue Bunting
fever? The ground’s going in her favour, but uh-oh, is that a rain cloud on the horizon?
Also King, re: staying loyal. Had
Top Cop
and
Reply
running on Thursday. 20-1 winner, yes? Nope, picked the wrong one. Haha. Can’t win them all!
My favourite geegee as of right now,
Cry Fury
, runs today. If Cry runs a big race, the 12-1 i got on him for the Cambridgeshire is going to disappear quicker than the sentimental point i put on
Tax Free
for the Portland.
Man, what a roller-coaster of a day.
Somehow
i made a decent profit out of that, what with backing
Nocturnal Affair
and, low and behold, a thoroughly satisfying win for
Masked Marvel
. Shame about
Cry Fury
making my cambridgeshire ante-post basically redundant, but hey, that’s racing! A bittersweet aftermath to the St Leger no doubt, as this particular village horseshoe pub was rather fond of a certain geegee that will go unnamed
Wound-licking time! But then again, Blue Bunting
failed as miserably as i thought she might do, so that’s some consolation.
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I have read your ‘contributions’ for the past 3 years and to this day you haven’t put up a winner of note,you are a great one for commenting with the wisdom of hindsight,
Workforce
springs to mind and as for ‘Boats’,you constantly called
Fame and Glory
one
OMG!
I’ve put Workforce up as a selection on this forum – clear and unequivocal, and well before each race – for every 1 of his 3 wins since his debut, and to claim otherwise just illustrates the load of crap you talk.
Much like telling us FAG isn’t a boat – because he won a boat race.If I have a bet it will be a little each way on Masked Marvel for the inform John Gosden. He easily beat the very useful Namibian at Goodwood in May before running very respectably in the Derby. He beat Census last time out and yet is almost twice the price at 8-1. I know Census was gaining hand over fist at Newmarket but it might just have been that MM was idling having been in front a long way out and I liked the way he lengthened to put distance between himself and his field. This has been his target ever since Newmarket and his trainer knows better than most how to win this race. He’ll do for me.
Another weekend another Group 1 winner!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
i’m a regular at Doncaster and cant remember the last time it was windy so not too worried in that respect,i expect Seamie will ride
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